Free Republic

Soft Patch Delusion Is Dashed: Roubini Published: Monday, 8 Aug 2011 | 5:11 AM ET By: Patrick Allen CNBC EMEA Head of News Influential economist Nouriel Roubini has warned hopes that the recent slowdown was temporary have been dashed and predicted the US and other advanced economies will have a second “severe recession ”. Writing in Monday’s Financial Times, the founder of Roubini Global Economics said: “America’s recent data have been lousy: there has been little job creation, weak growth and flat consumption and manufacturing production. Housing remains depressed. Consumer, business and investor confidence has been falling, and will now...

We expect stronger 3.5% U.S. growth in the second half and a market shift from bonds to stocks as auto production picks up, growth in emerging markets remains strong and near-term concerns get resolved -- about QE2 ending, the debt limit increase, a China hard landing and a quick Greek default. (We think they’ll all be resolved favorably, but even unfavorable outcomes are better than the current uncertainty.)    This year’s soft patch has been exaggerated by the emphasis on the auto sector in the data including ISM, other diffusion indexes, auto sales and industrial production. Jobless claims jumped due to the unique automatic...

NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. companies hired far fewer workers than expected in May and output in the manufacturing sector slowed to its lowest level since 2009, adding to concerns that the U.S. recovery is running out of steam. Economists slashed their forecasts for Friday's payrolls report, considered the best barometer of the world's biggest economy, after private-sector job growth tumbled to just 38,000, its lowest level in eight months. Wednesday's reports were the latest signals that economic growth remained sluggish in the second quarter after hitting a weak spot in the first months of the year. "It fits very...

A double-dip in home prices, pessimistic consumers and a slowdown in regional manufacturing raised concerns on Tuesday that the economy's soft patch could become protracted. "The question is, 'Is the softer data we're seeing transitory, or is it likely to persist throughout the remainder of 2011?' Right now, that's an open question that investors are trying to figure out," said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist at RDM Financial in Westport, Connecticut.The U.S. economy grew at a tepid 1.8 percent annual rate in the first three months of the year, and these fresh signs suggest the recovery is still struggling to...

The economy has struck a soft patch that is likely temporary, and the second half of the year should be better, some economists say. Supply chain disruptions form the Japanese earthquake and tsunami have had a direct impact on manufacturing and the auto industry in particular. Additionally, the spike in oil and gasoline prices has hit consumer and business spending.