Posted on 08/19/2011 3:53:39 PM PDT by Kaslin
U.S. intelligence analysts, like most American observers, have often referred to the process unfolding in the Middle East as the "Arab Spring," with its implicit message of democratic rebirth and freedom.
But some senior analysts are said to have argued for a more neutral term, such as "Arab Transition" — which conveys the essential truth that nobody can predict just where this upheaval is heading.
The uncertain transition rumbled on last week in Syria: President Bashar Assad's hold on power appeared to weaken, with his military stretched to the breaking point in an attempt to control the protests. President Obama, evidently sensing that the endgame is near, called on Assad to step down.
Syria illustrates the paradox of the Arab transition. The courage of the Syrian people in defying Assad's tanks is breathtaking. Yet this is a movement without clear leadership or an agenda beyond toppling Assad.
It could bend toward the hard-line Sunni fundamentalists who have led the street-fighting in Daraa and Homs, or to the sophisticated pro-democracy activists of Damascus. The truth is, nobody can predict the face of a post-Assad Syria.
The Syrian confrontation is already devolving into a regional proxy war. Iran has been rushing assistance to Assad, who is Tehran's key Arab ally and provides a lifeline to the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon.
To counter the Iranians, a newly emboldened Saudi Arabia has been pumping money to Sunni fighters in Syria. Damascus is the fault line — for Sunni-Shiite tensions, and for the confrontation between Iran and the U.S. and Israel.
(Excerpt) Read more at investors.com ...
Who's on first?
ML/NJ
Realistic observers have been using the term “Arab winter” right from the onset.
IMHO if you scratch the surface of all these demonstrations, they are about the high escalating price of food and the lack of jobs. These folks will abide a tyrant who can provide jobs and a meal at a reasonable cost.They always have. It is just that things got much worse for them in this global recession and while they are at it they might as well have a say in which tribe “governs” them.This is not about the populus being pro West nor is it about a sudden impulse towards secularism or embracing free enterprise.It is about being hungry and jobless.
Because 1 or 2 of the demonstration leaders have colored themselves temporarily as pro West to garner Western support does not mean that the demonstrators themselves are pro West.All it means is they are jobless and hungry.
If the next bum the demonstrators throw in does not give them a meal and a job, do not look for an election to thrown him out. Instead look for Arab Spring 2 and 3 and 4, etc as their idea of democracy.
Arab Spring?! Who’s the idiot that coined that phrase?
The idiots... sure can parrot the word democracy, but, to truly understand what it means, its culture and infrastructure they would have to study English Christianity and Law to learn the roots and evolution of the birth of rights, freedom, liberty and of course - the Magna Carta...
All of this is antithetical to Islam. What they are really rebelling against - their backwards, oppressive, enemy of development and advancement, Islam.
They are having a huge identity crisis seeing what the west has developed and achieved and recognizing that Islam has failed them.
For now the best they can do is suffer their frustration, and parrot the English word “democracy”
Those egypt elections are coming up in September. Very Important in shaping the Middle East.
Those egypt elections are coming up in September. Very Important in shaping the Middle East.
Those egypt elections are coming up in September. Very Important in shaping the Middle East.
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