Free Republic

Larry Sabato was just on one of the DC-area local stations, and just said something shocking - the reason it took forever to call Virginia, South Carolina, and North Carolina is that the exit polls had them for Kerry. For Kerry! Sabato also said that the exit polls also had at least two other states "wrong" — which is not to say they had the wrong winner, but that they had results that were immediately detected as out of whack

Exit polls may be systematically undercounting Bush votes,Fox News Channel Analyst Bill Kristol said Tuesday night.

Bill Crystal says that the exit polls are not reliable this election cycle. BIG SURPRISE! It's the first time this new system has been used.

The Milwaukee paper is publishing details of the exit polls, but not the vote figures. The details look good to me, but what do I know: =========== TUESDAY, Nov. 2, 2004, 4:22 p.m. More early exit poll results The second batch of statewide numbers are in, and the late afternoon results more or less reflect the mid-day results: The numbers show 53% of those who have voted are female, 47% male, a balance that is leveling out from earlier in the day (see items below). Those who said they are voting for the first time account for 9%, higher than...

From the corner, Kat, who is panicky? The exit polls reflect the dynamic that Republicans usually do better later in the day. The drift is in the right direction. Compare the early and late numbers: PA Kerry +2-4 was +20 earlier OH Kerry +1 -- was +4 MI Kerry +2 -- was +4 FL Kerry +1 -- was +3 NH Kerry +4 -- was +16 Hope this trend continues... Posted

WORD FROM OBI-WAN [11/02 05:54 PM] Word from Obi-Wan Kenobi, longtime GOP operative: What you're hearing about the unreliability of exit polls is accurate. They are focused on urban areas. The exit polls need to be conducted in person, and obviously the media, even with their combined resources, have to pick and choose which polling places to conduct those exit polls. They under-poll rural and suburban areas. They also do not count early and absentee votes, which traditionally benefit Republicans. In the 1990s, the CNN exit polls were considered so skewed and so bad that GOP campaign strategists regulary added...

A senior GOP strategist dismisses the exit polls out of hand. "I'm old-fashioned. We're going to have wait till votes are counted." Today's polls have Dems with a mere 1% party i.d. advantage - in 2000 the exit polls gave Dems a 4% advantage. He recalls that Elizabeth Dole was down 6 pts. in exit polling and won her race by 9 pts. The same polls with screwy head to head numbers are showing Bush with 40% of the Hispanic vote - up 5 over 2000.

NH Bush +7 ON DRUDGE!!!!! This was suppose to be in Kerry's column!!!!

Just a Note Kerry people are stressed, too. A guy at my office works the phones for the Kerry Northwest campaign (Washington, Oregon, etc.). Their people are freaking out over exit polls indicating Kerry tied or losing in Oregon. Plenty of pressure for everyone.

Polls Lt. Uhuru: “Captain?” Kirk: “Yes, Uhuru.” Uhuru: “We’re being hailed, sir. I think it’s another Old Media Agent” McCoy: “Not again!” Spock: “Captain, I advise immediate reprisals. Perhaps a photon torpedo strike on the Tiffany Network?” Kirk: “That’s OK, Spock, I have an idea. Uhuru!” Uhuru: “Yes, Captain?” Kirk: “Tell the media we voted … for Kerry. All of us, several times.” Spock: “Jim, that is illogical. We voted for the President, as you know.” Kirk: “Yes, Spock, but since they’re always lying to us, it just feels right to return the favor.” Chekov: “I am still wondering why...

Early Exit A squeaker! By Jack Shafer Updated Tuesday, Nov. 2, 2004, at 12:51 PM PT The first wave of exit-poll data reaching my desk comes from a variety of sources. In some states the sources disagree about the specific margin by which a candidate leads, but never about which candidate is out in front. Some of the confusion may stem from the mixing of morning exit-poll numbers with early afternoon numbers. With those provisos and the understanding that the early numbers are predictive of nothing without their accompanying computer model, here's what I've heard: Florida Kerry 50 Bush 49...

Mary Matalin: I said to her, "The blogosphere is going batty." Her quick response, "Batty? Lord have mercy. One exit; bad model. Look to history. Early exits are never right. also read Mellman in the Hill today. The bloggers need to do some lamaze, open a bottle of good red, get ready to party." Furthermore from an insider: "[T]he race isn’t going to be the kind of victory any of us hoped for; but equanimity is a good trait to have at times like this. Things looked worse four years ago, at this point. Look, I expect it’ll be close;...

EXIT POLLING, WILL BEGIN SOON .WHICH NETWORK WILL YOU RELY ONFOR TONIGHT'S GOOD NEWS.KERRY'S DEFEAT.

ANOTHER EXIT REMINDER [KJL] Bush Cheneyers reminding: First wave of exit polls are not reliable--they are raw numbers, not balanced. They don't include absentee and early votes. Example: First round of exit polling in '02 CO Senate race showed Strickland up ten percentage points over Allard.

this explains the skewed results.

There is a bogus batch of exit polling numbers, supposedly released by what used to be the VNS, showing Kerry winning several key states. Don't feel bad about being suckered. They fooled Drudge and aparrently K-LO at National Review. But they are absurd on the face. Republican sources say Pennsylvania is tied, these reports say Dems are leading by TWENTY points. They even list Michigan twice.

Ignore the exit polls... The raw numbers trickling out are just that...raw. Exit polling is heavily "scrubbed" at the end of the day to account for turnout in each precinct, to account for pre-existing demographic sensibilities (i.e. samples are re-jiggered for sex, race, income, etc). These raw numbers obviously cannot be scrubbed in this matter. This means that the MOE is so high for Bush and Kerry that they are basically useless. What's more...you don't know what kind of data out there is reliable or not -- it is all rumour and innuendo. I know you are all desperate for...

Case in point, from Drudge website: Exit poll mania spread through media and campaign circles Tuesday afternoon after first wave of morning data showed Kerry competitive in key states.... National Election Pool -- representing six major news organization -- shows Kerry in striking distance -- with small lead -- in Florida and Ohio, sources tell DRUDGE... But early sample was based on a 59- 41 women to men ratio... MORE...

Limbaugh reports that GOP operative tells him that they cannot confirm so-called exit polls. That GOP shows they are doing well in OH and NH, and others, and that they cannot confirm the alleged Kerry +1 in FL. Something stinks here -- because the Bush campaign does its own exit polls. So they should match up, and they are not matching.

Associated Press COLUMBUS, Ohio - Exit polling can be conducted within 100 feet of a polling place on Election Day, a federal judge ruled. U.S. District Judge Michael H. Watson's ruling on Monday night overturned an October directive by Ohio Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell to prohibit exit polling within 100 feet of precincts. Five television networks - ABC, CNN, CBS, Fox News and NBC - and The Associated Press had sued on Monday, seeking a temporary order to block Blackwell's directive that limited the exit-poll surveys, even though there had been no prior problems. "Polling activities such as these...