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FiveThirtyEight Blog Doubles Down: Ohio a Near Lock for Obama
The New York Times, FiveThirtyEight Blog | October 27, 2012 | nwrep

Posted on 10/27/2012 3:39:14 PM PDT by nwrep

Click on the link below for the analysis.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/27/oct-26-state-poll-averages-usually-call-election-right/

There are some good points that this blog makes about why Ohio might be out of reach for Romney.

It boils down to the fact that all polls show the race as tied as best in Ohio - not a single poll has shown R&R leading there. The average lead for 0 based on OH state polls is around 2 points, enough to put him over the top in Ohio based on historical trends correlating polls to actual results.

I have read articles here from prognosticators, tea leaf readers and political analysts from NRO who passionately argue that:

a. We have closed the gap in early polling and will have an easier time overcoming the D+ advantage on election day

b. Due to a D advantage in early polling, likely voter screens are contaminated, and therefore we should ignore the polls.

While (a) sounds like a reasonable argument, (b) sounds like denial. State level polling (which I believe more than passionate entreaties by earnest Freepers) is still not showing R&R in a comfortable position there.

Without Ohio, it becomes a dice roll, other polls showing close races in WI, MI, PA, NV notwithstanding, since we cannot bank on those states.

The only thing going for R&R right now is comfortable leads in Gallup and Rasmussen national polls. The state by state picture is very different, and points to 0 leading in EVs. Talk of a R&R landslide is dangerous and counter-productive at this point.

Comments?


TOPICS: FReeper Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Ohio
KEYWORDS: 2012swingstates; bloggersandpersonal; dailykos; electionpolls2012; natesilver; oh2012; polls2012; vanity
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1 posted on 10/27/2012 3:39:18 PM PDT by nwrep
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To: nwrep



2 posted on 10/27/2012 3:40:17 PM PDT by tomkat
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To: tomkat

Well illustrated, and ditto.


3 posted on 10/27/2012 3:43:14 PM PDT by foundedonpurpose (It's time for a fundamental restoration, of our country's principles!)
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To: tomkat

538 must be drinking the good stuff.


4 posted on 10/27/2012 3:44:26 PM PDT by rdl6989 (January 20, 2013 The end of an error.)
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To: nwrep; All
"FiveThirtyEight Blog Doubles Down:
Ohio a Near Lock for Obama"



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5 posted on 10/27/2012 3:45:16 PM PDT by musicman (Until I see the REAL Long Form Vault BC, he's just "PRES__ENT" Obama = Without "ID")
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To: foundedonpurpose

I would love to see a poll or two showing an OH lead for Romney just to shut Silver and his minions up.


6 posted on 10/27/2012 3:45:20 PM PDT by tatown (Obama was right, it was a 'one term proposition')
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To: nwrep

BULLSHYTE! Romney’s leading all the internals, and he’ll win comfortably. Should’ve added a barf alert.


7 posted on 10/27/2012 3:46:51 PM PDT by MuttTheHoople (Pray for Joe Biden- Proverbs 29:9)
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To: nwrep

Where should an incumbent who expects to be re-elected be in Ohio at this point? Something tells me tied isn’t the place.


8 posted on 10/27/2012 3:46:55 PM PDT by John W (Viva Cristo Rey!)
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To: nwrep

So what should I do? Choose pessimism and not optimism? Wring my hands? Cry like a baby? Slit my wrists? Drink? Strangle a liberal? Sell my house and give all the proceeds to Romney?

Seriously. Why the eff are you posting this rot? What’s the point?


9 posted on 10/27/2012 3:47:48 PM PDT by Nervous Tick ("You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.")
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To: tatown

Nate Silver : A) Works for the NY Times, B) (enough said)...


10 posted on 10/27/2012 3:47:59 PM PDT by gswilder
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To: John W

I know many Democrats who have requested absentee ballots, and are not voting for Obama - they also aren’t factoring in the Independents.

So, we’ll see what happens.


11 posted on 10/27/2012 3:48:51 PM PDT by Catsrus (Ma)
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To: gswilder

Which is why I’d like to see him shut effin down.


12 posted on 10/27/2012 3:50:08 PM PDT by tatown (Obama was right, it was a 'one term proposition')
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To: nwrep

So this is basically propaganda based on other propaganda.


