Free Republic

So much for that second-half rebound. Truth be told, that was always more of a wish than a serious forecast, happy talk from the Fed and Wall Street desperate to get things back to normal. It ain't gonna happen. Not this summer. Not this fall. Not even next winter. This thing's going down, fast and hard. Corporate bankruptcies, bond defaults, bank failures, hedge fund meltdowns and 6 percent unemployment. We're caught in one of those vicious, downward spirals that, once it gets going, is very hard to pull out of. Only this will be a different kind of recession --...

The euro, worth 83 cents in the early George W. Bush years, is at $1.45. The British pound is back up over $2, the highest level since the Carter era. The Canadian dollar, which used to be worth 65 cents, is worth more than the U.S. dollar for the first time in half a century. Oil is over $90 a barrel. Gold, down to $260 an ounce not so long ago, has hit $800. Have gold, silver, oil, the euro, the pound and the Canadian dollar all suddenly soared in value in just a few years? Nope. The dollar has...

<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - Countrywide Financial Corp Chief Executive Angelo Mozilo said on Thursday the U.S. housing downturn is likely to lead the country into recession, but that the largest U.S. mortgage lender will survive.</p> <p>In an interview, Mozilo also said that to promote liquidity, the U.S. Federal Reserve should cut the rate it charges banks to borrow.</p>

NEW YORK - Bad credit has supplanted terrorism as the gravest immediate risk threatening the economy, a key national research group reported Monday. Borrowers' withering ability to pay their bills and the subsequent fallout in the credit markets this summer topped the list of short-term risks on peoples' minds, according to a survey of 258 members conducted by the National Association of Business Economics. NABE, a Washington-based association, said 32 percent of its surveyed members cited loan defaults and excessive debt as their biggest near-term concern. Only 20 percent of members cited defense and terrorism as their biggest immediate worry,...

Subprime-battered mortgage lenders are shutting down, fewer homes are being built, and even some of the big U.S. retailers are planning conservatively for Christmas holiday sales. It will take a few months to show up in the economic data that Wall Street and the Federal Reserve watch, but the slowing U.S. economy is hitting the job market, and economists say it is only a matter of time before unemployment ticks up. "Growth is skimming along at around 2 percent, and that is not strong enough to keep the unemployment rate from rising," said Brian Bethune, U.S. economist with Global Insight...

LONDON (CNNMoney.com) -- Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said the current turmoil in financial markets will slow economic growth but should not spark a recession, according to a report published Thursday. Paulson told the Wall Street Journal that the turmoil "will extract a penalty on the growth rate" of the U.S. economy, but that "the economy and the markets are strong enough to absorb the losses" without triggering a recession. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson expects the current market turmoil will slow U.S. economic growth, but he doesn't see a recession occurring. Paulson, the former CEO of Goldman Sachs (Charts, Fortune 500),...

Dec. 11, 2006 Greenspan sees a sinking dollar Bloomberg News Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the dollar will probably keep falling because it's unlikely that international fund managers will continue to increase their allocations to the U.S. currency. Russia and other oil-producing currencies are shifting their assets out of dollars toward the euro and yen, a Bank for International Settlements quarterly report showed Monday. Greenspan said the dollar, heading for its fourth annual decline in the past five years, will probably keep falling until the U.S. current-account deficit diminishes. "It's imprudent to hold everything in one currency," Greenspan...

Plunging dollar will set world markets reeling Heather Stewart, economics correspondent Sunday December 3, 2006 The Observer The slowdown in the US economy, which has sent the dollar into freefall over the past fortnight, will have devastating knock-on effects in markets around the world, analysts warn. As the US slows, and consumers in the world's biggest economy feel the buying power of the dollar in their pocket declining, global growth will be hit hard, economists say. The greenback took yet another turn for the worse on Friday, after a survey of the US manufacturing sector showed output declining for the...

AP Home Sales Plummet in 38 States in 3Q Monday November 20 By Lauren Villagran, AP Business Writer Third-Quarter Home Sales Plummet in 38 States During the Summer; Home Prices Also Tumble NEW YORK (AP) -- The feeble U.S. housing market showed more frailty when third-quarter home sales plummeted in 38 states, hitting Nevada, Arizona, Florida and California particularly hard, government data showed on Monday. The once-booming real estate market's persistent weakness over the past year has reined in expectations for economic growth but hasn't been severe enough to offset a rising stock market, lower gas prices and improved consumer...

One of the many benefits of the now-cooling housing boom — both to consumers and the U.S. economy — was the huge pile of cash extracted in the form of home equity loans and “cash-out” mortgage refinancings. But with home prices flattening, and that multibillion-dollar piggy bank drying up, can consumers continue the shopping spree that accounts for more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy? There was fresh evidence of the housing slump this week, as separate government reports showed prices of both new and existing homes fell year-over year in August. For existing homes, it was the first year-over-year...

