Free Republic

Insight: Equities carry too much risk By David Rosenberg Published: September 23 2009 17:00 The banker J.P. Morgan was fond of saying: “I never buy at lows, I never sell at the highs, I play the middle 60 per cent.” Well, from our lens, we are well past that middle 60 per cent point of this bear market rally. At the lows in the equity market in March, the S&P 500 was de facto pricing in a 2.5 per cent decline in real gross domestic product and $50 of operating earnings for the year. Guess what? Far from being grossly...

"We're Going Right Back Into The Tank" Henry Blodget|Aug. 27, 2009, 11:47 AM|33 Heesun Wee, TechTicker: When retail expert and all-around economy watcher Howard Davidowitz appeared on Tech Ticker in February declaring the worst was yet to come for the U.S. economy and that Americans' standard of living has changed permanently, our comment boards lit up. But surely with the latest rally off the March lows, bearish Davidowitz is more bullish, right? Not a chance. Look at your financial history books. Two of the biggest rallies of more than 40 percent occurred during the Great Depression, says Davidowitz of Davidowitz...

Merkel's inflationary fretting may wake the bears from hibernation It is lonely in the diminishing camp of bears, says Ambrose Evans-Pritchard. Published: 10:11PM BST 06 Jun 2009 Comments 36 | Comment on this article Those of us who still question whether the world has purged its toxins are reduced to the same tiny band of moaning Druids from early 2007, when we shook our heads in disbelief as the carry trade swept Iceland to fresh madness and bankers laughed off sub-prime rot at Bear Stearns. We learned then to thicken our skins with walnut juice, lie down in dark rooms,...

Downturn bottomed out, Trichet signals By Chris Giles and Daniel Pimlott in London and Ralph Atkins in Frankfurt Published: May 11 2009 14:35 | Last updated: May 11 2009 20:36 Jean-Claude Trichet signalled on Monday that the global downturn had bottomed out with some large economies already able to put the recession behind them and look forward to renewed growth. OECD composite leading indicatorsThe European Central Bank president’s comments on Monday in Basel, Switzerland, had added weight because he was speaking on behalf of the world’s leading central bankers, not just for the eurozone. His remarks came as the Organisation...

October 30, 2008 As World Markets Rally, A Fog Of War Envelops Trading AngrybearWhen the stock markets around the world raced down earlier this month, there was some sense to it. The credit and liquidity troubles were real. Corporate earnings became progressively troubled. Layoffs showed clear signs of accelerating. Housing values continued to fall and mortgage default rates got worse. To put a point on it, there were ample reasons for the markets to become undone and for panic to reign. Over the last two days, markets in Hong Kong and Japan are up almost 20%. In just two days.Only...