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UPDATE 10/25: President Bush continues to maintain a structural edge in the Electoral College that has worked to his advantage this entire campaign. However, the states that are producing that advantage have shifted since the summer. In our initial Electoral analysis we suggested that the election would boil down to Florida and Ohio, with Kerry having to win one of those two states and President Bush simply needing to carry them both to gain reelection. At the time we suggested that one of the President 's advantages was the possibility of offsetting a loss in Ohio or Florida by poaching...

Bush supporters need not be concerned about a possible popular vote win but electoral college defeat. I did an extensive analysis this weekend of the popular vote according to the most recent polling for each of the 50 states + DC. I used the polling information from the Real Clear Politics website where they have polls listed for all 50 states + DC. My analysis showed that, as in 2000, there is a greater risk that the democrat party nominee could win the popular vote and lose the election in the electoral college. I took the 2000 turnout by state,...

The fact is Democrats are angry, desperate, and absolutely beside themselves at facing the prospect of another four years with George W. Bush as President. Frankly, I don' t blame them. With so much invested emotionally, it will be a crushing psychological blow for liberals to see Bush reelected a week from this Tuesday. Furthermore, if Bush wins big it could be a defeat that threatens the very foundations of the liberal movement itself. But even that is no excuse for some of the behavior we're seeing. It's no excuse for bending the rules, breaking the law, and generally treating...

PORTLAND, Maine (AP) -- The Zogby International poll, conducted for the Maine Sunday Telegram, gives Kerry 50 percent of the vote, with Bush getting 39 percent. Independent Ralph Nader got just over one percent. The poll also suggested that two statewide referendums are headed for defeat on the November second ballot. Fifty-nine percent of the respondents said they would vote against a referendum to cap property taxes at one percent of a property's assessed value. Twenty-eight percent said they were for the measure, and 13 percent were unsure. On a referendum that would ban bear-baiting in the state, 54 percent...

Maybe you remember that a couple of weeks ago I columnized on the poll of the Arkansas presidential race conducted by Opinion Research Associates in Little Rock for us at the Arkansas News Bureau. President Bush was up by nine points. I declared therefore the existence of empirical evidence that ours was no battleground state. I asserted that John Kerry was getting killed in South Arkansas by the National Rifle Association's opposition to him on gun issues and his perceived cultural liberalism on gay issues. That was the percolating conventional wisdom nationally at the time. Arkansas was universally painted pink,...

check out real clear politics, we are ahead in every senate race (including Colorado) except Alaska. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Senate.html

Good to see.

Trying to check out the latest polls. Just getting Apache web server test page. What's up? Anyone? Lando

Michigan  ( 17 Electoral Votes) >>Results from 2000 Election: Bush 46.1, Gore 51.3, Nader 2.0  (Gore +5.2)   Poll | Date Sample MoE Bush Kerry Nader Spread RCP Average | 10/11 - 10/19 - - 45.3 46.0 1.5 Kerry +0.7 Detroit News | 10/18-19 400 LV 5.0 47 43 1 Bush +4 Mason-Dixon | 10/15-10/18 625 LV 4.0 46 47 - Kerry +1 Research 2000 | 10/11-10/13 600 LV 4.0 43 48 2 Kerry +5 All Michigan Polls | Nader: ON the Ballot - In Court

Just my opinion here, but Kerry is still strong, it seems, among the states. While Bush is unquestionably winning nationally, he seems to be stalled in some states. Ohio and Florida come to mind, as well as Wisconsin and Iowa. New Mexico is a mystery, as the last poll was done in September, with Bush up by three. I do not know what to believe in regards to New Hampshire. Kerry is a known quantity there, so you would think that his liberalism would doom him, but that is not the case thus far. I feel that something has to...

RealClearPolitics Poll AverageSM3-Way Race: Bush/Cheney vs Kerry/Edwards vs Nader/CamejoSend This Page to a Friend | Graph: RCP Historical Poll Average Poll Date Bush/ Cheney Kerry/ Edwards Nader/ Camejo Spread RCP Average 10/13 - 10/17 48.8% 45.2% 1.7% Bush +3.6 Zogby (1211 LV) 10/15 - 10/17 45% 45% 1% TIE ABC/Wash Post (1203 LV)* 10/14 - 10/16 50% 46% 2% Bush +4 CNN/USAT/Gallup (788 LV) 10/14 - 10/16 52% 44% 1% Bush +8 TIPP (786 LV) 10/13 - 10/16 48% 45% 2% Bush +3 Time (865 LV w/leaners) 10/14 - 10/15 48% 47% 3% Bush +1 Newsweek (LV) 10/14 -...

