Posted on 11/17/2024 1:53:22 PM PST by delta7
BlogEventsShopKnowledge Center Contact Us Store Account Blog Economics The Recession into 2028 Trump Does Not Understand The Recession into 2028 Trump Does Not Understand Posted Nov 17, 2024 By Martin Armstrong |
SPREAD THE LOVE WEC 2016 Orlando
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, thank you for the WEC. Many people feel this was your best. Your solution to save our country was spectacular, and you deserved the standing ovation. My question is that you said that Trump and RFK would not listen to you despite everything you have done. You did not explain why. May I ask why?
FP
ANSWER: As I said, Trump’s plan to eliminate and replace the income tax with tariffs will fail. I understand those who proposed the idea, citing that the nation was funded by tariffs before the income tax, and a return to that funding system may look good in bullet points, but the economy is far more complex, and the socialistic goals will not be able to simply be cut without resistance. I had also warned Maggie Thatcher about imposing a poll tax. She thought the people would take the supervisory role as a check on the government if they had skin in the game. But I knew from history it would not unfold as she had hoped.
TAX CYC
The entire issue is NOT that companies moved offshore for cheaper labor. That is the Marxist excuse. They moved because of the taxation. When I restructured major multinational companies around the world, we had to consider (1) country risk, (2) stability in taxation, and (3) taxation on the workforce.
I testified before the House Ways & Means Committee. Trump can call up my testimony, but those around him will not allow that to take place. They have their solution in play and will never allow competition, no matter how wrong they are. Welcome to politics. I was then asked why no American company had gotten a contract in China to build the Yellow River Dam. I explained that Americans are taxed on worldwide income, but Germany is not. Thus, an American corporation is already 30-35% more expensive than a German company bidding on the same project.
Taxes Stupid
Trump is married to the idea that tariffs will bring back American jobs—companies left BECAUSE of the taxes. Eliminate the Income Tax, end the borrowing, and do what I said with Social Security, and the companies will return, bringing foreign companies with them. You will create the most significant economic boom in history while the rest of the world completes the economic decline outlined by the Economic Confidence Model into 2028.
ECM Wave 2020 2028 Pi
Trump is sold on the Tariff idea. He will NOT listen to me. So, unfortunately, the expected economic boom people will have with Trump will be tempered and not a reality. Unless we look at the entire world collectively, we can never fight the global trend. Tariffs will increase inflation and contribute to the economic decline the world will experience into 2028.
The Recession into 2028 NOBODY Understands
Oh please, enough of this stupid crap that tariffs are bad. We yave bene here before and tariffs work.
Printing to much money, being in massive debt and increasing fuel costs intentionally is way more an impact on inflation.
Tariffs are a tool for fair trade and diplomacy, not economic management,, it is about regulating fair trade and Trump knows this well
There is the fact that Trump has successfully managed large businesses for decades. Something Armstrong has not done. I would guess he has a pretty good understanding of economics.
Tariffs are great for balancing trade and protecting essential sectors of the economy.
But they should never be considered a sole revenue source. That’s sheer ignorance.
Tariffs could not even fund Defense, much less all the other things government does.
He’s wrong. Tariffs are a bargaining chip. Why does the US have to follow the globalist trend (agenda)? The US can make the trend. We have every resource at our disposal to do so.
Here’s a good reason Trump doesn’t listen to this clown...
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/china/china-v-us-trade-war/
“China will become the largest economy in the world and take the crown from the United States because America lacks the political stability to foster long-term economic growth like China.”
China’s economy is imploding and Trump can crush it altogether with tariffs.
OK (but I'm not into him enough to be "anti")
There you go.
The Great Finance Economist Armstrong. No. Tariffs will not increase inflation. Only increasing the money supply increases inflation. That and only that IS inflation. Changes in prices and price levels are results of inflation. Controlling inflation by treating tariffs, or instituting price controls or other financial nostrums only treat the symptoms and only change those symptoms. Reducing inflation requires reducing money creation/government borrowing. Reducing the trillion dollars of taxes a year that finances the debt requires cutting spending below the level of the previous year every year.
Apparently he does not understand Trump.
With the current socialist government yes tariffs will not work. Restoring our government to a constitutional one, with the enumerated powers only, tariffs will more than pay for it.
But it is going to raise the prices on BMWs and Mercedes’.
Anyone who wants to buy a foreign product can still do so, and pay for the privilege of having it.
-PJ
Exactly. So many people think a tariff means all access to a certain product is cut off. No, just the ones from countries who have unfair trading practices with us.
Those products made here or other countries that do not hinder American products will be just fine, and we might even see industry here make up the difference. Supply and demand still work.
No anti-Armostrong comments, but he is wrong.
Never heard of this guy. Sounds like a politician.
“The entire issue is NOT that companies moved offshore for cheaper labor. That is the Marxist excuse. They moved because of the taxation.”
Anyone who lists taxation alone without citing regulation (which is much harder to quantify) is a simpleton.
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The macro economy is far more complex, and political, than most people care to realize. There’s no “simple fix,” and all of the options still have a little hair on them.
Neither Armstrong, Trump, or Musk (especially now when he’s arguing publicly with Trump over who should be Treasury Secretary) will fix “the economy” with simple and quick nostrums or cheer leading.
I've studied regulatory racketeering since the late '90s and am probably somewhat responsible for its increase in sophistication using layers of foundations for money laundering purposes. Yeah, it's a tangled mess. The creeps at the Fed are masters of it, using banks to the same ends.
“Waiting for the anti-Armstrong comments.”
Here you go:
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — A former currency trader who prosecutors say ran a $3 billion ponzi scheme pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit securities fraud and commodities fraud, the U.S. Attorney’s Office said late Thursday. Prosecutors said Martin Armstrong, former head of Princeton Economics, defrauded 139 investors of about $700 million between 1992 and 1999. Armstrong, 56, faces up to five years in prison and a fine of $250,000. He has been in jail since 2000 stemming from related charges brought by the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/princeton-economics-trader-pleads-guilty-to-securities-fraud
I think we’re headed for some economic trouble but most don’t understand that economic good or harm is the result of events of at least 6 months to a year or more earlier.
Bloated mostly unconstitutional gov’t spending and flooding the money supply with printed dollars (inflation) under Biden will be the main culprit.
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