Free Republic

First things first. If there ever was an actual “insurrection”, a couple hundred patriots with axe handles would easily crush these out-of-shape DC riot goons dressed like teenage ninja turtles. Just sayin’… Although, to be fair, a few of the groups did look like they just raided the costume surplus from the last Batman movie.Today, the feds planted undercover operatives all over the DC mall in an effort to manipulate the crowd and set-up another “insurrection narrative.” However, in a hilarious turn of events no one showed up to play. As a result, there were more media looking for stories...

The Fed’s Little Beige Book. Keyword? SHORTAGES! Overall Economic Activity: The other sectors of the economy where growth slowed or activity declined were those constrained by supply disruptions and labor shortages, as opposed to softening demand. In particular, weakness in auto sales was widely ascribed to low inventories amidst the ongoing microchip shortage, and restrained home sales activity was attributed to low supply. Residential construction was up slightly, on balance, and nonresidential construction picked up modestly. Trends in loan volumes varied widely across Districts, ranging from down modestly to up strongly. Reports on the agriculture and energy sectors were mixed...

Stock investors might need to look out below. An esoteric financial markets indicator just registered a warning signal that historically augured in double-digit falls in the S&P 500, the index tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) exchange-traded fund. The metric in question is the Marshallian K., which measures the liquidity in the economy. Recently, the liquidity started contracting... “[T]he Marshallian K. now shows liquidity not only deteriorating but actually contracting,” states a recent report from financial company Leuthold Group. That conclusion might surprise many people who look at the Federal Reserve’s money-printing program, which started during the financial crisis...

Federal Reserve Bank of New York announced Friday that it was halting the publication of its GDP Nowcast model’s read of the economy due to pandemic-related uncertainties. “The uncertainty around the pandemic and the consequent volatility in the data have posed a number of challenges to the Nowcast model. Therefore, we have decided to suspend the publication of the Nowcast while we continue to work on methodological improvements to better address these challenges,” the New York Fed said in a statement posted to its website.

A few months ago US national debt exceeded $28 trillion. This number is certainly the one economists usually work with, but does this figure capture a long-term perspective?In March 2021, the Department of the Treasury published the 2020 Financial Report of the United States Government. In the initial message, Secretary Janet L. Yellen writes: “This Financial Report discusses not only current financial results but also important, long-term trends affecting our critical social insurance programs and fiscal health.” The report not only discloses the current debt level, but also projects the cost of the government’s future obligations to its citizens. It...

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Friday that inflation has risen enough to warrant a reduction in the central bank’s support for the recovering economy, potentially by the end of the year. In a Friday virtual speech, Powell said that the rate of price increases had achieved the “substantial further progress” necessary for the Fed to begin reducing its $120 billion in monthly bond purchases, and he expects the labor market to strengthen to that point as well soon. “At the FOMC's recent July meeting, I was of the view, as were most participants, that if the economy evolved broadly...

The KC Fed Jackson Hole conference is a US policy makers’ Davos, an uber-elite US location. You would think that the KC Fed would hold their conference in Kansas City or Omaha, Nebraska as a show of support for the working men and women. But nooooo. They have to hold it where Liz Cheney (GOPe, WYO) lives. And other elites have expensive vacation homes. (Bloomberg) — When U.S. Federal Reserve officials head to their annual mountain retreat next week to talk economic inequality, they’ll be sitting in the country’s wealthiest county. Jackson Hole, a rural community near the majestic Grand...

The purchasing power of the US Dollar has been virtually erased since the creation of The Federal Reserve in 1913 when $1,000 in 1913 is now worth $36.36. And M2 Money Velocity (GDP/M2 Money) has crashed and burned to the lowest level in history. Inflation? Home price growth YoY is the highest in history. And CPI growth YoY is the highest since the Financial Crisis and July 2008. The Fed is predicted to ease its foot off the printing press in the latter half of 2022. Share this:

U.S. consumer sentiment fell in early August to the lowest level in nearly a decade as Americans grew more concerned about the economy’s prospects, inflation and the recent surge in coronavirus cases. Consumer sentiment in U.S. plunges on concerns about virus, economic prospects “Consumers have correctly reasoned that the economy’s performance will be diminished over the next several months, but the extraordinary surge in negative economic assessments also reflects an emotional response, mainly from dashed hopes that the pandemic would soon end,” Richard Curtin, director of the survey, said in the report. The expectations gauge plummeted almost 14 points to...

Today’s import and export numbers for the USA show a disturbing trend. US export prices rose +17.2% YoY in July. That is the third consecutive month of +16.9% and above export prices growth. That begs the question: Is The Federal Reserve exporting inflation to US trading partners through its financial repression? The Wall Street Journal has a nice opinion piece entitled “You’re Already Paying for That $4.5 Trillion (Taxes haven’t gone up yet, but inflation and lost productivity amount to financial repression). The Financial Repressors, Yellen and Powell.

