Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part VIII

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

To: green iguana

With much relief paid for by tax dollars, no doubt.

2,761 posted on 08/29/2005 9:31:48 AM PDT by Gondring (I'll give up my right to die when hell freezes over my dead body!)

Tyrell Willis fights his way through about 70 knot winds as he tries to make his way to the Louisiana Superdome

So, I wonder if the photographer who snapped the pictures of Tyrell offered him a ride.

2,762 posted on 08/29/2005 9:31:53 AM PDT by TheCornerOffice

From StratFor:

Hurricane Katrina: Crunch Time

Hurricane Katrina continues to rage over southern Louisiana. The storm already has left the primary oil and natural gas production regions and is assaulting the mainland itself.

First, the good news. An 11th hour burst of relatively dry air succeeded in taking (a touch of) the wind out of Katrina's sails. In technical terms, this means the storm has been downgraded to a Category 3 hurricane; however, as of 10 a.m. local time, 100 mile-per-hour winds are still hitting New Orleans.

Another small bit of good information is that the storm did shift course to the east in the early hours of Aug. 29 and is traveling due north. Though parts of New Orleans will still be in the "eyewall" -- the most dangerous part of the storm -- the city itself seems posed to just barely avoid a direct hit. As of 9:30 a.m. local time, Katrina's eye was even with New Orleans on an east-west axis

Very soon, the focus will shift from stunned awe at Mother Nature's raw power to the dreary and painstaking work of damage assessment and repair. The storm passed directly over the Mississippi River's mouth, raising the prospect that the main channel has shifted. Such a development would delay the reopening of the river until the channel could be resurveyed and likely dredged. Depending on the silting, that could take a few hours -- or a few weeks. Add in damage to critical energy infrastructure and initial damage estimates, before a single assessor has put foot on soggy Louisianan ground, are at a floor of $30 billion.

It is difficult to predict the damage -- and impossible to underestimate the significance -- of what the United States faces. The city of New Orleans, the Port of South Louisiana and Port Fourchon combined serve as the hub of trade and energy collection and distribution for the middle third of the country. All have been hit -- and hit badly. But, for a few hours, we will not know specifically how badly.

Which means that we are now in the realm of logistics, and if what few scattered reports out of New Orleans are correct, there will be few people available to do the work necessary to repair the damage.

The northwest quadrant of the hurricane is currently whipping waves south and southwest across Lake Pontchartrain. With storm surges expected to hit as high as 20 feet -- before the waves are taken into account -- the expectations are that water is already gushing across the northern levees protecting New Orleans from the Mississippi. Needless to say, no one is standing on said levees reporting live. The world will have to wait a couple of hours until winds drop back into the double digits before a few brave souls can venture out and assess how bad a shape the city is in -- particularly whether the levees held at all.

That remains the question. In addition to the humanitarian disaster -- there are scattered reports that several evacuation centers have sustained heavy damage -- there is at least one report of a barge breaking free of its moorings. Should it strike the levee in the current conditions, the rupture would put the viability of the city in doubt. At present, there is at least one report that one levee has been breached already, although it is not clear if the barge caused the breach.

Assuming that all were well in the world and that the New Orleans pump system were safe above water (it is not), operating at full capacity the city could drain itself in three weeks. A more likely figure is six months. If New Orleans is out of the equation, then repair efforts will need to be based from further inland at a slow pace and higher cost. The next few days will be a race against time to get everything in working order again. What is not clear at this point is whether there will even be a city from which to base the effort.

Send questions or comments on this article to analysis@stratfor.com.

2,763 posted on 08/29/2005 9:32:01 AM PDT by cll

And where are all the tornadoes they said would happen?

They still may be coming. Also with radar problems they had, some may have already happened and can only be ascertained by the damage, eyewitness reports, and video still coming in.

2,764 posted on 08/29/2005 9:32:03 AM PDT by Hillarys Gate Cult ("Of the four wars in my lifetime, none came about because the U.S. was too strong." - Ronald Reagan)

Looks like Mobile is flooded...Can't see the ground or roads.

2,765 posted on 08/29/2005 9:32:18 AM PDT by Abigail Adams

To: bobdsmith; spectre

Now they're saying alligators are posing
a threat.

2,766 posted on 08/29/2005 9:32:18 AM PDT by the Deejay (THE LADY DEEJAY)

To: eyespysomething

it's kind of neat they can identify it, isn't it? . I've just been worried about exposing her to too much of the "destructive" talk we had yesterday.