This is amazing! If you look at the RealClearPolitics (RCP) Average of all polls, which is considered THE MOST ACCURATE POLL (futures markets notwithstanding), looks eerily similar to the IEM election futures market. I think this is excellent news for Bush. Take a Look:Iowa electronic Market: RCP Average:

RealClearPolitics Poll AverageSM3-Way Race: Bush/Cheney vs Kerry/Edwards vs Nader/CamejoSend This Page to a Friend | Graph: RCP Historical Poll Average Poll Date Bush/ Cheney Kerry/ Edwards Nader/ Camejo Spread RCP Average 10/13 - 10/16 49.0% 45.0% 1.7% Bush +4.0 ABC/Wash Post (1203 LV)* 10/14 - 10/16 50% 46% 2% Bush +4 CNN/USAT/Gallup (788 LV) 10/14 - 10/16 52% 44% 1% Bush +8 Zogby (1211 LV) 10/14 - 10/16 46% 44% 1% Bush +2 TIPP (786 LV) 10/13 - 10/16 48% 45% 2% Bush +3 Time (865 LV w/leaners) 10/14 - 10/15 48% 47% 3% Bush +1 Newsweek (LV) 10/14...

The figures highlighted in (green?)at the top of the polls are the most current. They determine the RCP Average. Since the last debate, George W has been steadily climbing. As an added attraction, here is a public service: Tired of that frayed, smudgy, multi-copied conversion chart tacked to your wall? Here's a free, full-colored, 8 1/2 x 11 Fractions to Decimals Conversion Chart

This site will show every poll and when it was taken.

Looking at the "RealClear Politics" plot of the presidential polls, I see two long term trendlines, punctuated by a hell of a lot of what I would refer to as "experimental error": I don't believe that public opinion has been changing as much as these polls seem to suggest. The variation we see up through July looks like what engineers call "sample aliasing" or "jitter". Note that it falls well within the oft-claimed ±4 points of error. This is typical for data taken in noisy sampling environments; I've seen this kind of thing many times. August and September are different....

Bush JA: 48.0 Approve/48.0 Disapprove Poll Date Approve Disapprove Spread RCP Average 10/9-10/15 48.0% 48.0% EVEN Time 10/14-10/15 49% 49% EVEN Rasmussen 10/13 - 10/15 53% 46% +7% CBS News 10/9 - 10/11 43% 48% -5% CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10/9-10/10 47% 49% -2%

Post Debate Polls RCP Average 10/12 - 10/15 48.8% 45.2% 1.6% Bush +3.6 Time (865 LV) 10/14 - 10/15 48% 46% 3% Bush +2 Newsweek (LV) 10/14 - 10/15 50% 44% 1% Bush +6 ABC/Wash Post (1203 LV)* 10/13 - 10/15 50% 47% 1% Bush +3 Zogby (1211 LV) 10/13 - 10/15 48% 44% 1% Bush +4 TIPP (786 LV) 10/12 - 10/15 48% 45% 2% Bush +3

Cheerleaders for TerrorismBy Erick StakelbeckFrontPageMagazine.com | June 17, 2003 Two groups whom Islamic terrorists can count on for sympathy and support are radical lawyers and their counterparts in American law schools. Lynne Stewart is a hero of the National Lawyers Guild and a sought-after campus lecturer. While out on bail under indictment for colluding with a terrorist leader, she has been a sought-after speaker for law school audiences who relish her attacks on Attorney General John Ashcroft as a modern-day fascist and on her country for its imperialist and racist policies. Stewart made national headlines in April 2002 when she...

Not In Our Name and the World Wide Terrorism WebBy Michael TremoglieFrontPageMagazine.com | March 19, 2003 In the run-up to this war, Not In Our Name became one of the major “peace” organizers and coalitions in the United States. Not In Our Name has spared no cost purchasing ads in newspapers around the world to publish its anti-American Statement of Conscience.  Its signatories include scores of Hate America bigwigs, like Noam Chomsky, Howard Zinn, Michael Parenti, Gloria Steinem and Barbara Kingsolver.  Hollywood icons (and many more has-beens) like Danny Glover, Jessica Lange, Tyne Daly, Martin Sheen and Ed Harris have...