Posted on 10/17/2004 11:50:05 PM PDT by Remember_Salamis
This is amazing! If you look at the RealClearPolitics (RCP) Average of all polls, which is considered THE MOST ACCURATE POLL (futures markets notwithstanding), looks eerily similar to the IEM election futures market. I think this is excellent news for Bush. Take a Look:
Iowa electronic Market:
RCP Average:
A lot can change in two weeks.
youre a real ray of sunshine, arent you ?
If a poll is accurate, then it should reflect what the public, ie the market, thinks.
But Real Clear Politics does not poll. It averages a bunch of polls possibly with different methodologies. Among the problems this could create is that some likely voter could be included twice in the Real Clear average, although this is probably pretty unlikely. That in principle could not happen in a real poll.
I am not sure if anyone has derived the properties of the average of several polls. I am not sure if we know what the standard error of the Real Clear average is? Can we invoke the central limit theorem and claim normality for the average of some sample proportions? I am not sure. Can we calculate a p-value using Chebyshev's Inequality again I have not thought this out.
Dont jump on Phil
I dont know why he says it but its true
A lot can change in two weeks and the media will be humping Kerry like crazy so be ready and fight
Just trying to keep us all sane and on track.
dealing with democRATS and we are supposed to stay sane ?
lol...i was kidding with you
I hear that... I live in the San Francisco Bay Area, sometimes it's like being the only doctor in the asylum.
I just pulled my Iowa chart from Friday and looking at this one tonight ...... KERRY IS DIVING FAST!
MAY DAY MAY DAY....U.S.S. HANOI JOHN !
Sure can, Bush could end up with a 15 point lead and have a major landslide, pulling along a lot of Senate and Congressional races with him.
Bush needs to make a stopover in South Dakota to help out Thune. If Daschle loses, NV Sen. Reid will become the minority leader, and Reid has a history of being much more friendly towards the opposition. Basically, the obstructionist wing of the Democratic Senate would be leader-less.
Your observations are sound, but who is to say, in some states like Florida and Califorina and New York, "likely voters" don't vote more than once! There were thousands of retirees who cast votes in both Florida and New York in the 2000 election.
If Bush makes a stop-over in "Thune country," it will be a sure sign he thinks he's got the Big show in the bag. A trip by the vice president is more likely.
Even though they elect four democrats to panhandle for farm subsidies in the Senate, they LOVE Bush in the Dakotas.
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