She knows who Bush is too. :)

2,767 posted on 08/29/2005 9:32:24 AM PDT by cgk (We'll have to deal w/ the networks. One way to do that is to drain the swamp they live in - Rumsfeld)

To: Abigail Adams

I had heard a couple of hours ago that pumps had failed already. I think that's accurate???

My understanding is that all of the pumps which require elextricity from he power grid failed when the city lost power. The largest pumping station has it's on power supply.

Curiously the electric company's command post which is apparently inside the Hyatt hotel has lost power so they are completely blind.

2,768 posted on 08/29/2005 9:32:28 AM PDT by Smogger

Thank you blam's son for the report. Good news, everyone stay safe.

2,769 posted on 08/29/2005 9:32:35 AM PDT by WestCoastGal (Thank you JR for pulling this limping team across the finish in 9th place)

A bit of humor was present on threads I-VII and there was no problems. But thread VIII actually became the joke. Big difference.

2,770 posted on 08/29/2005 9:32:48 AM PDT by spycatcher

To: carl in alaska

I agree...sounds like someone in what was it 1920, made about as stupid a decision as can be made....when he suggested it...all his associates...starting running around ... saying ... oh how smart... let's do it...

Some way this problem needs to be corrected. 'Cause they'll be another cane that will hit NO dead on.

2,771 posted on 08/29/2005 9:32:50 AM PDT by shield (The Greatest Scientific Discoveries of the Century Reveal God!!!! by Dr. H. Ross, Astrophysicist)

Check post 2738 for a list of warnings.

2,772 posted on 08/29/2005 9:32:55 AM PDT by dirtboy (Drool overflowed my buffer...)

To: Termite_Commander

What we're seeing pictures of is the shredded fabric roof/sealer. The steel roof under it isn't watertight (never was supposed to be) and is intact except for a few missing panels and inspection covers. The engineers on site are saying that this was all expected and they're not worried - and these are the guys UNDER that dome, so I figure they know what they're talking about.

2,773 posted on 08/29/2005 9:33:04 AM PDT by Spktyr (Overwhelmingly superior firepower and the willingness to use it is the only proven peace solution.)

I'm in NC. Early this morning, I filled all my gas cans, and cars. Guy on the other side of the pumps saw what I was doing, said "that's probably a good idea, what with the mess Bush has created in the war for oil".

I responded, very directly: "Whelp".

He smiled at me. Obviously, he had no idea what the term means.

2,774 posted on 08/29/2005 9:33:26 AM PDT by Alia

To: carl in alaska

I'm afraid the whole concept of building a major city below sea level is tragically flawed.

Or letting the water bodies build higher and higher above your city, as they have over time.

2,775 posted on 08/29/2005 9:33:30 AM PDT by Gondring (I'll give up my right to die when hell freezes over my dead body!)

Good to know your ok!...hope your family is as well....

2,776 posted on 08/29/2005 9:33:30 AM PDT by FeliciaCat (I like my money where I can see it...hanging in my closet.)

Was that the little black lady named Jackie? She was still praising the Lord anyway. What a sweetheart.

2,777 posted on 08/29/2005 9:33:36 AM PDT by Marysecretary (Thank you, Lord, for FOUR MORE YEARS!!!)

Is that Morpheus? Where are the agents?

I couldn't help myself...

2,778 posted on 08/29/2005 9:33:43 AM PDT by Frank_Discussion (May the wings of Liberty never lose a feather!)

FIRE ANTS

Fire ants will form a big ball of hundreds+ of them to float on water, hate to brush into that!

2,779 posted on 08/29/2005 9:33:59 AM PDT by eyespysomething (What disgusts me the most is how other GStar families have had their wounds ripped back open! FU CS)

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,167289,00.html

Excerpt:

Water was dripping in and people were being moved away from about five sections of seats.

General Manager Glenn Menard said he didn't know how serious the problem was. He said there was no way of getting someone up to the roof to examine it.

Outside, one of the 10-foot, concrete clock pylons set up around the Superdome blew over.

"The Superdome is not in any dangerous situation," Gov. Kathleen Blanco said.

Electrical power at the Superdome failed at 5:02 a.m., triggering groans from the crowd. Emergency generators kicked in, but the backup power runs only reduced lighting and cannot run the air conditioning.

About 370,000 customers in southeast Louisiana were estimated to be without power, said Chenel Lagarde, spokesman for Entergy Corp., the main energy power company in the region.

2,780 posted on 08/29/2005 9:34:09 AM PDT by Calpernia (Breederville.com)

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