My new t-shirt and hat I just ordered! I don't usually sport attire with political messaging, but I want to advocate for a cause that I'm passionate about.

There are riots in France as their government mandates vaccine passes and mandate vaccination …. as the Covid Delta Variant case skyrocket. Covid vaccination protests are occurring in Italy, Britain and Greece as well. Threats of a resurgence of economic lockdowns are being tossed about. So, where does the US economy sit as the likelihood of another round of economic-crippling shutdowns is discussed in Washington DC? The Q2 GDP numbers will be out on Thursday, July 29th. But for Q1 2021, we saw real GDP PER CAPITA fall 0.052% YoY. While M2 Money Velocity sank -18.64% YoY. Headline inflation for...

Well, that was fast. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the Covid recession is over, lasting just two months. That is the shortest recession in US history. But read the fine print: “The Covid-19 recession ended in April 2020, the National Bureau of Economic Research said Monday.” Like the Case-Shiller house price index, this measure of recession is lagged. So, it tells us good news … from April 2020 PRIOR to President Biden and the Pelosi/Schumer “Stimulypto” Congress. So, if there is a link between economic recessions and Federal Reserve monetary policy, why is The Fed continuing...

Powell will say in his required semiannual testimony before Congress on Wednesday that the central bank can wait before it starts to ease its bond purchases despite surging inflation readings, according to remarks released before his testimony. In his prepared statement, Powell said he still expects inflation to moderate.

Employees at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis have until the end of August to get vaccinated against COVID-19 if they want to keep their job, Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari announced Wednesday. There will be exceptions for workers with medical conditions or religious beliefs barring the shot, he noted. But otherwise, this is the new normal — at least at the Minneapolis Fed. “Future hires will be subject to this policy,” Kashkari wrote. There’s something lost with fully remote work, he said. “Simply put, while we will enjoy more flexibility in where we work going forward, we are not...

Typically, banks make money by taking deposits at low rates and lending to borrowers at higher rates (car loans, residential mortgages, business loans, etc.), earning a spread. And bank deposits are usually less than the loans that they extended. Until April 2020. Nothing has been the same since Covid. This is really a unique time, since during the last recessions (2001 and The Great Recession) bank credit exceeded bank deposits. Banks can turn to The Federal Reserve at times like these. The Fed’s reverse repo program lets eligible firms, like banks and money-market mutual-funds, park large amounts of cash overnight...

US Inflation is almost as hot as in Russia, but the Fed is still blowing it off. Consumer price inflation in Russia is red-hot, having jumped 6.0% in May compared to a year ago, 2 percentage points above the Bank of Russia’s target of 4.0%. Polls in Russia show that food inflation is a top concern, currently running at 7.4%.But inflation in the US isn’t lagging far behind: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped 5.0% in May. Yet the central banks are on opposite tracks in their approach to inflation. Federal Reserve governors keep jabbering about this red-hot inflation being...

How bad did the Covid epidemic hit the USA? Bad enough that like humpty dumpty, all the king’s soldiers and all the king’s men couldn’t put the US economy back together again. According to a research effort to track economic stimulus efforts, we see that low wages workers suffered a 24.4% loss in employment since January 1, 2020 while high wage workers against 2.1% in employment. Despite the CARES Act and three rounds of stimulus payments. What industries suffered the most? Leisure and hospitality at -20.7% since January 1, 2020. And this was just economic stimulus from The Federal government....

Yet another overpriced 'starter-home' in the city I grew up in that recently sold at nearly 20% over the asking price... 830k for 1.8k sf. The house last sold for 300k in 2008. What's particularly sad is that Melrose was once a blue-collar middle class city in which the children of residents eagerly wished to remain. Prices have been on a tear since 2012, but they, like those everywhere else, have been accelerating rapidly since the plandemic. I would like to especially thank our clueless, arrogant, obnoxious elites at the Federal Reserve (yes, you JPow), the arrogant, entrenched executives at...

With The Federal Reserve’s prodigious asset purchases and rate suppression (not to mention Biden’s record spending), inflation is a concern. But now there is another problem on the horizon … deflation. If we look at commercial and industrial lending at commercial banks divided by bank deposits, we see the ratio is the lowest since the 1970s. How about loan and leases at commercial banks divided by deposits? Also the lowest since the 1970s. Why is this possibly deflationary? Because commercial banks are the primary transmission mechanism for Fed policy, this bodes ill unless the economy roars back from government Covid...