What do the hetero pollsters think?
He has a point. Gallup’s numbers are so far from everyone else that it’s difficult to believe. Hoping it’s true, but we’ll have to wait and see.
I’m curious about the States which changed their electoral votes to reflect national popular vote and what impact this would have on Romney.
No actually they do not. They all show Romney leading. Some sligtjly, some seriously. Only the Media polls have any good news for Obama. Nate's problem is he wants to selectively cherry pick the polls that validate his personal political opinions. Basically any MEDIA poll should be thrown out right from the start. They are designed to drive headlines, not to find fact. Looking at the professional polling, Obama is in trouble. Nate want to ignore those polls to cling to the polling that tells him what he wants to hear. Hopefully this election will be the end of Nate Silver's media hyped reputation. He has gone WAY out on a limb here. If the professional polling is correct, and he is this far wrong, his career is over.
The New York Times... Now why would I believe anything they say? Come to think of it, I don’t believe anything they say. They are nothing but liberal waste. As a matter of fact, I’m not believing anybody’s poll from now to Nov 6th. I will trust the anger that I feel instead. Screw the polls.
Nate Silver is wrong and Gallup is correct.
It predicted Obama’s win down to the final point on Oct 18th, 2008.
He can’t dismiss it simply because it shows a result he doesn’t like. I think Mitt Romney holds a very strong lead. Other pollsters just don’t want to come out and say it.
Every one knows Romney is going to win this election and it won’t be a close one at all.
The poor communists. They just can’t get their heads around the fact that freedom lovers are rejecting them once again. LOL! They’ll get over it. There’s a “utopia” for them somewhere. It’s just not on THIS planet.
With two exceptions, they’ve always picked the winner, back to FDR: http://www.gallup.com/poll/9442/election-polls-accuracy-record-presidential-elections.aspx
Nate Silver ragging on Rasmussen, the most accurate pollster of 2008:
Polls aren’t the only measure of how a race is going. Look at other factors.
Suffolk polling pulled out of FL, VA, and NC a week or two ago. Romney has pulled resources out of NC.
State polls show a close race in traditionally Dem states like WI, PA, MI and IA. NH and OH also show close races. Romney is ahead in CO.
Romney is absolutely killing in traditionally conservative states, so it’s not hard to believe that nationally his numbers would be strong.
Maybe he’s not leading by 6 or 7 points nationally, but 3 to 4 points wouldn’t be hard to believe and that would be enough for him to win the electoral college, IMO.
“However, the polls results are deeply inconsistent with the results that other polling firms are showing in the presidential race”
Maybe Nate forgot to read the recent UPI and KOS/PPP polls also showing a significant Romney lead.
It is interesting that Gallup is so different than the others. I think it’s because they are not weighting their samples, but letting their likely voter screen drive the results. It seems many of the polls are weighting the samples. I think Rasmussen is weighting it +4 Dem.
One thing I don’t understand is the polls agree that Romney is winning among Independents, by 7 points or so. Whoever has done this in the past has won. Why are they thinking it will be different this time?
dang..the lib media going in on Gallup. I assume Gallup is gonna fall back in line soon.
I wonder if the Obama campaign is still sharing their internal polling with him