Free Republic

Obama-51%, McCain-43% (Traditional LV) Obama-52%, McCain-43% (Expanded LV)

Tonight I continue my monitoring of the two families of polls being produced this year by pollsters in order to provide our readers insight into how the presidential race is playing out based on two  different assumptions on turnout models.The tracking polls in the ‘traditional’ family use historic voting trends to weight things like party ID affiliation in their turnout models.  The ‘extended’ family of polls are based on the unproven assumption this year’s turnout will favor the Dems by 2-3 times the highest historic advantage ever seen in memory. Over the years there have been times when the Democrats...

Republican John McCain has a slight lead, one within the statistical margin of error, in Virginia over Democrat Barack Obama in the race for the White House, according to a new poll of likely voters. The poll, conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., was released Wednesday. It surveyed 625 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent. Among those surveyed, 47 percent said they support McCain, compared with 44 percent for Obama. One percent said they support another candidate, and 8 percent were undecided. Among voters in the Southside/Lynchburg region, which includes Henry...

Saturday, September 13 Race Poll Results Spread Nevada Rasmussen McCain 49, Obama 46 McCain +3 National Gallup Tracking McCain 47, Obama 45 McCain +2 National Rasmussen Tracking McCain 48, Obama 45 McCain +3 National Hotline/FD Tracking McCain 45, Obama 44 McCain +1 National Newsweek McCain 46, Obama 46 Tie South Dakota Rasmussen McCain 54, Obama 37 McCain +17 New Jersey Marist Obama 48, McCain 45 Obama +3

While troops deployed abroad might be giving more money to Barack Obama, a poll released today says that John McCain will get the vast majority of votes from members of the military and veterans. According to Gallup, McCain leads Obama 56 percent to 34 percent, with 11 percent expressing no opinion or picking someone else. Obama spoke to the Veterans of Foreign Wars today in Florida, a day after McCain addressed the gathering. Gallup said the poll is based on aggregated data from its daily tracking poll between Aug. 5 and Aug. 17, involving more than 11,000 registered voters, including...

Comments: Getting concerned as McCain has not led since May. Even the electoral college tally on Rasmussen has had Obama solidly ahead like a rock. McCain is underperforming Bush in almost all Republican and swing states, including CO, NV, NM, OH, WI, MT, IA, IN, GA, NC, VA, and so on. Despite an impressive anti-Obama ad barrage, McCain has still not managed to demonstrate a winning electoral college mosaic so far.

emocrat Frank Lautenberg, seeking a fifth term in the U.S. Senate, is in a virtual tie with Republican challenger Dick Zimmer in New Jersey, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey. Forty-five percent (45%) of likely voters in the predominantly Democratic state favor Lautenberg, while 44% are backing Zimmer, a former U.S. congressman who is running as a fiscal conservative. The survey was taken 24 hours after Lautenberg, capturing over 60% of the vote, easily defeated another congressman, Robert Andrews, in the state's Democratic primary. Andrews, 50, who was endorsed by most of the state's newspapers, had aggressively attacked...

Private RNC polling shows McCain lead By: Jonathan Martin April 9, 2008 06:45 PM EST Internal polling data, presented privately last week at the Republican National Committee’s state chair meeting and provided to Politico, shows John McCain with a solid lead over both his potential general election rivals. Powered by the same appeal to Democrats and independents that fueled his primary election success, McCain is leading Barack Obama 48 percent to 42 percent and Hillary Clinton 51 percent to 40 percent according to RNC polling done late last month. He’s moved ahead of the two Democrats by consolidating support among...

New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton is being hobbled in her race to overtake Illinois Sen. Barack Obama by persistent questions among voters about her honesty, according to polls. A new poll in North Carolina - which after the April 22 Pennsylvania primary, is the next big prize on the campaign trail - says a key element in Obama's success is that the state's voters value trust over experience. The survey for the Charlotte Observer/WCNC-TV reported that only 25 percent of voters gave high marks to Clinton for trustworthiness compared to 48 percent for Obama and 54 percent for Arizona...

He is rated higher for experience, fighting terrorism and Iraq. In head-to-head contests, the poll found, McCain leads Clinton by 6 percentage points (46% to 40%) and Obama by 2 points (44% to 42%). Neither lead is commanding given that the survey, conducted Feb. 21-25, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The survey showed that McCain's potential advantages extend even to domestic issues, where he is considered to be most vulnerable. Even though McCain has joked about his lack of expertise on economic issues, voters picked him over Obama, 42% to 34%, as being...

Fred Thompson remains the favourite United States presidential contender for Republican Party backers in the Tar Heel State, according to a poll by Public Policy Polling. 30 per cent of respondents in North Carolina would support the actor and former Tennessee senator in the 2008 primary. Former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani is second with 20 per cent, followed by former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney with 12 per cent, and Arizona senator John McCain with seven per cent. In the sample of Democratic Party supporters, former North Carolina senator John Edwards and New York senator Hillary Rodham Clinton are...

Last week, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Arizona Senator John McCain both gained support in the race for the GOP nomination. This week, the top four contenders all lost ground. But, through it all, Giuliani remains on top with a double digit lead.The latest Rasmussen Reports national poll shows Giuliani with 28%, thirteen points more than McCain’s total of 15%. Former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson remains undeclared but in third place with 12% support. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney remains slightly behind Thompson at 10%. The stability in the GOP competition stands in stark contrast to...

We heard some buzz about this last night, but this morning's front-page story in the Tennessean about the hometown boy's big win, also includes some interesting nuggets on how MA Gov. Mitt Romney was able to score his impressive second-place finish. Romney, very quietly, worked with some Volunteer state supporters to bring in some college students from Union University. The school, which, btw, is affiliated with the Southern Baptist Convention, is in Jackson, TN, in between Memphis and Nashville. Also note in the story, the efforts of Romney's Southern backers to cast him as the best candidate in the field...

McCain Tops Clinton in Quinnipiac Poll They both voted for the war in Iraq. Both have angered key wings of their own political parties and both seem to be overhyped "media darlings.” So, perhaps it’s no surprise that a Quinnipiac University poll has Senators John McCain (R-Ariz) and Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) in a statistical tie for the 2008 presidency with a large disclaimer – if the election were held today. In a head-to-head contest, McCain tops Clinton 44-40 percent, according to the poll. The telephone poll of 1,230 voters surveyed from Nov. 28 to Dec. 4, which had a margin...