Free Republic

A worrisome word is popping up in discussions among some economists: Recession. As in, the next one. Many Americans feel the recession that began at the end of 2007 never ended, but in technical terms, the economy has been growing since the middle of 2009. Until recently, it looked as if growth might finally hit “normal” levels of 3% or more later this year, as the housing recovery kicks in and employers finally start to hire more. But recent economic setbacks have fed new worries about tapped-out consumers falling even further behind. “The danger has increased the U.S. economy could...

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales rose less than expected in May and first-time applications for jobless benefits increased last week, but the data did little to alter views the economy is regaining steam. The Commerce Department said on Thursday that retail sales gained 0.3 percent. While that was below the 0.6 percent rise expected on Wall Street, April sales were revised higher to show a 0.5 percent increase, helping to keep growth forecasts intact.

At West Point last week [1], President Barack Obama went to a variant of an economic theme he’ll probably reprise until the day he leaves the Oval Office once and for all (we hope) 31-plus months from now.Obama told the assembled graduating Army cadets and their families: When I first spoke at West Point in (December) 2009 … our nation was just beginning a long climb out of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. What if I told you that nearly five years into the nation’s “long climb” out of the recession, the relative size of the...

Tyler Durden 05/30/2014Submitted by Jeff Nielsen via BullionBullsCanada blog, Regular readers are familiar with my narratives on the U.S. Greater Depression, and (in particular) some of the government’s own charts which depict this economic meltdown most vividly. The collapse in the “civilian participation rate” (the number of people working in the economy) and the “velocity of money” (the heartbeat of the economy) indicate an economy which is not merely in decline, but rather is being sucked downward in a terminal (and accelerating) death-spiral. However, even that previously published data, and the grim analyses which accompanied it could not prepare me...

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. consumer spending fell for the first time in a year in April after two months of solid gains, but the decline is likely temporary given a strengthening jobs market. The Commerce Department said on Friday consumer spending dipped 0.1 percent, which was the first decline since April 2013. But the drop followed an upwardly revised 1.0 percent jump in March that was the largest gain since August 2009. "The disappointing spending report should be viewed in the context of a stronger handoff into the second quarter," said Gennadiy Goldberg, an economist at TD Securities in New...

In the past several years, one of the topics covered in detail on these pages has been the surge in such gimmicks designed to disguise lack of demand and end customer sales, used extensively by US automotive manufacturers, better known as “channel stuffing”, of which General Motors is particularly guilty and whose inventory at dealer lots just hit a new record high. But did you know that when it comes to flat or declining sales and stagnant end demand, channel stuffing is merely the beginning? Presenting… Where the World’s Unsold Cars Go To Die Above is just a few of...

Does the economy move in predictable waves, cycles or patterns? There are many economists that believe that it does, and if their projections are correct, the rest of this decade is going to be pure hell for the United States. Many mainstream economists want nothing to do with economic cycle theorists, but it should be noted that economic cycle theories have enabled some analysts to correctly predict the timing of recessions, stock market peaks and stock market crashes over the past couple of decades. Of course none of the theories discussed below is perfect, but it is very interesting to...

<p>A couple weeks ago, the Commerce Department said U.S. economic output expanded at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.1% in the first three months of the year. A near-stall for the economy, for sure, but at least it wasn’t worse.</p>

As chief operations officer at the San Jose Silicon Valley Chamber of Commerce, Stephanie Caldwell knows her California region's high education levels helped buffer the worst of the recession's job losses. But the affluent community still suffered. "During the recession we were hit hard. Teens were having trouble finding jobs," she said. "After- school and summer jobs were definitely being taken by older people. Go to any Starbucks (SBUX) and you can see that. Hopefully with the economy picking up, that's starting to change. Teen employment has plummeted in a trend that long predates the Great Recession, worrying economists across...

Also, keep in mind that as we explained before, Q1 GDP was boosted around 1% by the forced spending "benefit" of Obamacare: a GDP contribution that will no longer be there. Which means that either normalized Q1 GDP is approaching -2%, or Q2 GDP is about to be whacked by the same amount. Pick your poison. One thing is certain - anyone hoping that 2014 is the year in which the US economy finally achieved "escape velocity" will have to drink the humiliation under the table as they repeat the mantra of apologists everywhere: "snow.... snow.... snow...."

