Free Republic

Will all this be enough for mass media to win the day? People will find out next week. Even if Donald Trump had lost the 2016 election, instead of won it in a surprise, the media’s coverage of his campaign and supporters would have been a horrific failure. They presented that race as unwinnable for Trump and as if his support was inexplicable.Their response to their 2016 failures has been not to improve their journalism in any way, shape, or form, but to decide that they didn’t do enough to bias that election in their preferred direction. Their nearly four-year...

MICHIGAN: Trump 49% (+2) Biden 47% Jorgensen 2% @trafalgar_group, LV, 10/25-28

The Harris Survey For Release: Monday k~, January 24th, 1983 1983 #7 ISSN 0273-1037 MONDALE LEADS REAGAN IN TRIAL HEAT FOR THE PRESIDENCY By Louis Harris In a trial heat for the 1984 presidential election, former Vice President Walter Mondale is now leading President Ronald Reagan by a 53-44 percent margin. This is the first time in modern political history that an incumbent president has run behind his potential opponent so early in his term. Last April, Mondale and Reagan finished in a 48-48 percent dead heat. This latest Harris Survey, taken by telephone between January 2nd and 5th among...

I'm posting this to dance on their error in November! Unfortunately I cannot post their graphics as it is a series of interactive charts w/ 1 hour updates. HOWEVER, here is their November 8th 2016 prediction for Hillary-v-Trump; "Hillary Clinton has got this. Probably. Very probably"

Until the 2020 election on Nov. 3, the IBD/TIPP Presidential Tracking Poll is posting daily results of the race for the White House between President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden. The latest presidential poll from IBD/TIPP finds a slightly narrower lead for former Vice President Joe Biden, but further cause to doubt that President Donald Trump can mount a comeback in the race's last eight days.

(CNN)Joe Biden did a better job in the final debate on Thursday, according to a CNN Instant Poll of debate watchers. Overall, 53% of voters who watched the debate said that Biden won the matchup, while 39% said that President Donald Trump did. Viewers once again said that Biden's criticisms of Trump were largely fair (73% said they were fair, 26% unfair), and they split over whether Trump's attacks on Biden were fair (50% said yes, 49% no). That's a more positive outcome for Trump. In a CNN Instant Poll after the first presidential debate, just 28% said they thought...

Former Vice President Joe Biden said Friday that he knew a month before the 2016 election that Hillary Clinton would lose key battleground states. Biden made the comment during a closed-door appearance with Mitt Romney at the annual Romney-hosted E2 Summit, reports Politico. Based on his assessment of campaigning in those key battleground states, he said, he knew a month before the election that Clinton would lose them. Biden also stepped on Hillary just last month, saying he never thought she was a “great candidate” during a conference in Las Vegas. …

Democratic nominee Joe Biden has a 10-point advantage over President Donald Trump, according to new Pew Research Center poll, which surveyed more than 10,000 registered American voters. Biden's national lead is aided by how Americans view his ability to combat the coronavirus crisis versus how Trump has handled the pandemic thus far. Overall, Biden has the support of 52 per cent of registered voters, compared to the 42 per cent who said they support Trump.

President Trump went on with Sean Hannity last night. President Trump spoke out about their internal polling in Iowa and Ohio. President Trump: But I’m looking at polls. We’re doing great in Iowa. We’re doing great in Ohio. We’re doing great in many, many places. Then you come home and turn on the television and you see gee, I’m four down. I can’t believe it. But they’re fake polls. Trump campaign spokeswoman Samantha Zager added, “President Trump and his campaign are extremely confident about our chances in these states. We have been talking directly with voters for years via multiple...

Sorry about letting this fall through the crack folks. We all know that the polling is looking nutty. I mean, Joe Biden is ahead of Donald Trump by 10-17 points in some of these laughable polls. You can’t be ahead by that much and be struggling in Miami-Dade County. You can’t be up that much and with some recent polls showing Trump and Biden are tied in Michigan. When Michael Moore is worried, noting the enthusiasm gap and the race tightening in his home state, you know the race isn’t a lock for Biden. The former VP has his work...