13 posted on 10/27/2012 3:50:21 PM PDT by Repeal 16-17 (Let me know when the Shooting starts.)
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To: nwrep

Mon Oct 01 2012 07:47:21 GMT-0700 (Pacific Daylight Time) · 41 of 64

nwrep to Happy Rain
I think it is a smart move, motivated, as you say, by Realpolitik. The Presidential race seems all but lost, unless R&R can turn it around in the last 4 weeks, which seems increasingly unlikely. Hence, we need to do all we can to keep the House and win the Senate to blunt the edge of 0’s 2nd term.


14 posted on 10/27/2012 3:50:31 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: nwrep

Suffolk and Rasmussen have this tied at 47. The POS POTUS can’t even crack 50 in most of these polls that are using a 2008 voter turnout model.


15 posted on 10/27/2012 3:50:58 PM PDT by NoobRep
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To: gswilder

In the real world when the challenger is tied in the polls the undecideds always break for him/her

When you are ahead by double digits with indys you are winning


16 posted on 10/27/2012 3:51:01 PM PDT by italianquaker (I did my part, voted for Romney,donated and spread the word.)
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To: John W

Even if this was true, which is bs, Obama is polling so poorly that he almost has to win every toss-up state to get re-elected.

Just winning Ohio will not do it.


17 posted on 10/27/2012 3:52:06 PM PDT by Jonty30 (What Islam and secularism have in common is that they are both death cults.)
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To: nwrep
Comments?

Yeah. We don't need Ohio.

18 posted on 10/27/2012 3:52:29 PM PDT by MeanGreen2008
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To: Catsrus

If RR are up 4-5 points nationally, they will not lose.

Romney has been at 50% in Gallup for TWELVE(12) straight days. Romney has been at 50% in RAS for FIVE(5) straight days. Obama has not been above 48% in either poll, EVER.

Ohio will come along. Most of the recent & reliable polls show it a dead heat. That is a big improvement over the last 2 weeks for Romney. I think this will you will begin to see a few polls with Romney up. And remember that virtually every OH poll is showing a D+ advantage greater than 2008. Thats NOT going to happen. And that is why Romney is behind/tied in every OH poll.


19 posted on 10/27/2012 3:54:18 PM PDT by gswilder
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To: nwrep

Nate Silver’s analyses: Garbage in, garbage out. I only believe Rasmussen when it comes to the state polls (and national, too, for that matter). Call me naive or too optimistic, but last I checked Ras has OH tied at 48%, and I also don’t get the sense R&R are panicked about ANYTHING right now. People should ignore this thread.


20 posted on 10/27/2012 3:54:59 PM PDT by BlueStateRightist
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To: nwrep
The only thing going for R&R right now is comfortable leads in Gallup and Rasmussen national polls.

LOL! And the only thing going for Angelina Jolie are her good looks too.

This narrative is turning into a joke.

All Romney has are 4-5 point leads in the two most respected national polls. And all he has is the historical fact that no candidate has ever garnered 50% of the national vote and lost. Nor has any candidate ever beaten his opponent by more than 1% in the national vote and lost.

Other than that, Romney is in big trouble.
21 posted on 10/27/2012 3:55:01 PM PDT by nhwingut (Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)
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To: nwrep

OH polls from Friday ranged from Romney +21 with indies to Obama +9. Rasmussen has it almost even I believe ? The question is whether indies are moving to Obama or not ? Are they making an effort to report as independents in the polls? If they are trending to O the only thing I can think of is the Mourdock and Akin comments being heavily exploited by the O campaign and having an effect. Hope I’m wrong.


22 posted on 10/27/2012 3:55:16 PM PDT by Bigjimslade
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To: tatown

Look around, at this point anything is possible. How many of these polls over sample the insane by 6 to 9 points.


23 posted on 10/27/2012 3:55:55 PM PDT by foundedonpurpose (It's time for a fundamental restoration, of our country's principles!)
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To: Catsrus
How gutless must a person be to not go to a polling place to vote ?
Opting instead to betray their 'principles' with an absentee ballot, as though no one will know that way !

Entirely consistent with the typical lack of integrity of the traitorous left.



             

24 posted on 10/27/2012 3:56:46 PM PDT by tomkat
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To: nwrep
There are some good points that this blog makes...

Really? I went through the blog paragraph by paragraph and chart by chart and I could not find any.

What I found was some lefty whistling past the graveyard. Not at a single location did I see the blogger examining the poll internals. He just accepts the various poll results on their face despite the fact that we know that they have serious problems with their methodologies that cast doubts on the overall announced results in many cases.

