Posted on 10/28/2020 9:55:11 AM PDT by Triple
The Harris Survey
For Release: Monday k~, January 24th, 1983 1983 #7
ISSN 0273-1037
MONDALE LEADS REAGAN IN TRIAL HEAT FOR THE PRESIDENCY
By Louis Harris
In a trial heat for the 1984 presidential election, former Vice President Walter Mondale is now leading President Ronald Reagan by a 53-44 percent margin. This is the first time in modern political history that an incumbent president has run behind his potential opponent so early in his term. Last April, Mondale and Reagan finished in a 48-48 percent dead heat.
This latest Harris Survey, taken by telephone between January 2nd and 5th among a cross section of 891 likely voters screened from a larger cross section of 1,254 adults nationwide, amply demonstrates just how much President Reagan has slipped. Indeed, not only has the President fallen behind among those Democratic groups where he made a strong showing in 1980, but also he is experiencing some major losses in his 1980 majority base:
--Regionally, the most decisive shifts have taken place in the Midwest, traditionally Republican, and in the West, previously viewed as Reagan country. The President now trails Mondale in the West by 56-41 percent, a complete turnaround from the 53-37 percent margin by which he swept that region in 1980. In the Midwest, Mondale now leads by 53-43 percent, another big shift from the 49-40 percent margin the President held in the last election. In the East, where Reagan won a narrow 45-42 percent plurality in 1980, he is now behind Mondale by 12 points, 54-42 percent. The South is the only region where the results are close: Mondale now holds a narrow 49-48 percent edge in the region where Reagan had a 50-44 percent plurality in 1980.
--A startling change has occurred in the suburbs, where Mondale now leads Reagan by 50-46 percent. The President won the suburbs in a three-way race in 1980 by a decisive 50-39 percent. It is virtually impossible for any Republican to win the White House without winning the suburban vote by at least 8 points. In the traditionally Demo cratic big cities, Mondale holds a commanding 63-35 percent majority, dramatically better than the 47-42 percent plurality held by Jimmy Carter in 1980. Among rural voters, Reagan and Mondale are tied at 49 percent. In the small towns, however, the President is holding on to a 51-42 percent lead.
--By political philosophy, President Reagan wins among conservatives by 59-38 percent, but this is still well below the 67-28 percent majority he held in 1980.
Among middle of the road voters, a group Reagan carried by 47-41 percent in the last presidential election, he now trails Mondale by 53-43 percent. Liberals prefer Mondale, not unexpectedly, by 79-20 percent. Most significant now is the fact that any moderate to conservative coalition seems to have disappeared, as conservatives have isolated them selves from the broad middle of the electorate.
--Among men, Reagan wins by 52-46 percent; among women, Mondale soars to a 58-37 percent lead. If the election had been held this month, Mondale would owe his victory to the strong anti-Reagan sentiments of women.
--Among union members, Mondale defeats Reagan by 60-37 percent, a 23 point margin, close to a normal Democratic majority. In 1980, Reagan lost the union vote by only 9 points in a three-way race, 51-40 percent.
--As expected, the President would win the Republican vote, but his current 79-16 percent margin is considerably lower than the 85-9 percent by which he won that vote in the last election. Mondale sweeps the Democratic vote by 82-17 percent, a much stronger showing than the 69-23 percent held by Carter in 1980. Among political independents,
THE HARRIS SURVEY (Bad format - my apologies-triple) January 24th, 1983 January 1983 April 1982 44 48 42 43 48 41 35 46 51 49 44 47 42 42 53 3 48 4 54 4 53 4 49 3 56 3 63 2 50 4 42 7 49 2 54 2 51 2 56 2 50 8 46 2 58 5 60 3
January 1983 Demographics East Midwest South West Cities Suburbs Towns Rural Age 18-29 30-49 50-64 65 " over 52 Women 37 Men Union member 37 -2
Mondale holds a 53-45 percent lead, a complete turnaround from the 52-28 percent victory scored by Reagan in 1980.
