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The U.S. economy shrank in the first quarter despite underlying strength in consumer and business spending. Gross domestic product contracted at an annualized rate of 0.3 percent, the Department of Commerce said on Wednesday. The decline in U.S. gross domestic product marks a sharp reversal from the 2.4 percent growth rate recorded at the end of last year. This was the lowest rate of growth since 2022, when the economy avoided an official recession but contracted for two consecutive quarters. Final sales to private domestic purchasers, a closely watched measure of business and consumer health, expanded at a healthy pace...

The U.S. economy contracted in the first three months of 2025, as businesses rushed to stock up on imports ahead of tariffs and consumers eased their pace of spending. The Commerce Department said U.S. gross domestic product—the value of all goods and services produced across the economy—fell at a seasonally and inflation adjusted 0.3% annual rate in the first quarter. That was the steepest decline since the first quarter of 2022. The reading fell short of the 0.4% growth that economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expected. The decline in GDP in the first quarter reflected front-running ahead of...

Socrates has honed in on 2025 becoming a year of great stagflation in the United States. The Federal Reserve has finally admitted that the data is undeniable—the United States will experience stagflation. The economy is declining but prices are rising. Most understand inflation, especially in the post-COVID world, but few understand stagflation. Stagflation is when you have high inflation and stagnant economic growth at the same time. Normally, inflation is supposed to go hand in hand with rising demand and growth. But during stagflation, prices go up even though the economy is barely moving. “Powell said the president’s tariffs announced...

BlogEventsShopKnowledge Center Contact Us Store Account Blog Economics The Recession into 2028 Trump Does Not Understand The Recession into 2028 Trump Does Not Understand Posted Nov 17, 2024 By Martin Armstrong | SPREAD THE LOVE WEC 2016 Orlando QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, thank you for the WEC. Many people feel this was your best. Your solution to save our country was spectacular, and you deserved the standing ovation. My question is that you said that Trump and RFK would not listen to you despite everything you have done. You did not explain why. May I ask why? FP ANSWER: As I...

Nine of the 12 Federal Reserve districts reported a decline in economic activity in August, up five districts from the July Beige Book report. Our system has warned that we are entering a period of stagflation, where inflation remains high but GDP declines. Now, the Fed is reporting that two-thirds of the US economy is experiencing “flat or declining activity.” The US economy advanced 3% during the last quarter, leading many to believe that the economy is recovering since Q2 posted a measly 1.4% advancement. Consumer spending, amounting to 70% of GDP, rose 2.9% last quarter as well, but people...

Will the U.S. economy be able to beat inflation without going into a recession? That may be the question investors are asking themselves as more economic data is pointing to a softening economy. Recession fears started to percolate in early August, when July jobs data showed the unemployment rate growing to 4.3%. The increase in unemployment triggered the recession-indicating Sahm rule and a deep stock-market selloff over the next two trading days. “The unemployment rate is increasingly more of a watch point for investors,” Matt Stucky, chief portfolio manager of equities at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, told MarketWatch. Although the...

Fed Chair Powell yesterday said he doesn’t see the “stag” in stagflation. Really? Well, in Q1 in the US… it failed to show up as non-farm productivity – or nonfarm employee output per hour – rose at a measly 0.3% annualized rate after an upwardly revised 3.5% gain in the prior period (well below expectations)… Source: Bloomberg On the flip-side of that – and echoing the market-worrying ECI data earlier this week – Unit Labor Costs soared 4.7% in Q1 (well above the 4.0% expected and the 0.4% rise in Q4)… Source: Bloomberg So wage inflation is confirmed – rising...

No one can accurately predict where the stock market will go, but it is a fact that the Biden administration’s spending imperils every American. After a strong run in 2023 and early 2024, stock markets have been selling off lately. I cannot predict whether this market sell-off will continue, but I can state what has happened so far and speculate as to why it has happened and whether it will continue. In my opinion, anyone who says he can do more than speculate is deceived or lying. After closing at an all-time high of 5,254 on March 28, the S&P...

The U.S. economy is showing signs of stagflation as growth slumps down and prices continue to surge for average Americans, experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation. U.S. annual economic growth measured just 1.6% in the first quarter of 2024, following a report of persistently high inflation in March of 3.5% year-over-year. The combination of both low growth and high inflation, in conjunction with continuously high amounts of government spending and debt, has led to signs of stagflation in the U.S. economy, which wreaked havoc on U.S. consumers throughout the 1970’s, according to experts who spoke to the DCNF. “It’s...