This is especially true with the Ohio polls which ALL assume totally unrealistic turnout models.

While I agree with the poster's caution against overconfidence, the picture this blogger creates is nothing but wishful thinking on his part.

These links lead to more realistic analyses:

http://www.unskewedpolls.com/unskewed_projection_2012%20president_02.cfm

http://www.unskewedpolls.com/2012electorate.cfm

25 posted on 10/27/2012 3:57:50 PM PDT by John Valentine (Deep in the Heart of Texas)
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To: nwrep; LS

I think 538 is whistling past the graveyard. Click below for some analyses and facts that run directly contrary to Silver’s argument:

http://washingtonexaminer.com/ohio-shocker-gop-closes-early-voting-gap-boosting-romney/article/2509838


26 posted on 10/27/2012 3:57:53 PM PDT by Hawthorn
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To: nwrep

Somali power! LOL


27 posted on 10/27/2012 3:59:03 PM PDT by Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America
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To: nwrep

Friggin Court Jesters....

I have it the other way for R&R


28 posted on 10/27/2012 4:00:02 PM PDT by Vendome (Don't take life so seriously, you won't live through it anyway)
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To: nwrep

Adrian Gray:


I have always been a believer in data telling me the full story. Truth is, nobody knows what will happen on Election Day. But here is what we do know: 220,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio compared with 2008. And 30,000 more Republicans have cast their ballots compared with four years ago. That is a 250,000-vote net increase for a state Obama won by 260,000 votes in 2008.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82948.html#ixzz2AXj9cgCl


29 posted on 10/27/2012 4:00:19 PM PDT by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)
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To: nwrep

Out to dinner last night with a couple who were told by a strong source, the Romney internals are terrific, including Ohio. Sure hope so.


30 posted on 10/27/2012 4:01:17 PM PDT by Toespi
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To: BlueStateRightist

This Rasmussen update is actually 3 days old: “The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters, taken the night after the final presidential debate, shows both President Obama and Mitt Romney attracting 48% of the vote. Two percent (2%) plan to vote for some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.”


31 posted on 10/27/2012 4:01:48 PM PDT by BlueStateRightist
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To: Bigjimslade
The question is whether indies are moving to Obama or not ?

The Indies are trending to Obama at a rate that Rasmussen shows Romney leading Indies today by 23, and by 15 in the Swing State Tracker.

Only 1, of the last 20, Ohio polls (TIME) showed Obama leading indies (Rasmussen's was essentially a tie).

You have mentioned Akin and Murdock on a couple of threads. Obama has lost Indies since the Murdock story broke (Akin is old news and is actually about caught up to Air Claire). Look at the trends in Rasmussen, ABC/WaPo and Gallup from the beginning of the week. Obama's approval today is 5 points underwater. It was +8 earlier in the week.
32 posted on 10/27/2012 4:01:54 PM PDT by nhwingut (Single Issue Voter: Obama Must Go!)
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To: nwrep
Unfortunately for the NEW YORK TIMES, there
are sentient Americans in Ohio.

And THEY recognize the undocumented impostor for
the lying Communist vermin that he is.


33 posted on 10/27/2012 4:03:09 PM PDT by Diogenesis (Vi veri veniversum vivus vici)
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To: nwrep
Any particular reason why you'd post a thread, soliciting 'comments', and then fail to respond to 30+ posts with even a token reply ?


             

34 posted on 10/27/2012 4:04:09 PM PDT by tomkat
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To: Bigjimslade

Where are you seeing a poll that shows Obama up by nine points among independents?


35 posted on 10/27/2012 4:04:33 PM PDT by Jaguarmike
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To: nwrep

If Jug Ears wins Ohio, I will not be offended by any insults that others may direct at it.


36 posted on 10/27/2012 4:04:38 PM PDT by windsorknot
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To: Bigjimslade

Where are you seeing a poll that shows Obama up by nine points among independents?


37 posted on 10/27/2012 4:04:50 PM PDT by Jaguarmike
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To: Nervous Tick

I wouldn’t give drinking or strangling liberals such short shrift.


