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Expectations were great. When 2023 started, there was a general sense that the stock and bond markets had turned over a new leaf. A repeat of 2022 was out of the question. The primary assumption was that inflation would relent. After that, everything else would neatly fall in line. Specifically, interest rates would decline, and the next great stock market boom would bubble up just in time to bailout the meager retirement savings of aging baby boomers. That was the general outlook when 2023 commenced. But instead, the opposite is now happening. Inflation is persisting. Interest rates are rising. And...

During an interview aired on Tuesday’s broadcast of CNN’s “Situation Room,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen admitted that she “was wrong” about inflation and that while “unanticipated and large shocks to the economy” are a part of the reason, she also “didn’t fully understand” supply bottlenecks that have hurt the economy. Yellen reacted to clips of her downplaying the inflation threat in 2021 by stating, “I think I was wrong then about the path that inflation would take. As I mentioned, there have been unanticipated and large shocks to the economy that have boosted energy and food prices, and supply bottlenecks...

New orders for U.S. factory products tumbled much more than expected in May, posting their sharpest drop since the depth of the recession and their first decline in nine months, a government report showed Friday

Sales of new single-family homes plunged 33% in May to a record-low level after a federal subsidy for home buyers expired, according to data released Wednesday by the Commerce Department. Sales dropped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 300,000, the lowest since records began in 1963. April's sales pace was revised down to 446,000 compared with the 504,000 originally reported. March's sales were also revised lower. The results were much worse than expected, and economists had expected a 20% decline to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 405,000. See complete economic calendar and consensus forecast.

Higher-than-expected sales tax revenues in California through the first quarter of the year has been one standout piece of evidence that the economy there is back in a surprising way. Sure the state has its budget problems, but the fact that the economy seemed to be turning upward offered a hopeful sign that a solution could be found. Well, hold the champagne. According to the LA Times (via Gregor Macdonald), April sales tax receipts have plunged, unexpectedly, can celling out gains from the beginning of the year. State income fell a whopping 30% short of projections, or about $3 billion.

Businesses slashed wholesale inventories sharply in December, a much weaker showing than expected and a troubling sign that companies are still too pessimistic about the economy to begin restocking shelves on a sustained basis. Economists believe that the country won't be in a sustained recovery until businesses begin restocking their depleted shelves which will mean higher orders to factories and increased demand for manufacturing workers. The Commerce Department said Tuesday that wholesale inventories were reduced 0.8 percent in December. Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected inventories to rise by 0.5 percent during the month.

Straight from the horse's mouth, I offer the latest unemployment claims figures from the U.S. Department of Labor:

<p>WASHINGTON -- The number of newly laid-off workers filing initial claims for jobless benefits rose unexpectedly last week, evidence that layoffs are continuing and jobs remain scarce.</p> <p>The rise is the fourth in the past five weeks. Most economists hoped that claims would resume a downward trend that was evident in the fall and early winter.</p>

Sales of newly built U.S. single-family homes fell unexpectedly in December, data showed on Wednesday, the latest indication that the government-led housing recovery might be losing some steam.

The $787 billion federal stimulus package that Congress passed last year has gotten even bigger -- now expected to cost $862 billion, over the next 10 years, according to the Congressional Budget Office. The nonpartisan CBO report, published Tuesday, attributes the $75 billion increase to added unemployment-related costs. More Americans are receiving unemployments benefits for lost jobs that the stimulus bill was meant to save, the report says. About $21 billion of the added costs stem from higher unemployment compensation payments, while the remainder of the increase comes from food assistance payments and interest payments from states on taxable government...

WASHINGTON -- The number of newly laid-off workers requesting unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week as jobs remain scarce amid a sluggish economic recovery. The Labor Department said Thursday new claims for unemployment insurance rose by 11,000 to a seasonally adjusted 444,000. Wall Street economists polled by Thomson Reuters expected an increase of only 3,000.

Americans borrowed less for a 10th consecutive month in November with total credit and borrowing on credit cards falling by the largest amounts on records going back nearly seven decades. The dramatic declines raised new worries about whether consumers will cut back further on spending, making it harder for the economy to mount a sustained rebound. The Federal Reserve said Friday that total borrowing dropped by $17.5 billion in November, a much bigger decline than the $5 billion decrease economists had expected. Americans are borrowing less for a number of reasons. They remain fearful about their job prospects and they...