Gerard Herard was able to finally purchase a home in 2003 through a $225,070 mortgage from Security Atlantic Mortgage. His payments on the quaint Totowa Avenue house in Paterson were a reasonable $1,300 a month. But Herard's payments have since increased to $2,200 a month and the mortgage has grown, not shrunk, to roughly $300,000. Herard is not entirely sure why his situation changed so dramatically and is struggling to deal with the increase. "I'm trying to climb a steep ladder," said Herard, 53. In recent years, lenders have lured scores of homeowners to untraditional mortgages with changing terms. Many...

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investment bank HSBC has revised downward its forecast for 2007 economic growth and cautioned that the risk of an outright recession is growing as a retreat in housing threatens household balance sheets. ADVERTISEMENT The company argues that while corporate profits have remained sky-high, the incomes of most Americans have effectively fallen over the last 18 months. That, say economists Stephen King and Ian Morris, could be a recipe for hard times in an economy that relies on consumers for over two-thirds of its strength. "Never before have households been so hard hit at a time companies...

With millions of adjustable-rate mortgages about to reset this fall, experts expect a wave of foreclosures by Americans in every income bracket. Here's why they could soar in late 2006 and beyond: Those easy-mortgage chickens are coming home to roost. This fall the adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) that millions of Americans took out during the recent housing boom will be reset, and many homeowners will see their monthly mortgage payments shoot up by as much as 20%. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, of all mortgages financed in 2005, 36% were ARMs -- the highest ever. This is a matter of...

"In 376 a large band of Gothic refugees arrived at the Empire's Danube frontier, asking for asylum. In a complete break with established Roman policy, they were allowed in, unsubdued. They revolted, and within two years had defeated and killed the emperor Valens -- the one who had received them -- along with two-thirds of his army, at the battle of Hadrianople." So writes Oxford's Peter Heather in "Fall of the Roman Empire: A New History of Rome and the Barbarians," who is convinced that Valens' welcoming of the Goths was the decision that sealed the fate of the empire....

Better cancel those holidays. We now have a date for Armageddon, and it's a week on Tuesday - August 22. This information comes from no lesser source than the Wall Street Journal, where Bernard Lewis, President Bush's favourite historian, provides the details. "In Islam, as in Judaism and Christianity," the professor writes, "there are certain beliefs concerning the cosmic struggle at the end of time - Gog and Magog, anti-Christ, Armageddon, and for Shiite Muslims, the long-awaited return of the Hidden Imam, ending in the final victory of the forces of good over evil, however these may be defined. "Mr...

For education and discussion only. Not for commercial use. I am surprised at the recent outrage regarding the sale of American port operations to a United Arab Emirates' company, President Bush's proposal allowing foreign ownership of domestic airlines, etc. After all, we have enjoyed more than 25 years of continuous and growing trade deficits. And why not, if foreigners are willing to ship us more goods than we ship them, good for us as it enables us to consume more than we as a nation produce. Unfortunately, there is just one problem, the only reason foreigners would continue shipping us...

For education and discussion only. Not for commercial use. The issue: America's free-trade myth Our view: Middle-class America has paid a high price for these policies, but where's the payoff? When President Bush visited India last week to strike a deal expanding that country's nuclear capability, he couldn't avoid questions about the estimated 162,000 U.S. workers who lost their jobs to overseas outsourcing in 2004 alone, with the bulk of those jobs going to India and China. But you could bet your unemployment check that he wasn't backing down on his policy of allowing U.S. companies to profit off of...

-snip- Dissenters say our prosperity is hollow. While the economy appears healthy, a disease is eating away inside, a disease that Dr. Greenspan has been treating with oxycontin. The chairman, they say, was a friend to presidents and kept them happy and himself in power by the greatest expansion of money and credit in history. And just as the easy-money Fed policies of the Hoover-Coolidge era led to the crash of ’29, a day of reckoning is ahead. -snip-

For education and discussion only. Not for commercial use. Downward trends in U.S. manufacturing are threatening the nation's long-term economic growth and living standards, according to a new report from two industrial trade groups. Leadership and innovation also are at risk as fewer young people choose manufacturing for a career, says the report from the National Association of Manufacturers and the Council of Manufacturing Associations, based in Washington, D.C. "Our nation cannot afford to lose its manufacturing innovation edge and the wealth it generates," said Jerry Jasinowski, president of the Manufacturing Institute, the research arm of the NAM. Industrial output...