Free Republic

I did some deep examination of Ohio's estimated 2003 demographics and I have reached a startling conclusion. Based upon demographic changes alone, George W. Bush has gained an estimated 27,958 voters. John Kerry has gained an estimated 8,598 voters. Thus, George W. Bush has netted 19,360 thanks to census changes alone. This translates to an almost 11% increase in the differences between Bush and Gore in 2000.

1. Kerry is at some day spa today. Specifically, he is at the Inn and Spa at Loretto in Santa Fe, New Mexico. No public events. Jay's Interpretation: Dumb, dumb, dumb. I just find this mind-boggling. It seems pretty clear that Dubya is on the offense through most of the nation. It seems that the average of the polls shows him ahead. It seems that Dubya has found an effective line of attack... ...and Kerry is at a Day Spa? He's doing debate prep...how much more prep could he possibly need? Tomorrow is going to be a replay of Friday's...

Why Colorado on 9-21? This was the first time the GOP tried out its new 72-hour get-out-the-vote program. In the GOP primary, Peter Coors faced Bob Schaffer; in the Democratic primary, Ken Salazar faced Mike Miles. This was a competitive primary for both parties, and it was a primary for an open senate seat both parties coveted and thought (and continue to think) they can win. Both primary races were roughly competitive. Neither race was close. Salazar took 73% of the Democrat vote, Coors took 60%. Thus, we would expect both sides to participate equally enthusiastically.

We have heard a lot of bluster in the media about massive increases in voter registration. The Democrats have implied that they are getting tons and tons of new people registered. The GOP is implying the same. Well, there are data sets out there in the internet that can help us evaluate these claims. So far, I have collected registration data for New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota that will help us see who is developing an advantage in each state. Today we will look at Minnesota, and there it seems to be Advantage Dubya.

Part of my blog is covering where, specifically, the candidates are heading...and what we can infer from this about the state of the election. Dubya will be in Denver, CO tomorrow. Jay's Interpretation: This looks like a play for the voters in Colorado's suburbs in Adams, Arapache and Jefferson counties. These are a part of CO 7. The district went for Gore in 2000 by a scant 1,900 votes. The CD presently has a new Republican congressman (Bob Beauprez...remember he won in a run-off in 2002), so there are votes to be had for the President. This is a sign...

Kerry spent today in Elyria, Ohio. Elyria is in the 9th District of Ohio, in the northern corridor along I-90/I-80. It is in the "rust-belt" portion of the state -- about 2/3rds of the way between Toledo and Cleveland. Gore won this district by 13% in 2000. The congresswoman, Marcy Kaptur, has made her name in DC as a protectionist. Kerry's trip is bound to be covered in the Cleveland area as well, which Gore won by double digits in 2000. Jay's Interpretation: Kerry might be playing to his base here. Are there problems with his status in the northern...

A lot of mystery is surrounding the polls for the last few days. Some of them show a big bump (bounce?) for Kerry. Others show no change whatsoever. There is a pattern to the discrepancies, however. Whether this pattern explains why the polls have deviated in the last few days is a question I cannot answer. I believe it worth nothing this pattern however. Perhaps one of you has some expertise beyond my own and can comment. Let's look at the major polls from the last two weeks. Gallup Last Week: Bush +8; Gallup This Week: Tie CBS News /...

There is a link to a PDF Document. You'll note that it is on the third page at the top. This must be what CBS is hinting at in its press release. The differences between this document and the CBS forgeries are quantum. If this is what CBS is going to hang its hat on, then they are *really* sunk. What is worse? Coming clean when you are caught, or making a lame excuse?

The New York Times, as many of you know, has a 36 page document by Gerald A. Lechliter explaining why George W. Bush did not meet his expectations at the Air National Guard. Lechliter is also a key source for the Boston Globe story out today. The argument, as best I can tell, comes in two parts: 1. Geroge W. Bush was required to obtain a certain number of "points" to fulfill his guard duty. He failed to do this. 2. George W. Bush was required to regularly attend drills to fulfill his guard duty. He also failed to do...

This article is incredible in its dishonesty and distortion. In the pages of National Review Byron York, all the way back in February, demonstrated that Bush did his duty for the guard. He concluded that the case was closed. The Boston Globe has decided today that this is not the case, but in making this decision, they have completely distorted Dubya's guard record in a way that strikes me as being either unconscionably sloppy or unconscionably intentional. What follows is a point-by-point rebuttal of the key passages of the Globe's piece. My hat is off to the incomparable Byron York...

In February, when the White House made public hundreds of pages of President Bush's military records, White House officials repeatedly insisted that the records prove that Bush fulfilled his military commitment in the Texas Air National Guard during the Vietnam War. But Bush fell well short of meeting his military obligation, a Globe reexamination of the records shows: Twice during his Guard service -- first when he joined in May 1968, and again before he transferred out of his unit in mid-1973 to attend Harvard Business School -- Bush signed documents pledging to meet training commitments or face a punitive...