Posted on 05/27/2024 10:43:29 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Contrary to what many political pundits, including this one, thought would happen as soon as Donald Trump became the presumptive GOP nominee, the former president has maintained a slim but steady polling lead over President Joe Biden. As of today, the RCP Average has Trump with a 1.1% overall advantage, with Quinnipiac being the only May poll showing Biden leading, albeit by a mere 1%. By contrast, Biden enjoyed a 5.6% advantage this time in 2020, an election in which Trump never actually took the average polling lead.
Still, are there signs that Trump's lead might be softer than we think? Nate Cohn, chief political analyst for The New York Times, recently published a piece claiming just that. Titled "A Polling Risk For Trump," Cohn contends that Trump's lead is "built on gains among voters who aren’t paying close attention to politics, who don’t follow traditional news and who don’t regularly vote."
Cohn breaks down the last three New York Times/Siena national polls to show that Biden, in contrast to his overall polling malaise, has maintained a consistent lead among voters who actually voted in 2020.
Conversely, Trump has built his lead with potential voters who didn't vote in the last election (or, if you will, "less engaged" voters).
From Cohn's piece:
Importantly, these low-turnout voters are often from Democratic constituencies. Many back Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate. But in our polling, Biden wins just three-quarters of Democratic-leaning voters who didn’t vote in the last cycle, even as almost all high-turnout Democratic-leaners continue to support him.
This trend illustrates the disconnect between Trump’s lead in the polls and Democratic victories in lower-turnout special elections. And it helps explain Trump’s gains among young and nonwhite voters, who tend to be among the least engaged.
Trump’s dependence on these voters could make the race more volatile soon. As voters tune in over the next six months, there’s a chance that disengaged but traditionally Democratic voters could revert to their usual partisan leanings. Alternately, they might stay home, which could also help Biden.
These "irregular" voters, Cohn points out, lean Democrat, yet are "far less likely to identify as liberal" and "more likely to worry about the economy" than social issues like abortion. In other words, they likely feel the lifestyle crunch imposed by the Biden regime and are expressing support for Trump as an alternative.
Will that pain and frustration turn into actual results on election day? Will those "irregular" voters turn out for Trump, or will they stay home or, worse, come home to Biden? Nobody knows, even Cohn, who points out in his piece that a quarter of voters in any election did not vote in the last one. So, there is plenty of room for as many Trump voters as possible to turn out.
Still, it is clear that Democrats are taking heart from Cohn's piece:
Yes, Trump is strong among non-voters, and most of them will non-vote. https://t.co/kTRec9Ns12— Richard Stengel (@stengel) May 24, 2024
It'll be up to Trump and Republicans to turn these "irregular" voters into actual voters in November.
Setting us up for the STEAL!
I don’t trust TOWNHALL.
I fear that the polls are not nearly enough to cover the Democrats vote fraud!!
Not worth commenting.
That there is even a contest here is revealing of just how stoopid/hateful the electorate is. One county one electoral vote would be more fairly representative of the people. Population centers would no longer be in control of the outcome.
I don’t trust the NY Slimes- who they use to build the story around.
Short of a steal- DJT wins big. I was at the rally in the south Bronx Thursday....i would’ve never imagined what i saw with my own eyes.
Yea, short of a steal. It was all Trump in Pennsylvania in 2020.
I don’t want to rain on your parade, but in 2020, the crowds attending Trump’s rallies were also HUMONGOUS and OVER THE VENUE’s CAPACITIES.
Bien could not even get a hundred people to show up at his rallies even with Bon Jovi singing. He spent most of his time at home.
You know the result then.
Don’t believe your lyin’ eyes, just believe our BS!
81 Million votes!
Next time, Eleventy Jillion votes for the cadaver!
No doubt about the NYT’s who make no bones about untruthfulness.
But outlets like Townhall pretend to stand up for the truth when they are really a warmed-over version of the Lying NYT’s and the lying media.
Just cool
So you believe the vote count in 2020 was legitimate....
......in 2020, the crowds attending Trump’s rallies
were HUMONGOUS while Biden’s were sparse......
We will know the ‘winner’ on Jan 21.
By ‘we’ I assume he means him and his left-wing lunatic brethren who refer to themselves as ‘journalist’?
Doesn’t really matter with voting. Voting is not going to fix the issues. Until Americans realize that...embrace the suck.
“Setting us up for the steal”
That’s exactly what’s Happening. If this gets to an election which I’m on record as being skeptical about Trump will lose. I still think there is going to be a constitutional crisis of proportions that most people cannot envision which will trigger an intervention and postponement of the election.
We are expecting things to get really bad over the summer and we’re planning at some point to decamp to our rural compound until things shake out.
Not in a deep blue state. It might count in a purple state like Wisconsin or Pennsylvania.
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