The state at the center of Democrats’ uphill drive to keep the House just gave the party the strongest signal yet that their fortunes might be reversing. After a special election campaign centered on abortion rights, turnout surged Tuesday in Democratic Rep.-elect Pat Ryan’s home turf of Ulster County — the most heavily populated section of New York’s battleground 19th District. Ryan’s margins even narrowly exceeded President Joe Biden’s performance over Donald Trump’s in the county in 2020, giving him the cushion to withstand drop-off elsewhere in the district and win a bellwether race just months before the general election.