First, we are past the point of even watching national polls. They mean nothing at this point. This election is down to 4-6 states.
Secondly, watch the campaigns and what they are doing and where they are going. They both have much better polling and other tracking tools about the state of the race.
Suffolk said a week ago, that VA, NC, and FL were all in Romney’s corner, so they were moving to other states. Now we see that being played out in NC. And the polls in VA and FL are trending pretty strongly Romney.
Of course Obama can’t come out and say they are giving up on FL or VA (or even NC). Because that would cause massive panic in their organizations and with the voters. But the media and the close insiders know what is going on.
To me, they are spending most of their time in OH. Seems to be political ground zero for both campaigns.