Davis, Simon heartily disliked-Voter disenchantment has soared to unprecedented level, poll says

SF Chronicle ^ | 9-5-02 | Carla Marinucci

[Oldeconomybuyer]

The candidates of both major parties in the California governor's race are growing even more unpopular with voters as the campaign progresses, a new survey has found.

The Field Poll released today found that half the likely voters are holding their noses for both Democratic Gov. Gray Davis and his Republican challenger, Bill Simon.

[Oldeconomybuyer]

CHART 1:
   Field Poll
   A new poll suggests that if Richard Riordan had defeated Bill Simon in the 
GOP primary, Governor Gray Davis would be in serious trouble.
   Davis vs. Simon
   Davis: 38%
   Simon: 31%
.
   Davis vs. Riordan
   Riordan: 49%
   Davis: 34%
.
CHART 2:
   Field Poll / Race for governor
   -- Positive or negative votes for a candidate
   Among Davis voters, Davis support is more a vote:
   For Davis        56% 
   Against Simon    37% 
   No opinion        7%
.
CHART 3:
   Among Simon voters, Simon support is more a vote:
   For Simon        32% 
   Against Davis    63% 
   No opinion        5%
.
CHART 4:
   -- Preferences for governor if the Republican nominee were former Los 
Angeles mayor Richard Riordan instead of Bill Simon
   Among likely voters
   Riordan    49%
   Davis      34%
   Undecided  10%
   Other       7%
.
CHART 5:
   -- Preferences for governor if the Republican nominee were Calif. Secretary 
of State Bill Jones instead of Bill Simon
   Among likely voters
   Davis      37%
   Jones      36%
   Undecided  20%
   Other       7%
   Results based on a statewide telephone survey of 765 Californians 
considered likely to vote in the Nov. 2002 statewide election. It was 
conducted Aug. 23 to Sept. 3 by telephone in English and Spanish. The margin 
of error is 3.6 percentage points for the first two questions and 5.2 
percentage points for the second set of questions (about nominees).
   

Source: The Field Institute,    Chronicle Graphic

[Coop]

Davis, for example, has spent an estimated $16 million on ads

And for that he gets 38% in the polls! Bwahahahahahahahaha!

Simon still has time to improve his standing with voters, though time is indeed running out. Davis has no such luxury. He's well known, and he's incredibly disliked. These "voters" polled here will not be flocking to pull the lever for him. Simon just needs to be close in the polls to win.

Oh, wait! Despite all the whining, in spite of all the hysteria of his pending and overwhelming defeat, SIMON IS CLOSE IN THE POLLS. And it's a Field Poll at that. With margin of error factored in, this poll actually shows a dead heat. (Though I do believe Davis is leading, but not by much.) It should also be noted that the Field Poll was the only poll over the summer to show Davis leading, while 7-8 other polls showed Simon leading.

[Coop]

Simon is in even better shape in the polls than I expected.

His biggest problem, not surprisingly, is going to be convincing the Pubbies and conservatives - who have been played like a fiddle by Davis and his goons - that Simon can still definitely win this thing.

[frmrda]

Coop, the important thing here is the poll question about Riordan - he crushes Davis. The GOP voters out there could screw up a one-car funeral. Davis was (an may still be hopefully) ripe for the picking, but the GOP had to choose someone who can easily be painted as a "right-wing extremist" in a state that is overwhelmingly Democratic. Talk about snatching defeat from the jowls of victory.

I really do hope you can throw these words in my face in November, and say I told you so, but I doubt it. A win by Davis, no matter how small the margin, would prove the ineptitude of the GOP and its voters in CA, because they picked perhaps the only person in CA who could lose to Gray Davis.

[section9]

Simon is in even better shape in the polls than I expected.

His biggest problem, not surprisingly, is going to be convincing the Pubbies and conservatives - who have been played like a fiddle by Davis and his goons - that Simon can still definitely win this thing.

Okay, once again, here's hoping that I am forced to UPS you that sixpack on Election Night.

However, there is one thing that is hidden in that poll that is very disturbing to me, and in it lies a peril to Simon that I'm not sure he can escape. To wit:

-- The governor holds substantial leads -- 15 to 19 percentage points -- in two voter-rich areas, Los Angeles County and the Bay Area, a combined home to half of the state's registered voters. Davis holds a slight edge, 38-36 percent, over Simon in the Central Valley, but Simon has an 8 point lead in Southern California areas outside of Los Angeles.

If Simon is not winning in the Inland Empire, he has no chance of taking this contest.

I know, Davis is only two points up. But the fact is, to be contestable, Simon needs to be about five points up in the Valley, at least.

The ethnic lineup is lamentable. Why is Simon running so weak amongst Hispanics? The black vote I understand; those poor folks have been voting Rat so long that they've lost all political relevance. But the Hispanic vote? Come on. What is going on here is a direct result of a poor advertising campaign in the Hispanic press and Latino radio stations.

You can bet that Davis is doing ads. Big time.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

[Coop]

Coop, the important thing here is the poll question about Riordan - he crushes Davis. The GOP voters out there could screw up a one-car funeral.

Oh, please! I hope you don't for one second believe Riordan would fare any better than Simon. It's simply not believable. Had Riordan won the primary, Riordan would have been blasted with $16 mil worth of attack ads. And he wouldn't have had the GOP base to start with.

Davis was (and may still be hopefully) ripe for the picking

As this and about 15 other polls have shown, there's no "maybe" about it. Simon can defeat Davis. Despite the best efforts of those here at FR (and not the disruptors) telling us all how it can't be done.

[hchutch]

The thing is, Davis has proven himself to be capable of making rookie mistakes the way Simon has - and Davis has gone negative way too early. To me, the fact is that they can't stand Davis.

