Sorry, I just don't. It's too close, and the entire thing is going to turn on voter turnout. As I've said, Democrats are a lot better at the turnout game than are Republicans. It's no mystery why. People more likely to vote Democrat are less likely to have a sense of independence and individuality. They're followers, and as followers they're easily herded. Bush's best chance is rain ... bad weather in the battleground states. Bad weather will suppress the Democratic vote. And just why is that? Think about it. The Democratic party is the party of dependency; dependency on government....