--MondaIe wins among all age groups, but the most dramatic win is among those in the 50-64 age bracket. Reagan won this vote by 54-40 percent in 1980, his largest margin among any age group. Now, he is running behind among these voters by 56-42 percent. This is probably the price the President is paying for surfacing a possible 40 percent cutback in Social Security benefits for those who retire at 62. Among those 65 and over, who supported Reagan by 51-44 percent in 1980, Mondale now leads by 50-42 percent. Among young people under 30, who supported the President by 46-40 percent in 1980, Mondale is now 54-44 percent ahead. Finally, among the 30-49 age group, Mondale holds a narrow 51-47 percent lead, whereas Reagan won this vote by 46-40 percent in a three-way race in 1980. Since people age 50 and over vote with almost twice as high a frequency as those under 50, the shift away from Reagan among older voters is particularly damaging to his chances.
--Among those who voted for Reagan in 1980, he wins now by 70-26 percent. But having lost more than a fourth of his own voters, this President may find it hard to win back so much lost ground.
TABLES (formatting errors mine-triple)
Between January 2nd and 5th, the Harris Survey asked a cross section of 891 likely voters nationwide by telephone:
-Now suppose in 1984 the election for President was between Ronald Reagan for the Republicans and former Vice President Walter Mondale for the Democrats. If you had to choose today, would you vote for Reagan or for Mondale?"
REAGAN V S . MONDALE IN 1 3 8 4 Not Reagan Mondale sure (continued) %% -%
THE HARRIS SURVEY
January 24th, 1983 January 1983 Democraphics (cont. ) Voted Reagan in '80 Voted Carter in '80 Republican Democrat Independent Conservative Middle of the road Liberal 70 26 4 11 88 1 79 16 5 17 82 1 45 53 2 59 38 3 43 53 4 20 79 1 REAGAN V S . -3 MONDALE IN 1 9 8 4 ( C O N T . ) METHODOLOGY
This latest Harris Survey was conducted by telephone with a representative cross section of likely voters 18 and over at 891 different sampling points within the United States between January 2nd and 5th. Figures for age, sex and race were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. In a sample of this size, one can say with 95% certainty that the results are within plus or minus 3.3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled.
This statement conforms to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
(c) 1983
The Chicago Tribune World Rights Reserved Tribune Company Syndicate, Inc. 220 East 42nd Street, New York, NY 10017
January 24th, 1983 ? Meh. What did the polls show close to the 1984 Presidential election?
37 years later, the MSM is *still* shoveling out the same lies.
Mondale promises to raise taxes:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eowwp6bkpo0
Sociopaths lie.
Fools believe the lies.
Election night 1980 Tom Brokaw said that no one saw the Reagan landslide over Carter coming.
They use polls to push an outcome, not to report the news
worst i ever saw...was for Michigan Governor 1990...last poll the day before the election had Blanchard (D) up 14 points..Engler (R) won by 1.5 the next day...
Oh, yes. I remember well. The polls all had us worried that Reagan was going to lose big time. Then he swept the country. My blinders came off and I now see pollsters as being worse than rabid dogs. And deserving the same cure.
No Repub has led in the Communist Polls in 50 yrs.
you’re pissed off about a poll taken 22 months before the election of 1984?
Prozac can help.
Maybe this will be the end for polling.
There are endless examples of polls being wrong, and very few examples of polls being right. Yet, they still operate without any accountability. Confirmation bias in action.
I’m pissed off? Need medication?
I’m Just effectively pointing out that polls are not to be trusted.
Bless your heart.
3
January? A year before the election. I’d be interested in knowing October 28, 1980.
They talk about opinion polls in Intro Statistics... Can’t ever free them from sampling bias, PERIOD.
Well, look it up then.
I bet it was wrong, and that it favored Mondale.
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