For education and discussion only. Not for commercial use. Today, the Commerce Department announced the January trade deficit was $68.5 billion, up from $65.1 billion in December. The consensus forecast for January was $66.6 billion. My forecast, published by Reuters, was $68 billion. The trade deficit exceeds 6 percent of GDP and is weighing down economic growth. Although petroleum plays a key role, it is certainly not the whole story. Since December 2001, the monthly trade deficit has increased by $42 billion. Petroleum accounts for less than half of that change. The Wal-Mart effect is broadly apparent. The January trade...