Free Republic

The coronavirus outbreak has made a recession in Europe’s largest economy inevitable in the first half of this year, Germany’s council of economic advisers said on Monday, predicting that output could shrink by up to 5.4% this year. The panel, which advises the government on economic policy, said its baseline scenario — in which the economic situation would normalize over the summer — was for the economy to contract by 2.8% this year before potentially growing by 3.7% next year. But a more marked “V-shaped” recession curve with widespread halts to production or longer-lasting public health measures, could lead to...

It is vitally important, literally life and death, that the proper costs and benefits are weighed with the decision on how much and how long to shut down economic activity through the pandemic. As the coronavirus pandemic continues across the world, leaders and policymakers have scrambled to respond to the growing health crisis. In the United States, multiple state governors have issued statements urging their citizens to follow social distancing guidelines.Other governors have taken more extreme measures, issuing orders to effectively lock down entire state economies. The current goal of these responses has been to slow the spread of the...

The AP’s statement has no basis in reality. There is currently no body of research that demonstrates people are less likely to take their lives in time of economic hardship. The pace of information during the COVID-19 crisis has been extraordinary. Last week President Trump said thousands could die by suicide as a result of the economic crisis created by the coronavirus.The Associated Press (AP) immediately released a “fact check” on the president’s prediction, saying it was false. Over the weekend, The Federalist’s Tristan Justice reported more people died from suicides in east Tennessee than from the coronavirus. In the...

As the coronavirus continues to spread, there is no question the U.S. economy is taking a major hit. Economists at Goldman Sachs warn GDP will collapse at a 24% rate, a far cry from the “4, 5, and even 6%” growth scenario presented by President Trump just over two years ago. “We are in a global recession,” Allianz’s Mohamed El-Erian said on Yahoo Finance’s On The Move. “We're in a global recession because of what economic sudden stops do.” Economic contractions often happen gradually, not suddenly, giving policymakers and business leaders some time to adjust so that growth may resume....

Looks like the liberal blowhard HBO comedian Bill Maher may be getting his wish. Maher had been begging for a market crash and recession to occur in hopes it would oust President Donald Trump from the White House. In 2018, he sniped, “I feel like the bottom has to fall out at some point, and by the way, I’m hoping for it because I think one way you get rid of Trump is to crash the economy.” Maher continued: “So please, bring on the recession. Sorry if that hurts people, but it’s either root for a recession or you lose...

Strategists at Goldman Sachs just reminded investors why they are dumping stocks hand over fist right now. The coronavirus may wipe out corporate growth in 2020, perhaps completely. Goldman Sachs said Thursday in a note U.S. companies will generate no earnings growth in 2020. Underlying the call is Goldman’s view that the coronavirus is expected to spread around the globe and severely harm economic activity. For 2020, Goldman slashed its S&P 500 earnings estimate by $9 and expects no earnings growth. Looking out into 2021, Goldman now sees $8 less in S&P 500 earnings and a modest 6% growth rate....

The introduction of a nationwide minimum wage in Germany has spurred a growth in worker productivity, according to a study published Tuesday. The government in Berlin first established a minimum wage in 2015, requiring firms to pay their employees €8.50 ($9.20) per hour. At the time, around 15% of the German workforce was earning less than that amount. Research by University College London (UCL) and the German Institute for Labor Market Research (AIB) found that the change did not result in higher joblessness among low-wage workers — one of the fears before the policy was rolled out. […] Instead, their...

A new study from the MIT Sloan School of Management and State Street Associate says there's a 70% chance that a recession will occur in the next six months.The researches used a scientific approach initially developed to measure human skulls to determine how the relationship of four factors compares to prior recessions.The index currently stands at 76%. Looking at data back to 1916, the researchers found that once the index topped 70%, the likelihood of a recession rose to 70%.  There's a 70% chance that a recession will hit in the next six months, according to new research from...

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A closely watched bond market phenomenon has again flashed yellow, but investors are loathe to give it much weight. Yields on the 10-year Treasury note briefly fell below those of the 3-month bill early Tuesday for the first time since October, on concerns over the economic impact of the coronavirus. An inverted yield curve has historically been an indicator of looming recession as it tends to reflect worries over future growth among bond investors. However, worries about the coronavirus have so far done little to shake the upbeat growth views many investors and analysts had going...

Yesterday, in my post about the latest jobs report, I said that “our massive looming government debt bubble” will “precipitate the biggest economic disaster of them all.” A commenter here at RedState asked what I meant by a “government debt bubble.” I have talked about this before, but it is an important enough topic that it is worth revisiting. In short, we’re in a bus speeding towards a cliff. We’re probably already past the point of no return. The bus is going over the side. It’s not a matter of if, but a matter of when. About the only thing...

