The leader of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, has long tried to have it both ways. He has worked to gain the approval and support of Russian President Vladimir Putin while also trying to remain independent from Russia, and maintain ties with the Western world. It’s a delicate balancing act, and in the last few weeks, his ability to keep it up—and keep Putin at bay—seems to have all but disappeared, Lukashenko watchers and former diplomats tell The Daily Beast. “He seems to think he has the option to cozy up to the West again, like he did in 2014. That option...