Free Republic

For many years, history professor Allan Lichtman's has gained fame predicting Presidential Elections through a Key Question model that has remained consistent since 1980. Lichtman has published his prediction methodology in a Wikipedia entry entitled, The Keys to The White House, which he claims has predicted the winner every time, with exception of his error predicting Al Gore's victory over Bush.  Before the 2016 Election, Lichtman predicted his model would have Trump win, but the devil in his model is how he interprets the facts plugged into the model.  I analyzed his analysis in a 2016 FR vanity: Professor...

For the last few days, the news has spread about history professor Allan Lichtman's prediction that Trump would win the election.  Trump retweeted it today and many FReepers have commented on the the original WaPo story.  Lichtman claims his model has accurately predicted the POTUS winner for 30 years.  Being curious how the professor came up with his conclusion, I searched and I found his methodology in a Wikipedia entry entitled, The Keys to The White House. Now when I listened to Professor Lichtman's analysis in a Washington Post video, it immediately raised some red flags about the guy's legitimacy...

My homeys at the Weekly Standard have published their election predictions, and they range from dire to calamitous. Meanwhile, I’m merrily skipping about Soxblog Manor (in a completely manly way, mind you) whistling a happy tune. I expect Tuesday to be an extremely successful day for the Republican Party.

As we conclude this amazing election campaign, we have just one question for our readers: When has an incumbent candidate ever won when he is tied with his challenger on election eve? The answer is never--at least in the age of polling that began in the 1930s. So George W. Bush needs to beat history, and the polls, to win the election tomorrow. It is possible that the vagaries of the Electoral College will enable Bush to eke out a victory, and it is also possible that the Republican Party's get out the vote effort will equal or exceed the...

You won't find a crystal ball in political scientist James E. Campbell's office at the University at Buffalo, but you will find a complicated formula he thinks works even better at predicting that President Bush will win a second term on Nov. 2. After months of tweaking numbers based on polls and economic indicators, Campbell's version of the crystal ball uses a model that has accurately predicted the popular vote all the way back to 1948. This year, Campbell says that, barring any major gaffes or an "October surprise," Bush will capture 53.8 percent of the popular vote - enough...

Apologies in advance if anyone's has grumbles about this vanity post. It seems with only a few days to go, some elections are shaping up with winners emerging and some are tightening up and will be difficult to determine. I know we all like to give our predictions, so let's make this the place. Give us your election predictions. I'm looking for insight on national races from those who live and vote in those areas they comment on. Overall national prediction would be interesting as well.