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U.S. President Donald Trump is likely to emerge victorious in the 2020 presidential election, according to a CNBC survey of 62 chief financial officers. The CNBC Global CFO Council consists of companies that combine for a valuation north of $5 trillion and more than two-thirds of those surveyed believe Trump will defeat the yet to be named Democratic nominee. Only one-quarter of respondents say ex-Vice President Joe Biden could beat Trump if he is nominated. Economic Health Respondents classified the health of the U.S. economy as "improving" in the second quarter and the latest survey showed an upgrade to "stable."...

Six in 10 Americans say a recession is likely in the next year and as many are concerned about higher prices because of the trade war with China, helping to knock 6 points off President Donald Trump’s job approval rating in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll. Trump fell from a career-high 44% approval in July to 38% now, a point off his career average, with 56% disapproving. His average rating since taking office remains the lowest on record for any modern president at a comparable point in his term, and he is the first never to have achieved majority...

One of the hardest things to understand about the current economy is that we are in a good, solid place — but not a perfect one. Last week’s jobs report was a touch light on the number of jobs added, but average hourly earnings were up nicely — and, besides, August tends to be a bit of a squirrely month anyway. This economy can best be summed up by a classic childhood fairy tale: “Goldilocks and the Three Bears.” The growth is exactly the way Goldilocks prefers her porridge: not too hot, not too cold, but “just right.” While the...

Thursday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” network host Jim Cramer argued the U.S. economy gave it leverage over China in the trade dispute between the two nations. Cramer told host Joe Kernan that the only ones talking about a recession as a result of the trade war with the Chinese were them in the media. “I think President Trump is set in his ways because he doesn’t see any weakening,” Cramer said. “I mean, look at the jobless report today. I mean, someone earlier said manufacturing was in recession. Well, manufacturing has been in recession in this country for ages. What...

Over the last few weeks, we've been exploring the competing narratives about the US economy -- with the White House insisting that all is well, as many in the media hype up the possibility of a coming recession.  My general conclusion at this point has been that while there are some soft spots and genuine warning signs, the economy's fundamentals remain quite strong.  Unemployment has been quite low, the job market has been quite robust, and wage growth has broken free from years of frustrating stagnation.  We also recently received positive news on other indicators, including productivity, retail sales, and...

A growing share of U.S. business economists think a recession is unlikely before 2021. In a report on Monday, 38% of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics said they believe a slowing economy will tip into recession in 2020. That's down from 42% in a survey taken in February. Only 2% of those polled expect a recession to begin this year, while roughly a third of respondents foresee one hitting in 2021. One reason fewer economists expect a recession next year—the Federal Reserve's move last month to dial back interest rates for the first time since 2008....

From the very moment that Donald Trump won the 2016 election, the media has been chattering incessantly about a major recession that is supposedly just around the corner. As the country awoke to the news of his victory as president, the stock market rocketed upwards, yet liberal economist Paul Krugman inexplicably prophesied in the New York Times that we were probably facing a “global recession” with no end in sight. Less than a week later, he wrote about an impending “Trump slump.” Krugman was not alone. Matt Krantz of USA Today thought a recession was on the way because Trump...

Recent breathless headlines of impending recession exposed the “experts” more than the economy. In attempting to see over the economic horizon, they appeared more to be seeking to see past this administration. The economy remains sound, even as attempts to discredit become less so. On August 19, the Washington Post’s first sentence summed up its one-dimensional angle on the National Association for Business Economics’ August survey: “Most economists believe the United States will tip into recession by 2021, a new survey shows, despite White House insistence the economy is sound.” So it went, with most establishment news outlets bent on...

Bank of America Corp.’s CEO Brian Moynihan says he doesn’t see a recession in the offing because the U.S. consumer remains healthy. . . . “Look, when the yield curve moved around the pundit-ocracy got going, saying, ‘Here, this means a recessions coming,’” Moynihan told CNBC. However, the bank boss said this time the recessionary gauge may be influenced by a global market swirling in some $15 trillion in negative interest rates.

There are three negative supply shocks that could trigger a global recession by 2020. All of them reflect political factors affecting international relations, two involve China, and the United States is at the center of each. Moreover, none of them is amenable to the traditional tools of countercyclical macroeconomic policy. The first potential shock stems from the Sino-American trade and currency war, which escalated earlier this month when President Donald Trump’s administration threatened additional tariffs on Chinese exports, and formally labeled China a currency manipulator. The second concerns the slow-brewing cold war between the U.S. and China over technology. In...

