Skip to comments.FiveThirtyEight Blog Doubles Down: Ohio a Near Lock for Obama
Posted on 10/27/2012 3:39:14 PM PDT by nwrep
Click on the link below for the analysis.
There are some good points that this blog makes about why Ohio might be out of reach for Romney.
It boils down to the fact that all polls show the race as tied as best in Ohio - not a single poll has shown R&R leading there. The average lead for 0 based on OH state polls is around 2 points, enough to put him over the top in Ohio based on historical trends correlating polls to actual results.
I have read articles here from prognosticators, tea leaf readers and political analysts from NRO who passionately argue that:
a. We have closed the gap in early polling and will have an easier time overcoming the D+ advantage on election day
b. Due to a D advantage in early polling, likely voter screens are contaminated, and therefore we should ignore the polls.
While (a) sounds like a reasonable argument, (b) sounds like denial. State level polling (which I believe more than passionate entreaties by earnest Freepers) is still not showing R&R in a comfortable position there.
Without Ohio, it becomes a dice roll, other polls showing close races in WI, MI, PA, NV notwithstanding, since we cannot bank on those states.
The only thing going for R&R right now is comfortable leads in Gallup and Rasmussen national polls. The state by state picture is very different, and points to 0 leading in EVs. Talk of a R&R landslide is dangerous and counter-productive at this point.
Well illustrated, and ditto.
538 must be drinking the good stuff.
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I would love to see a poll or two showing an OH lead for Romney just to shut Silver and his minions up.
BULLSHYTE! Romney’s leading all the internals, and he’ll win comfortably. Should’ve added a barf alert.
Where should an incumbent who expects to be re-elected be in Ohio at this point? Something tells me tied isn’t the place.
So what should I do? Choose pessimism and not optimism? Wring my hands? Cry like a baby? Slit my wrists? Drink? Strangle a liberal? Sell my house and give all the proceeds to Romney?
Seriously. Why the eff are you posting this rot? What’s the point?
Nate Silver : A) Works for the NY Times, B) (enough said)...
I know many Democrats who have requested absentee ballots, and are not voting for Obama - they also aren’t factoring in the Independents.
So, we’ll see what happens.
Which is why I’d like to see him shut effin down.
So this is basically propaganda based on other propaganda.
Mon Oct 01 2012 07:47:21 GMT-0700 (Pacific Daylight Time) · 41 of 64
nwrep to Happy Rain
I think it is a smart move, motivated, as you say, by Realpolitik. The Presidential race seems all but lost, unless R&R can turn it around in the last 4 weeks, which seems increasingly unlikely. Hence, we need to do all we can to keep the House and win the Senate to blunt the edge of 0s 2nd term.
Suffolk and Rasmussen have this tied at 47. The POS POTUS can’t even crack 50 in most of these polls that are using a 2008 voter turnout model.
In the real world when the challenger is tied in the polls the undecideds always break for him/her
When you are ahead by double digits with indys you are winning
Even if this was true, which is bs, Obama is polling so poorly that he almost has to win every toss-up state to get re-elected.
Just winning Ohio will not do it.
Yeah. We don't need Ohio.
If RR are up 4-5 points nationally, they will not lose.
Romney has been at 50% in Gallup for TWELVE(12) straight days. Romney has been at 50% in RAS for FIVE(5) straight days. Obama has not been above 48% in either poll, EVER.
Ohio will come along. Most of the recent & reliable polls show it a dead heat. That is a big improvement over the last 2 weeks for Romney. I think this will you will begin to see a few polls with Romney up. And remember that virtually every OH poll is showing a D+ advantage greater than 2008. Thats NOT going to happen. And that is why Romney is behind/tied in every OH poll.
Nate Silver’s analyses: Garbage in, garbage out. I only believe Rasmussen when it comes to the state polls (and national, too, for that matter). Call me naive or too optimistic, but last I checked Ras has OH tied at 48%, and I also don’t get the sense R&R are panicked about ANYTHING right now. People should ignore this thread.
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