Posted on 09/17/2020 12:00:48 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
One of the interesting things about Donald Trump’s upset win in 2016 was that, in retrospect, all the signs were there: It was obvious in the immediate aftermath that key swing states in the Midwest were under-polled; it was obvious that polls were undercounting whites without college degrees; and it was obvious that Trump was closing in on Hillary Clinton at the end, especially in the key states of Michigan and Pennsylvania. Still, it was difficult to put all that together into a coherent case for a Trump upset, especially since the arguments for Hillary Clinton winning were more prevalent and more straightforward. One thing that was not obvious was the magnitude of the looming split between the popular vote and electoral votes.
A similar situation exists today. It is much more straightforward to make the case for a Joe Biden win. He’s up seven percentage points in the RealClearPolitics Average of national polls, and leads in the key swing states. This lead has been durable and stable over the course of the race. The president has presided over an economic collapse and a pandemic that will have killed more than 200,000 Americans by the end of this month.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
The path I see is:
1. Thwart the Democrat cheating.
There is no Step 2.
If RCP is to be believed, it’s Biden’s election to lose. That he is even close is hurl inducing.
Later
I’m listening to Trump’s remarks during the White House Conference on American History. He’s going all out against the left, the riots, the vandals, and taking on Critical Race Theory.
On the other hand, liberals are shocked that Trump is within striking distance of Biden. They expect Biden to completely annihilate Trump in PV and EV.
Will Trump campaign in Virginia?
The problem with the RCP average is all the junk polls used to get to that average. Most of the polls are skewed towards the dimoKKKRATS.
Agree
“On the other hand, liberals are shocked that Trump is within striking distance of Biden.”
Hillary wonders why she isn’t ‘50 points ahead - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVCHU4wCBQg
Between Soros’ money and evil intent, the Deep State, and the DEMs’ willingness to commit voter fraud out in the open, we’re pretty much at that point.
Trump is my favorite to win Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona, New Hampshire and even Colorado. Couple that with the solid Red States and that leaves no path for Biden.
RCP is not to be believed. They were wildly off in 2016 and 2018 in many States. You are purposefully “concerned.”
Your trolling is obvious.
If Trump wins Colorado, he’ll definitely win Nevada as well.
If one believes the polls, then that statement is a simple conclusion that one would draw. Biden is the favorite, even if not an overwhelming one. The betting markets put him as a slight favorite above Trump.
“A similar situation exists today.”
Uh,no it isn’t. If anything Trump has a clearer path to victory than Biden does. The MSM is still using the same voter model as 2016
No Poll counts until the Debates. That two weeks away. This 90 minutes will tell the tale. If Biden cancels—he loses. He will be seen as chicken, feckless, and weak.Maybe if he gets sick and drops out—then Harris will have to face Trump. She is better, but still beset with baggage. She could pick Hillary as her VP to make it a Women vs Men race. The MSM have already written the stories that Trump lost the debate—BUT it is the American People who will really decide the issue.
There remain problems in polling.
They just had an election in New Brunswick, Canada. There were, I think, 9 pre-election polls. They undercounted the populist party by 3 points (and over-counted the left-of-center parties 3 points). The way polling errors go, this resulted in a 6 point swing.
With a 6 point swing, we win AZ, FL, MI, NC, NH and PA of the battleground states in which we’re currently behind in the RCP average, and win in the electoral college. (This isn’t to write off the other battleground states.)
Take a look at the RCP map. Based on currently polling, there are plenty of votes in the toss-up category for either candidate to feel good at this point.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/2020_elections_electoral_college_map.html
Conversely, each candidate (and their supporters) has their work cut out for them. I expect our candidate to rise to the occasion. The man is a beast on the campaign trail and a real inspiration. The other guy is an idiot. That right there will make the difference.
Well, you can dissect polls and turnout models all day long, but the fact is a lot of people vote based on their gut instinct, and gut instinct tells you that Hillary was a horrible candidate, and it tells you Joe Biden is also a horrible candidate.
People don’t need to agree with or even like Trump when those are the alternatives. He’s going to walk away with this.
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