"Thou shalt not bear false witness against thy neighbor." Lies beget other lies, and with them come anger and division. That's what has been happening ever since Donald Trump was elected: false witness against the president. The latest is the charge that Trump's policies will bring economic ruin to the country. He's setting us up for economic Armageddon worse than the Great Depression and all that preceded and followed it. Hard to believe that one man could cause such havoc, but that's the Left's contention. There was talk during the 2016 campaign of an economic meltdown should Trump be elected,...

Former Rep. John Delaney (D-MD) told the Associated Press in Iowa on Wednesday that fellow Democratic presidential candidates were guilty of “cheering on a recession because they want to stick it to Trump.” Delaney, one of the more moderate candidates, has warned fellow candidates that policies such as “Medicare for All” and decriminalized illegal border crossings are bad for the country and sure to fail in a general election. In the first Democratic presidential primary debate in Miami, Florida, in June, Delaney said: “All of the big transformative things we have ever done in this country’s history have happened when...

Desperately searching for scraps of bad economic news that could help push the economy into recession, Yahoo News finds one homebuilder in one state, while ignoring the surging market everywhere for previously-owned housing. I read the headline below and almost started to weep because the economy is in such dire straits that luxury home builders are struggling, especially in California. Luxury Homebuilder's Woes Show Mounting U.S. Slowdown Fears Maybe California should raise taxes and increase regulations some more. That will help. Maybe we need a GoFundMe page to raise money for the luxury home builders. Toll Brothers stock is...

What factors usually re-elect or throw out incumbent presidents? The economy counts most. Recessions, or at least chronic economic pessimism, sink incumbents. Presidents Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush were tagged with sluggish growth, high unemployment and a sense of perceived stagnation -- and were easily defeated. The 2008 financial crisis likely ended any chance for John McCain to continue eight years of Republican rule. Barack Obama campaigned on the message that incumbent George W. Bush was to blame for the meltdown and that McCain, his potential Republican successor, would be even worse. A once-unpopular incumbent Ronald Reagan fought...

The news first reported by Bloomberg on the weekend piqued the interest of economists worldwide. German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz, the report said, had for the first time mulled the possibility of putting together an emergency stimulus package to prop up the economy, should a full-blown recession beset the nation. This in itself revealed a fundamental change in thinking and philosophy as for a decade or so Scholz’ predecessor, Wolfgang Schäuble, had been an unwavering supporter of a policy that just wouldn’t accept any fresh borrowing. His balanced budget policy had even made inroads into the German language, with lawmakers...

In response to recent volatility in the stock market, rising prices (and declining yields) for U.S. Treasury bonds, and difficulties in the trade relationship between the United States and China, some pundits and politicians are forecasting a recession in the U.S., timed to coincide with the 2020 presidential election. The increasing volume of these forecasts is driven partly by partisan hopes that an economic slowdown gives Democrats the best opportunity to defeat President Trump next year. But hopes of this kind do not make for sound economic forecasts. None of the major institutional forecasters is looking ahead to a recession...

Are the Trump haters trying to cause a recession in the US so the president won’t be re-elected? I’m not saying they are just hoping for a recession. It’s obvious the haters would like that. But are they trying to cause a recession?

WASHINGTON (AP) — A strong majority, 74%, of U.S. business economists appear sufficiently concerned about the risks of some of President Donald Trump's economic policies that they expect a recession in the U.S. by the end of 2021. The economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics, in a report released Monday, mostly didn't share Trump's optimistic outlook for the economy, though they generally saw recession coming later than they did in a survey taken in February. Thirty-four percent of the economists surveyed said they believe a slowing economy will tip into recession in 2021. That's up from 25%...

President Donald Trump is warning of an economic crash if he loses reelection, arguing that even voters who personally dislike him should base their ballots on the nation’s strong growth and low unemployment rate. But privately, Trump is growing increasingly worried the economy won’t look so good come Election Day. The financial markets signaled the possibility of a U.S. recession this week, sending a jolt of anxiety to investors, companies and consumers. That’s on top of concerns over Trump’s plans to impose punishing tariffs on goods from China and word from the United Kingdom and Germany that their economies are...

"Real Time" host Bill Maher doubled down Friday on his desire for the U.S. economy to fall into recession in hopes of blocking a second term for President Trump -- telling his panel of guests any hardship that results would be "very worth" it. "I've been saying for about two years that I hope we have a recession and people get mad at me," said Maher, a multimillionaire who would likely be well insulated from a financial downturn. “I’m just saying we can survive a recession," he continued. "We've had 47 of them. We've had one every time there's a...