Posted on 10/25/2004 12:21:36 AM PDT by picturefan
Bush supporters need not be concerned about a possible popular vote win but electoral college defeat. I did an extensive analysis this weekend of the popular vote according to the most recent polling for each of the 50 states + DC. I used the polling information from the Real Clear Politics website where they have polls listed for all 50 states + DC. My analysis showed that, as in 2000, there is a greater risk that the democrat party nominee could win the popular vote and lose the election in the electoral college.
I took the 2000 turnout by state, added 10% for anticipated increased turnout and dropped in the state poll numbers. I mostly ignored Nader and third party candidates. The result was Bush 50.1 vs. Kerry 49.9. Bush wins the electoral college (RCP state poll averages has Bush leading in IA, WI, FL and tied in OH) although finishing just .2% ahead in the overall popular vote -- well under the current national poll lead of 2-5 points. Kerry's problem is similar to Gore's. He is leading in four of the most populous states, CA, NY, IL and MA, by margins of 10-25%. These four states give him a nearly 5 million vote margin that offsets Bush's big leads in the South. TX is the only large state where Bush has a > 15% lead. Bush gets EVs from FL (and possibly OH) with narrow popular vote margins. Kerry gets EVs from PA and MI with slightly greater margins (according to the RCP averages).
In sum it appears very unlikely that Bush could win the national vote and lose the EV college. It would be virtually impossible for this to happen if he indeed wins the national pop. vote by 1% or more as current national polls indicate he will.
Tell me...what color is the sky in your world?
So it's all about Ohio again--given that we have to win Florida first.
just ask yourself every day till election Nov 2...what did I do today to ensure a GWB victory...?
2 facts:
1. The EC is closer the popular vote now than in 2000 because of the 2000 census. I think a half dozen or so EVs were transfered to Red states.
2. People must remember that Bush won the majority of states in 2000, 30-20. That means that Bush got 60% of the 100 EVs that make the EC dramatically different from the popular vote.
The power of the states CANNOT be underestimated. If we subtracted the 100 EV that belong to the states, then multiply the remaining 438 EV by the popular vote totals (adjusted by subtracting Nader and other 3rd party candidates), Gore wins 221-217. If we then adjust that with the 100 senate EV, Bush wins 277-261.
We could still lose.
Shouldn't this have been in "vanity"?
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