I think Simon can turn things around, and once he starts hitting back, he'll have a good shot. Maybe joint appearances with Riordan would help...

[frmrda]

Granted Riordan would have been hit w/ ads against him, but unlike Simon they would not have sticked. They would have dented him, but in all likliehood he would still have cruised to victory. The reason is that you can't paint a RINO like Riordan as an "extremist".

Ask yourself this questoin: Why in God's name do you think Davis spent all that money making sure Simon was his opponent. The only logical explanation is that he knew he couldn't beat Riordan.

Further, the fact that a good conservative like Simon is even anywhere near Davis in a place like CA underscores the fact as to how weak Davis is. But this race was blown a long time ago. I pray I'm wrong, but I have a bad feeling about this.

[Coop]

If Simon is not winning in the Inland Empire, he has no chance of taking this contest.

Keep in mind that this is a poll of extremely unenthusiastic voters. Simon still has a chance to inject enthusiasm in his supporters; Davis does not. Also factor in the Field Poll's, uh, interesting Davis lean during this election.

In short, I don't think this poll will be indicative of turnout - although Davis desperately hopes it is.

[Coop]

Granted Riordan would have been hit w/ ads against him, but unlike Simon they would not have sticked.

Oh, okay. Well then, it's settled.

[Coop]

I pray I'm wrong, but I have a bad feeling about this.

You have a bad feeling about every race in which the Pubbie isn't up by 20 points. How did you feel about the NJ Senate race two months ago? I can't recall how many arguments like this I had on NJ threads. Torricelli's and Davis' re-elect and approval numbers are quite similar. They stink.

[randita]

The "best" candidate is always the one that's not running. Remember when Dubya hadn't yet announced he was running? He was pulling down 60+% in all the polls, but when push came to shove, he barely eked out a victory. And no wonder--the media spent months telling us that only McCain (the candidate that wasn't running) could beat Gore. Bush was way too extreme, they said.

CA conservatives are knocking themselves out for Simon. I doubt they'd have lifted a finger for Riordan.

[heleny]

Riordan would have been hit w/ ads against him, but unlike Simon they would not have sticked.

In a hypothetical matchup of Davis vs. a noncandidate, the noncandidate always has the advantage of no negative ads or negative press against him because he was irrelevant.

Davis has spent $16 million against Simon, but Davis is only leading by a few points at most among the general population. Davis spent only $10 million against Riordan, and he lost by a wide margin to Simon in the primary. The negative ads would have easily hurt Riordan. Conservatives never liked him, and liberals will stick with Davis.

[frmrda]

The CA conservatives maybe would not have "lifted a finger" for Riordan, but they would have held their nose because they hate Davis. Further, those conservatives who sat it out would in all likliehood be outweighed by the "moderates" and Dems who would have chosen him over Davis.

[frmrda]

That's where you're wrong. I think the Pubbies will take back the Senate on the basis of several races that are too close to call - those being MN and SD(but only if Smith loses to Sununu - if Smith is the candidate the net change will be zero).

You can't compare this to the NJ Senate race - for all his corruption Davis hasn't had the specific sort of rebuke (or should I say "severe reprimand" - what is that - like your "permanent record"?) that the Torch got from the Senate.

Ask yourself this - do you think for one second that had the Johnny Chang thing not happened that Forrester would be anywhere within striking distance.

No, I'm not a doomsayer - I have the same feeling about this race as I did in Schundler/McGreevey - Right man, wrong place.

[frmrda]

The problem with your anaylsis is that CA has way more liberals than conservatives, which means you have to get a guy who will pull the RINO's and other "moderates" in large numbers. Simon is not that guy.

Yes, I think Simon will keep it close, which makes me even more angry because Riordan would have blown Davis out of the water. The fact that a conservative like Simon can keep it close in CA is proof of how weak Davis is.

[Coop]

You can't compare this to the NJ Senate race

Of course I can. Similar recent voting demographics, similar lousy re-elect numbers for the incumbents. It's quite simple.

Ask yourself this - do you think for one second that had the Johnny Chang thing not happened that Forrester would be anywhere within striking distance.

If you're talking about the Ethics reprimand, of course Forrester would STILL be within striking distance. Before Torch was reprimanded, Forrester was within six points as I recall.

If you're talking about Chang in general, you're now creating a vacuum. You're saying "Pretend Torch isn't corrupt." Then yes, he would outperform the Pubbie. But then I wouldn't have been having all those arguments with everyone telling them why Torch could indeed lose. Just like if Gray Davis weren't so darned corrupt and disliked, I wouldn't be having these arguments here about how Simon can indeed defeat Grayout.

[ladyinred]

I understand why those polled dislike Davis, but Simon? They can't possibly know enough about him to dislike him! They can only be defining him by the campaign smears from the Davis camp.

[Coop]

They can't possibly know enough about him to dislike him! They can only be defining him by the campaign smears from the Davis camp.

You're right, although Simon certainly has hurt himself with some campaign mis-steps. But that's why I say Simon can overcome these negative perceptions (at least enough to win the race), while Davis cannot. But Simon is running out of time.

[frmrda]

I see what you're saying but to me the Chang thing isn't in a vaccum. Here's why.

Torch has ALWAYS been thought of as corrupt (kind of like John Gotti being a "zipper salesman"), but that has not stopped him from being elected numerous times.

But the Chang thing was the first real thing the idiot voters of NJ could actually put their hands on, and say, "Hey, you know what, this guy took watches and gifts for favors - he's corrupt".

That's alot different than the speculation and general opinion that he was corrupt, because before Chang, there was nothing the average non-attentive voter could understand. The Chang thing made even the idiots understand.