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/white_house_watch_oct07 Survey of 2,500 Likely Voters was conducted September 30, October 1 and 4-6, 2020 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points.

A CNN national poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden is leading the president by 16 points among likely voters. The poll shows 57 percent of likely voters say they back Biden and 41 percent back President Donald Trump. The poll was conducted between October 1 to October 4.

One of the main reasons Donald Trump won the 2016 presidential election is voters who disapproved of both Trump and his rival, Hillary Clinton, broke for Trump by about 18 percentage points. "In the abstract, it’s something of a statistical quirk," the Washington Post's Philip Bump recently explained. "In practice, though, it might have given Trump the White House." In contrast, Trump's party lost control of the House of Representatives in the 2018 midterm elections due mainly to large numbers of voters who cast ballots for Trump just two years earlier switched sides and voted for Democrats — particularly college-educated...

WITH 30 days to go until the US presidential election, Democratic candidate Joe Biden is pulling away from Donald Trump, according to the latest opinion polls. The surveys, one taken following last week’s chaotic presidential debate and the other after Mr Trump tested positive for Covid-19, will make grim reading for the US president as he undergoes treatment at the Walter Reed National Military Medical Centre in Bethesda, Maryland. A post-debate poll conducted by NBC News and The Wall Street Journal put Mr Biden 14 points ahead of the president, the biggest gap the survey has recorded this year. Should...

Reuters link https://t.co/mCdTllTVuk NBC poll https://t.co/KJicRpznHq Umm, this needs to turn around quickly or else the Senate will be a total wash out too.

Mathematics and statistics has been a second language for me for 35+ years in my professional life. They are a necessary tool that can be used to measure, estimate, build, engineer and solve programs. They can also be used to persuade. Most people understand that the latter can often be misleading and abused, hence the infamous saying, "Lies and damned lies and statistics."This morning's lesson focuses on Margin of Error.The first thing to understand about measuring anything is there is error. It does not matter if it is weight, volume, mass, or public opinion. Margin of Error (MOE) states by...

Election analyst Nate Silver runs a website called FiveThirtyEight.His website now gives Joe Biden a 77 in 100 chance of winning (we call that a 77% chance, but whatever). For the record, on Election Day 2016, at 10:41 a.m., Silver posted a story on FiveThirtyEight.“Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton,” said his headline. Silver said his “forecast has Clinton favored in states and congressional districts totaling 323 electoral votes, including all the states President Obama won in 2012 except Ohio and Iowa, but adding North Carolina.” He hedged his bet...

Gov. Andrew Cuomo is finally ready to call out the National Guard — to staff polling places on Election Day! After placing the Guard “on standby” but not sending them in as riots raged in New York City this past summer, Cuomo said Monday that he might pull the trigger and actually deploy troops to ensure voters can cast in-person ballots in the Nov. 3 presidential election. During a teleconference with reporters, Cuomo said that “the Board of Elections is basically a person-powered, staffing function” and that the June 23 primary elections “showed a lot of issues with the local...

One of the interesting things about Donald Trump’s upset win in 2016 was that, in retrospect, all the signs were there: It was obvious in the immediate aftermath that key swing states in the Midwest were under-polled; it was obvious that polls were undercounting whites without college degrees; and it was obvious that Trump was closing in on Hillary Clinton at the end, especially in the key states of Michigan and Pennsylvania. Still, it was difficult to put all that together into a coherent case for a Trump upset, especially since the arguments for Hillary Clinton winning were more prevalent...

H/T to my friend Ed Morrisey over at HotAir for this story calling attention to what seem to be some unmistakable shifting in polls away from the models that produced wide margins of victory for Democrats in the 2018 midterm election.I’m not a “polling guy”. If you want expert polling analysis, I recommend my colleague here at Red State Scott Hounsell. But they are a curiosity for me, and the article from HotAir had some interesting nuggets of polling information. As reported in the NYT, recent polling shows some potential weakness for Joe Biden in a few key demographic groups...