38 posted on 10/27/2012 4:07:37 PM PDT by gundog (Help us, Nairobi-Wan Kenobi...you're our only hope.)
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To: nwrep

This guy thinks poorly of silver also.

http://hillbuzz.org/an-open-letter-to-ace-at-ace-of-spades-knock-it-off-with-the-fear-porn-already-you-big-sissy-53017


39 posted on 10/27/2012 4:07:52 PM PDT by Bobalu (It is not obama we are fighting, it is the media.)
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To: nwrep

Im pretty sure someone is either right or wrong about this


40 posted on 10/27/2012 4:10:39 PM PDT by woofie (It takes three villages and a forest of woodland creatures to raise a child in Obamaville)
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To: nwrep

...By NATE SILVER...

nuff said


41 posted on 10/27/2012 4:11:06 PM PDT by traderrob6
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To: Nervous Tick

Wait before you go remember this was in the NY Times that bastion of truth. We should all just forget about voting if the Times says Obama has Ohio. Our time would be better spent learning the um um um Obama song! /s


42 posted on 10/27/2012 4:11:34 PM PDT by nclaurel
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To: nhwingut

The conventional (and only) wisdom is that Romney needs OH or WI, CO, NH, NV and IA or some combination thereof. Is there any polling that shows him with a real lead in those states? Don’t believe so. Maybe even or up in one of them, but he does not have what he needs as of now. So the national polls are good news but the states are really lagging at this point.

I believe that is the point that was being made.


43 posted on 10/27/2012 4:11:44 PM PDT by paul544
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To: nwrep

As an oldtime FReeper, I am disturbed by the over-confidence (arrogance?) of far too many of my brethren who think R/R are coasting to victory on some kind of wave. You guys need to understand how Obama has HAMMERED Romney with outsourcing and Bain lies in Ohio for 4 months, eroding his position with white blue collar males. Romney has FAILED to counter this onslaught with ads exposing Obama’s stimulus outsourcing, GE links, Wall St. ties and failure to prosecute a SINGLE financial exec from Wall St. or Fannie Mae. The battle has bee one-sided, and the early vote has favored Obama. In addition Obama is engaging is MASSIVE voter fraud in Ohio - not just the Somali shenanigans we see today, but also student from out of state registering to vote from temporary, shared addresses which will NEVER be checked - spiking the Obama vote totals by potentially a thousands or more votes. This is NOT a fair fight, and I do not see R/R fighting dirty on the ground. I am VERY concerned this race is already lost in a fog of fraud in Ohio.


44 posted on 10/27/2012 4:12:07 PM PDT by montag813
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To: nwrep

From the signs I see in my little town of Northfield Center, midway between Cleveland and Akron, Romney is not doing well. Yard signs are at least 5/6 to 1 for obama. Disappointing that so many of my neighbors are completely braindead!


45 posted on 10/27/2012 4:12:12 PM PDT by Dr. Bogus Pachysandra ( Ya can't pick up a turd by the clean end!)
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To: tatown
Which is why I’d like to see him shut effin down.

Silver, like the rest of the New York Times writers, is simply giving his readers what they want to read.

A goodly number of political writers have learned that it's just "good business" (see Buchanan, Patrick -- who may have invented the genre).

46 posted on 10/27/2012 4:12:34 PM PDT by okie01 (THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA; Ignorance on parade.)
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To: nwrep

Your “concern” for R+R in Ohio is making me cry! /S


47 posted on 10/27/2012 4:13:05 PM PDT by entropy12 (Romney/Ryan 2012... Send Obama back to Chicago/Hawaii/Kenya/Indonesia wherever)
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To: tomkat

I want an FR “like” button for that!


48 posted on 10/27/2012 4:13:22 PM PDT by wireman
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To: Dr. Bogus Pachysandra

Wow I used to live near that area. It was always loaded with ethnic Dems but must have gotten much worse.
Leaving 30 yrs ago was the best thing I ever did. Thanks to “boy wonder” Dennis Kuchinich for inspiring me to head for the exit.


49 posted on 10/27/2012 4:16:36 PM PDT by nascarnation (Defeat Baraq 2012. Deport Baraq 2013)
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To: NoobRep

The turnout model of turnout models has this +1.5 D OVER 2008 turnout. (It’s either + 6 or +6.5 to +4.5 or +5 actual 2008).

I don’t see how the Repub is gaining in *every* state EXCEPT Ohio, where Obama is outperforming 2008 results.


50 posted on 10/27/2012 4:16:44 PM PDT by Tea Party Terrorist (Your tattoo looks stupid.)
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