Free Republic

Fox News polls released on Wednesday show Joe Biden gaining momentum in the key battleground states of Wisconsin, Arizona, and North Carolina, but those results appear to reflect significant oversampling of Democrats, particularly in Arizona and North Carolina. In Arizona, for instance, the Fox News poll shows the former vice president with a nine point lead over the president among likely voters, 49 percent to 40 percent. In Wisconsin the Fox News poll shows former Vice President Biden with an eight point lead over President Trump among likely voters, 50 percent to 42 percent.

Re: Oversample From:pbegala@hatcreekent.com To: tmatzzie@gmail.com, susan@messageinc.com, john.podesta@gmail.com, davidbrockdc@gmail.com Date: 2008-04-29 21:47 Subject: Re: Oversample Good. ----- Original Message ----- From: Tom Matzzie To: Begala, Paul; Susan Mccue ; John Podesta ; David Brock Sent: Tue Apr 29 19:27:54 2008 Subject: Oversample FYI: We are going to try to do an oversample of seniors on the poll. Sample too small otherwise.

This is a summary of a YouGov/Economist Poll conducted October 22-26, 2016. The sample is 1376 Registered Voters with a Margin of Error of ±3.1%.

Here is my analysis of oversampling during polling vs Gallups analysis of that actual party ID in a state is.

Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 11 points in the U.S. presidential race, showing little change after she became the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee this week, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Friday.

Retired pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson has pulled to within 4 points of GOP presidential front-runner Donald Trump, a new poll shows. In the New York Times/CBS News survey released Tuesday, Trump maintains the lead of the presidential pack, with 27 percent support. But Carson is within striking distance, at 23 percent, which is within the margin of error, making it a statistical dead heat.Carson's rise compared with his polling at 6 percent support in the pre-Aug. 6 debate Times/CBS News survey; Trump was at 24 percent in that earlier poll, showing Carson's gains the most significant in that time frame,...

Another heavily skewed poll for the messiah. This one is especially pathetic given it is three different states they claim will have 9 points or more dem voting advantage turnout.

Excluding the Rasmussen and Gallup overnight tracking polls, there have been seven major national surveys released this week. President Obama has recorded an all-time low job approval rating in six of the seven: Quinnipiac 46% Marist 46% CNN/Opinion Research 48% Ipsos/McClatchy 49% CBS News/NY Times 50% Bloomberg* 54% Only one poll - FOX News/Opinion Dynamics - showed in increase in President Obama's job approval rating over the last month. In the current survey, FOX has Obama at 50% approval, up from his all-time low of 46% recorded in last month's poll.

Republican turnout was +2 in 2004. Ridiculous oversampling of Dems (Obama ahead with women by 27%). McCain staying in Iowa makes sense!