Türkiye's secular opposition leader may have succeeded in forcing President Recep Tayyip Erdogan into his first-ever runoff, but his chances of winning on May 28 are remote. Kemal Kilicdaroglu was predicted to perform well in Sunday's (May 14) first round but ended up with just under 45 per cent while Erdogan fell fractionally short of the 50-per cent threshold required for an outright victory. His six-party alliance now needs to accomplish seemingly impossible electoral gymnastics to unseat Erdogan, who needs just a sliver of extra support to extend his two decades in power to 2028.