<p>Let's imagine that Hizbollah's stated policy of "mega-terrorism" bears fruit, and a second Pi Glilot attack succeeds. Alertness and sharpened contingency plans mean that the blast and oil-fed fires kill fewer Israelis than expected, and "only" 2,500 die. Two weeks later, Hamas' new strategic direction bears fruit and they manage chemical attacks at several points in and around Tel Aviv. A couple thousand people are hospitalized, a couple hundred die. The total for both attacks is now 3,000 dead and 6,000 injured, many severely.</p>