Despite being “better educated” than Boomers… Thirty-nine percent of millennials have a bachelor’s degree or higher, compared to about a quarter of baby boomers when they were the same age. Millennials find themselves falling behind in the Game of Life. That seems, well, unfair. But nevertheless, there it is. Millennials are earning 20% less than baby boomers at the same age — despite being better educated, a new study has found.Research published in a report by the nonprofit New America found that the Great Recession, which began in 2007, was largely to blame in the generational wealth divide.Lack of...

Nobel-prize winning economist Robert Shiller believes a recession may be years away due to a bullish Trump effect in the market. According to the Yale University professor, President Donald Trump is creating an environment that’s conducive to strong consumer spending, and it’s a major force that should hold off a recession. Before the markets can take-off, Shiller stresses President Trump needs to get past the impeachment inquiry. He sees this as the biggest threat to his optimistic forecast. Yet, he’s sticking with the idea that the economy and markets should have a lot of runway left for gains if President...

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned on Tuesday that a recession is on the horizon thanks to the continuing trade tensions with China. “Of course there’s a recession ahead,” Dimon said during a morning call with reporters after the bank announced its third-quarter earnings. “It does look like geopolitics, particularly around China and trade, are reducing business confidence and business capital expenditure,” Dimon added. On Tuesday afternoon, however, JPMorgan Chase spokesman Joe Evangelisti sought to downplay Dimon’s comments, noting that his boss didn’t mention the timing of his prediction.

Remember all the (hopeful) recession talk recently by many in the mainstream media who found it hard to hide their desire for bad economic times to harm President Donald Trump's 2020 re-election? Some, such as Bill Maher didn't even try to hide their hope for a recession. In fact Maher was publicly hoping for such a recession to stop Trump.  Well, sad news for them but very happy news for most others. Bloomberg on September 20 reported that such dire economic hype is not born out by the economic data in "Hold That Recession: U.S. Indicators Are Trouncing Forecasts" by Jeff Kearns and Steve Matthews.

U.S. President Donald Trump is likely to emerge victorious in the 2020 presidential election, according to a CNBC survey of 62 chief financial officers. The CNBC Global CFO Council consists of companies that combine for a valuation north of $5 trillion and more than two-thirds of those surveyed believe Trump will defeat the yet to be named Democratic nominee. Only one-quarter of respondents say ex-Vice President Joe Biden could beat Trump if he is nominated. Economic Health Respondents classified the health of the U.S. economy as "improving" in the second quarter and the latest survey showed an upgrade to "stable."...

Six in 10 Americans say a recession is likely in the next year and as many are concerned about higher prices because of the trade war with China, helping to knock 6 points off President Donald Trump’s job approval rating in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll. Trump fell from a career-high 44% approval in July to 38% now, a point off his career average, with 56% disapproving. His average rating since taking office remains the lowest on record for any modern president at a comparable point in his term, and he is the first never to have achieved majority...

One of the hardest things to understand about the current economy is that we are in a good, solid place — but not a perfect one. Last week’s jobs report was a touch light on the number of jobs added, but average hourly earnings were up nicely — and, besides, August tends to be a bit of a squirrely month anyway. This economy can best be summed up by a classic childhood fairy tale: “Goldilocks and the Three Bears.” The growth is exactly the way Goldilocks prefers her porridge: not too hot, not too cold, but “just right.” While the...

Thursday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” network host Jim Cramer argued the U.S. economy gave it leverage over China in the trade dispute between the two nations. Cramer told host Joe Kernan that the only ones talking about a recession as a result of the trade war with the Chinese were them in the media. “I think President Trump is set in his ways because he doesn’t see any weakening,” Cramer said. “I mean, look at the jobless report today. I mean, someone earlier said manufacturing was in recession. Well, manufacturing has been in recession in this country for ages. What...

Over the last few weeks, we've been exploring the competing narratives about the US economy -- with the White House insisting that all is well, as many in the media hype up the possibility of a coming recession.  My general conclusion at this point has been that while there are some soft spots and genuine warning signs, the economy's fundamentals remain quite strong.  Unemployment has been quite low, the job market has been quite robust, and wage growth has broken free from years of frustrating stagnation.  We also recently received positive news on other indicators, including productivity, retail sales, and...

A growing share of U.S. business economists think a recession is unlikely before 2021. In a report on Monday, 38% of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics said they believe a slowing economy will tip into recession in 2020. That's down from 42% in a survey taken in February. Only 2% of those polled expect a recession to begin this year, while roughly a third of respondents foresee one hitting in 2021. One reason fewer economists expect a recession next year—the Federal Reserve's move last month to dial back interest rates for the first time since 2008....