Slower growth and rising inflation has brought back distant cries that stagflation is coming. This would force interest rates to stay higher for longer, putting pressure on US businesses and consumers. One investor says anyone looking to hedge this risk should focus on fixed income. A pair of economic reports has brought back a word no central banker ever wants to hear: stagflation. The difficult scenario occurs when inflation rises and growth stalls, a dangerous combination just experienced by the US economy. Worries emerged when Thursday's first-quarter GDP reading slumped against expectations, growing at an annualized 1.6% rate. That's a...

ast week, U.S. stocks surged to a fresh all-time high, but this upward momentum might be short-lived due to growing concerns of the economy entering a stagflation scenario reminiscent of the 1970s, according to analysts at JPMorgan Chase. Marko Kolanovic, the bank’s chief market strategist, cautioned in a note to clients about the potential shift away from a “Goldilocks” scenario, where the economy experiences moderate growth without significant fluctuations, towards a period of stagflation resembling that of the 1970s. He emphasized the risk of the market narrative transitioning from a favorable Goldilocks scenario to one marked by stagflation, which could...

Government power is causing inflation and middle class economic repression. For example, US credit card debt is at an all-time high as consumers attempt to cope with inflation under Biden. While inflation RATE is finally cooling off, the LEVEL of inflation remains high. Purchasing power for consumers is down 15% under Vacation Joe. Following yesterday’s hotter-than-expected CPI, this morning’s Producer Price Index was expected to accelerate (headline not core). However, it did not – headline PPI actually decline 0.1% MoM (+0.1% MoM exp). That is the 3rd straight month of ‘deflation’ but inched PPI YoY up to +1.0% I am...

Mass layoffs are in store for 2024, and it might end up affecting nearly half of companies, according to a new poll. That's the latest information from a Resume Builder survey, based on responses from more than 900 companies this month. Resume Builder is a professional platform that allows users to create resumes in just a few steps. In the survey, nearly four in 10 companies said they are likely to have layoffs in 2024, prompting increased fears of a recession around the corner. More than half of companies also said they plan to implement a hiring freeze in 2024....

I wonder if Biden’s proposed railroad from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean will generate massive industrial production growth? Is this more Bidenomics?? Industrial production unexpectedly dips in May. It peaked eight months ago. On a year-over-year basis, May’s Industrial Production declined to a lame 0.23%. As The Fed hikes rates and slows M2 Money growth. Today the Fed released its Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report for May 2023. Industrial production edged down 0.2 percent in May following two consecutive months of increases. The Bloomberg Econoday consensus was a small increase. In May, the index for manufacturing ticked up...

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE: GS) sees a mini stagflation scenario ahead, ailed by sluggish growth and higher inflation. The banking behemoth predicts a stricter environment for capital markets and financing as the risk appetite for its clients is lower, Reuters reported, citing a statement from the bank's president John Waldron.

Expectations were great. When 2023 started, there was a general sense that the stock and bond markets had turned over a new leaf. A repeat of 2022 was out of the question. The primary assumption was that inflation would relent. After that, everything else would neatly fall in line. Specifically, interest rates would decline, and the next great stock market boom would bubble up just in time to bailout the meager retirement savings of aging baby boomers. That was the general outlook when 2023 commenced. But instead, the opposite is now happening. Inflation is persisting. Interest rates are rising. And...

A piece published in a major liberal publication funded by leftist billionaire George Soros is projecting global economic disaster. The Soros-funded Project Syndicate released a Dec. 2 column by New York University Professor Emeritus of Economics Nouriel Roubini headlined: “The Unavoidable Crash.” Roubini wrote that years of frivolous fiscal, monetary and credit policies compounded by major negative supply shocks have significantly damaged the world economy, including the U.S.: “Stagflationary pressures are now putting the squeeze on a massive mountain of public- and private-sector debt.” Roubini didn’t mince words. “The mother of all economic crises looms, and there will be little...

Small businesses are struggling to pay rent due to higher rent inflation and fewer customers. The struggles vary by type of business. ... Record Surge in Small Business Delinquencies Alignable reports Record Surge In Rent Delinquency: Up 7% In October, Totaling 37% For U.S. SMBs Due to ongoing economic challenges, small business owners' ability to pay their full rent on time in October took a major hit based on a new Alignable poll. In fact, the U.S. rent delinquency rate among small businesses jumped 7% in just one month, marking the largest, most rapid increase in 2022. In September, rent...

Making bank doesn’t mean you have loot saved in the bank. Roughly 45% of those making more than $100,000 say they live paycheck to paycheck; 47% of those making between $150,000 and $200,000-a-year; and 28% of those making over $200,000, a new report from PYMNTS.com found. What’s more, a 2022 survey from LendingClub revealed that 30% of those earning $250,000 or more live paycheck to paycheck. And that’s too bad, as many savings accounts are now paying more than they have in a decade — see the highest rates you may get on a savings account now here. “The combination...

The Federal Reserve’s fight to squash inflation will cause the US economy to start losing tens of thousands of jobs a month beginning early next year, Bank of America warns. Although the jobs market remained surprisingly strong in September, the Fed is working hard to change that by aggressively raising interest rates to ease demand for everything from cars and homes to appliances. The pace of job growth is expected to be roughly cut in half during the fourth quarter of this year, Bank of America told clients in a report Friday.