In 1973 an Arab embargo sent oil prices soaring, and a global recession followed. In 1979 the Iranian revolution provoked a second surge in oil prices, and another global recession. Are we now at risk of a third oil crisis? I wish I could say no, but I can't. Oil prices have risen about $10 per barrel since the situation in the Middle East began deteriorating. So even if they stay where they are, this represents a serious shock to the system — and there could be more to come. True, political analysts assure us that despite Iraq's decision to...