Posted on 01/18/2016 11:31:53 PM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
Two weeks ago, I assumed that - as candidates such as Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, and John Kasich floundered - the GOP establishment would migrate to Marco Rubio and then Ted Cruz before coalescing around Donald Trump if and only if he emerged as the inevitable nominee.
I may be wrong. Simply put, I keep underestimating establishment distaste for Cruz. In conversations with establishment figures I respect - people who love this country and have nothing substantial to lose from either a Trump or Cruz presidency - I'm detecting a preference for Trump.
Erick Erickson has written that this preference is tactical. The way he figures it, "the Establishment thinking is that if Trump beats Cruz in Iowa, they can then beat Trump with Rubio, Bush, or Christie."
I'm sure that some strategists see it that way, but others are far less optimistic about anyone else's chances against Cruz or Trump, and are asking themselves which candidate would make a better nominee and, potentially, a better president.
Simply put, this latter group thinks Cruz is a phony. They echo David Brooks in the belief that he's a "nakedly ambitious" and "selfish Machiavellian." They roll their eyes at his anti-establishment assaults, detecting political opportunism where his supporters see principle. They're convinced that general-election voters would agree, and that if he somehow won the presidency he'd happily discard his constitutional-conservative stances to keep it.
What about Trump?
The establishment's anti-Cruz faction sees the real-estate mogul as more capable of bringing disaffected Democrats to the GOP, and thus potentially more capable of defeating Hillary Clinton. They've developed a grudging respect for his success, and a hope for what it augurs, since one does not remain a going concern at such stratospheric levels without an ability to adapt and compromise. Though they still think he'd lose to Clinton, they've stopped waiting for his campaign to fall apart, and they're noticing that he represents a classic constituency - Jacksonian America - that is in many ways perceived as less radical than Cruz's grassroots army.
Trump's recent public humiliation of Bill Clinton probably helped him more with establishment skeptics. The conventional wisdom was that the media would only amplify his vicious attacks against Republicans, and that personal attacks against the Clintons would backfire. Early in the race, many on the right even wondered aloud if Trump was a Clinton plant. But he's dominating the media environment so thoroughly that liberal outlets such as the Washington Post and Vox had little choice but to publish pieces explaining the nature and extent of the rape and sexual-assault allegations against the former president. Could he actually take on Hillary on equal terms?
To be clear, this growing preference for Trump is born of deep despair. The establishment doesn't want the race to come down to Trump and Cruz. They still vehemently disagree with Trump's immigration stances and think his proposed ban on all Muslims' entering the country is madness. They still think he's making the wrong kind of appeal to justifiably angry Americans, uninformed on key issues, and would govern to the left of many rival candidates. But when Trump says that Cruz "can't get along with anybody in Washington" and that "everybody hates Ted," he's echoing the very establishment against which he's campaigned so loudly. Influential voices such as Rush Limbaugh and Mark Levin are recognizing as much, and telling Trump to, in Levin's words, "cut the crap."
We're two weeks from the first votes, and - though hardly inevitable - a simultaneous, seismic defeat of both parties' establishments seems more possible than ever. But defeat won't force party insiders to walk away; it will only mean they have to pick new sides.
Trump has survived everything the establishment has thrown at him. Can he survive its support?
Yes. Trump is a big government guy.
You can “buy” people many ways, other than with money.
You poor thing.
You’ve been so many losing teams now.
Anyone who hasn’t see this, watch it. About a 3 minute video featuring Mr. Cruz himself.
Cruz trustworthy?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XfKwc5lpZZ0
David French’ most recent topic before this current one:
Republicans Have Overestimated the Conservatism of the Base
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3384723/posts
That is an excellent piece.
Thanks for linking.
“Establishment and MSM attempting to split conservative voters”
I think so. Trump us certainly making that easier for them of late.
They can do basic arithmetic and know Trump is going to win. So they are trying to get on board while they can.
Are you expecting people to be shocked that campaign material is scripted? LOL You’re not that wet behind the ears, are you?
Cruz is not a sure loser in November. Nor is Trump. That’s why they are at war with each other right now. Both are extremely viable. So is Rubio. Bush is easily defeatable, we now know. Carson could win, too, and I will go to Carson before I support any establishment candidate.
Trump, Cruz, Carson,
I despise the establishment. The Thad Cochran/Chris McDaniel betrayal was the final electoral straw. The funding bill the final congressional straw. The homosexual marriage decision the final judicial straw.
The establishment is the enemy and anyone losing sight of that too focused on personalities beyond their ability to win.
“Dont fall for this crap. The establishment is not for Trump.”
Well if the choice is Trump vs Cruz they GOPe prefer Trump.
Cruz has policies they despise especially his anti Crony Capitalist policies, Trump OTOH has always been pro Crony Capitalist, a lot of his company is built on Cronyism.
>> Dont fall for this crap. The establishment is not for Trump.
Agreed. The Establishment has reluctantly advanced Cruz ahead of Trump.
I disagree. Trump worries them, but they hate Cruz.
My pleasure.
Everybody should wise up ...Everytthing else being brought up against Cruz are strawmen arguments .This fight is about ethanol subsidies.
I'd rather hear a rattlesnake's whirr coming from about four feet behind me, than that kind of "respect" -- the kind they gave McPain.
I tend to agree with you .... the Sith Lords will line up behind Trump. Shiv in hand, of course, but they’ll line up behind him, to get rid of the hated, loathed-beyond-apoplexy Cruz.
Not sure which of the two they hate more, but the situation certainly sucks more for the GOP-e than us.
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