The economy created 288,000 jobs in April, up from 203,000 in March. That’s the second best showing of the Obama recovery but still less than what is needed each month to raise employment to prerecession levels. Those results are consistent with an economy recovering from its winter slump but performing well below full potential—4 to 5 percent GDP growth and 400,000 to 500,000 jobs a month. Construction, manufacturing, retail and wholesale trade, business and professional services, finance, health care, leisure and hospitality, and government employment were all up. Information technology registered a small loss. Hourly earnings made no gain, indicating...

Today’s post is focused on the latest economic news: Growth slowed to a barely discernible 0.1 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2014 according to the the Commerce Department. That’s the weakest pace since the end of 2012 and down from 2.6 percent in the previous quarter. A toast! We’re number .001! According to reliable sources, were it not for increased Federal spending on Obamacare, there would be no growth at all.China has apparently overtaken the U.S. as the world’s largest economy.The Stock Market closes at an all time high because…well, who the hell knows?The government announced it...

The U.S. economy stalled in the first three months of 2014, but don't panic yet as it's probably just the winter weather effect. Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity, grew at a 0.1% annual pace in the first quarter, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Wednesday. That's brutally slow, even by sluggish post-recession standards. Since the Great Recession ended in June 2009, the economy has been growing at a rate of about 2% to 3% per year.

Reagan Turned It Around in Two Years; Obama Has Made It Worse in Five Years It’s a tired and shopworn refrain, but the Obama administration still claims that the so-called economic recovery that started in 2009 is struggling because of the mess the president inherited when he took office. So how does he explain a jobless recovery with no economic growth? We’ll probably never see it in the mainstream media, but thanks to political observer Michael Hausam, we can make a comparison of policy and politics that pits 2009 against 1981. That would directly compare the economy Ronald Reagan inherited...

Russia Warns It May Enter Recession As Soon As This Quarter Tyler Durden 04/21/2014 08:14 -0400 While hardly coming as a surprise to anyone, Russia is getting increasingly more vocal about the near certainty that the country is about to slam headfirst into a technical (at first), and then outright recession. Bloomberg reports that Russia’s economy may halt or contract in 2Q or 3Q, citing Maxim Oreshkin, head of Finance Ministry’s strategic forecasting dept. "It seems that we’ll get negative growth again in the second quarter compared with the previous quarter." Oreshkin says He added that capital outflows may reach...

The One Word Democrats May Not Utter During the Campaign Posted By Rick Moran On April 19, 2014 @ 11:26 am In Politics | And it’s not “Obamacare.”As important as Obamacare is to the Republicans in the midterm elections, the economy still tops everyone’s list as the number one issue facing the country.Some Democratic political consultants are advising candidates to avoid using the term “recovery” when describing the economy — for obvious reasons. This Fox News poll from January shows that 74% of Americans still think we’re in a recession. Any Democrat uttering the word “recovery” is likely to...

The Obama administration once again has punted on a final decision for the Keystone XL pipeline, announcing ahead of the holiday weekend that it is extending a key review period indefinitely -- a move that could push off a determination until after the midterm elections. Republicans, as well as red-state Democrats who want the pipeline approved, slammed the administration for the delay. "It's absolutely ridiculous that this well over five year long process is continuing for an undetermined amount of time," Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, D-N.H., said in a statement.

The U.S. economy has been in a recession since 1997. While I am not referring to the NBER’s definition of a recession (that allegedly ended in June 2009), I am talking about declining real incomes, labor force participation and M2 Money Velocity. Both labor force participation and M2 Money Velocity peaked in 1997 while real median household income peaked in 1999. And all three have been declining ever since.And to add another slap in the face to consumers, the purchasing power for consumers has been deteriorating ever since the creation of The Federal Reserve System in 1913.Once the 16 year...

<p>The women’s clothing retailer failed to find a buyer or new capital. A liquidation sale is planned.</p> <p>Women’s specialty clothing chain Coldwater Creek filed for bankruptcy on Friday and said it will close all of its stores around the country, including 11 in Minnesota.</p>

With 30 year bond yields set to close their lowest in 10 months, CNBC's Rick Santelli is concerned at the signals that the Treasury yield curve is sending.If yesterday's minutes from the Fed were supposed to walk back their 'hawkish' tone, then Santelli slams they are "gonna need a really big billboard" because the term structure is still flattening. "When 'flattening' is the theme, that is not painting a rosy outlook for the long-term economy," and as Santelli warns, this is when the Fed is pulling out of its extraordinary policies. Santelli screams, "the entire monetary policy side has to...