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Poll: Trump Leads, Clinton Under 50
http://morningconsult.com ^ | September 22, 2015 | Reid Wilson

Posted on 09/22/2015 6:34:44 AM PDT by NKP_Vet

A strong performance in last week’s Republican presidential debate has raised former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina’s public profile, but not nearly enough to cut into real estate mogul Donald Trump’s lead over the rest of the GOP field.

Trump takes 32 percent of the vote among self-identified Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, according to a new Morning Consult tracking poll — far ahead of retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson’s 12 percent and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush’s 11 percent.

Fiorina finishes in fourth position, at 6 percent, just ahead of Sens. Marco Rubio (Fla.) and Ted Cruz (Texas), who clock in with 5 percent each.


TOPICS: Breaking News; Constitution/Conservatism; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Arkansas; US: New York
KEYWORDS: 2016election; 2016polls; amnesty; arkansas; bencarson; bush; carson; cruz; election2016; fiorina; hillary2016; hillaryclinton; hitlery; newyork; poll; rubio; trump; trumppoll
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To: kabar
Then I took statistics many years ago. I learned that a random sampling of 880 members of any grouping would yeild the percentages of various subgroups. Randomly sample 880 jelly beans in a 300 million jelly bean jar and you will know how many are red, pink, blue etc. I guess things have changed since then (70s). I've forgotten why 880 is the magic number but I do remember it was 880.
61 posted on 09/22/2015 9:17:21 AM PDT by jpsb (Believe nothing until it has been officially denied)
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To: Buckeye McFrog

“Rubio is next up to bat.
I wish Dock Ellis were pitching”

It was before my time, but are you talking about the infamous Reds game. The “No offense, but I’m gonna hit every one of you (&*^%(#&*$^ers” game ... the game where he then proceeded to hit each of the first 4 Reds batters before being ejected ... that game :-)?

I would pay real money to see that first inning :-).


62 posted on 09/22/2015 9:21:32 AM PDT by edh (I need a better tagline)
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To: jpsb
I took a statistics course in graduate school and learned about how political polls are conducted. There can be randomness within groups, but the groups have to be representative of the total demographic.

If you are going to do a national poll, you don't do a random sample in downtown Chicago.

63 posted on 09/22/2015 9:23:38 AM PDT by kabar
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To: kabar

I’m sure you are right. People are not jelly beans and the USA is not a 300 million jelly bean jar. LOL, If all one had to do to figure out an election is randomly call 880 voters then everyone would be in the polling business. I am impressed by how accurate the polling business has become. Anyway thanks for correcting me on the random thing I really thought that was how it was done. But after giving it a little thought I can see you are correct.


64 posted on 09/22/2015 9:36:39 AM PDT by jpsb (Believe nothing until it has been officially denied)
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To: NKP_Vet
Is this an automated poll, press 1 for Trump etc or is this a live questioner? I read a study of the polls so far, said if a live person is asking, people reluctant to say Trump. If automated, they do. Said his true lead is 40%.
65 posted on 09/22/2015 9:39:24 AM PDT by TornadoAlley3 (Obama is everything Oklahoma is not.)
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain

That math stuff!


66 posted on 09/22/2015 9:50:25 AM PDT by Read Write Repeat (Not one convinced me they want the job yet)
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To: Travis T. OJustice

I don’t know anyone under 50 who has a landline.

Then again, the biggest portion of the US citizen population is in the older age bands.


67 posted on 09/22/2015 10:18:33 AM PDT by Read Write Repeat (Not one convinced me they want the job yet)
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To: tanknetter
Everybody loves supporting a winner, hates supporting a loser. Polls become self-fulfilling prophesies.

I think they'd get the same results if they asked: "Who do you think will win?" Like you say, people don't want to say their choice is an also-ran.

I think it would be interesting to ask:

1. Who is your choice for the GOP nominee?

2. Who do think actually would make the best president?

68 posted on 09/22/2015 10:20:37 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True Supporters of our Troops PRAY for their Victory!)
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To: kabar

“Samples are not done randomly in polling. They are carefully constructed to capture the demographics of the country, state, region, etc.”

That’s called stratified random sampling.


69 posted on 09/22/2015 10:20:46 AM PDT by riverdawg
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To: tanknetter

I haven’t supported the winner in the GOP primaries since 1984. Has not caused me any heartburn.....


70 posted on 09/22/2015 10:32:43 AM PDT by Eric Pode of Croydon (Call me a "Free Traitor" if it amuses you. It will only strengthen my resolve.)
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To: NKP_Vet

71 posted on 09/22/2015 10:40:41 AM PDT by dragnet2 (Diversion and evasion are tools of deceit)
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To: NKP_Vet
Let me help those who might not understand. No one else but Trump stands a chance with the majority of the American people.


72 posted on 09/22/2015 10:44:10 AM PDT by dragnet2 (Diversion and evasion are tools of deceit)
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To: Read Write Repeat

Haha, I know a guy who is 40 who only has a land line. He donated his cell phone to charity a year ago, and says he is happier without it, and will never get another one!


73 posted on 09/22/2015 10:53:23 AM PDT by Boardwalk
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To: NKP_Vet

If Hillary is not indicted, she is the next president. All of this will be old news. With illegal voting, union thug and teacher foot soldiers, and the mainstream media, she has a 10-point lead right out of the gate.


74 posted on 09/22/2015 10:58:44 AM PDT by doug from upland ( never trust DemocRATS with national security)
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To: NKP_Vet
Not as if that matters to her...
75 posted on 09/22/2015 11:07:58 AM PDT by Diana in Wisconsin (I don't have 'Hobbies.' I'm developing a robust Post-Apocalyptic skill set...)
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To: Boardwalk

My condolences to your friend. He must get a ton of telemarketing calls.


76 posted on 09/22/2015 11:12:19 AM PDT by Read Write Repeat (Not one convinced me they want the job yet)
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To: doug from upland
And Trump is the only one who can contend with that. No one else stands a chance, not Cruz, not Bush, not Walker...Whoop I mean Carson. None.
77 posted on 09/22/2015 11:13:43 AM PDT by dragnet2 (Diversion and evasion are tools of deceit)
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To: Boardwalk

Also, your friend is probably deciding the election. Be nice to him! :)


78 posted on 09/22/2015 11:13:46 AM PDT by Read Write Repeat (Not one convinced me they want the job yet)
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To: BRL

The GOP is getting worried. No matter what, they do not want Trump as the candidate.

Expect proposed changes to the selection of delegates soon. Just like I expect out right fraud again in the Iowa Caucuses.


79 posted on 09/22/2015 11:15:55 AM PDT by redgolum ("God is dead" -- Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" -- God.)
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To: kabar

BS right back at ya

was just stating my opinion that I have long held.

Some polling is honest and scientific, but when it comes to crunch time they almost all allow their personal opinion to dictate who they ask etc

The truth right now is that Trump is leading big time, the polls that show him slipping are manufactured.

But the scary part is that the masses just believe what they are told. They hear the results and take that in. and for the masses the results they hear become reality for them.

If you dont think that pollsters just make stuff up (we are talking political polling only) then you are very naive


80 posted on 09/22/2015 11:18:07 AM PDT by Chauncey Uppercrust (TRUMP/CRUZ 2016 OR BUST)
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