U.S. intelligence analysts, like most American observers, have often referred to the process unfolding in the Middle East as the "Arab Spring," with its implicit message of democratic rebirth and freedom. But some senior analysts are said to have argued for a more neutral term, such as "Arab Transition" — which conveys the essential truth that nobody can predict just where this upheaval is heading. The uncertain transition rumbled on last week in Syria: President Bashar Assad's hold on power appeared to weaken, with his military stretched to the breaking point in an attempt to control the protests. President Obama,...