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  • Probability of easy Bush Win-91%

    11/02/2004 3:31:02 AM PST · by KrazyEyezKillah · 32 replies · 1,386+ views
    The Horserace Blog (Jay Cost) ^ | 11/1/2004 | Jay Cost
    http://jaycost.blogspot.com/2004/11/poll-update.html Probability of Best Path for Minimal Bush EV Victory (NM, FL, WI): 91.4% Probability of Best Path for Minimal Kerry EV Victory (PA, OH, FL): 0.2% Analysis: I cleaned out all the old polls (i.e. those released before 10.27) and, lo and behold, it would seem that Bush now has a lead in PA! His lead in OH has strengthened, and his lead in FL, IA, WI remain strong. I still maintain that (A) PA is the true toss-up in this race; (B) Minnesota will be the dark horse Bush victory. Also, to correct my predicted EV score, it...