You can't compare this to the NJ Senate race - for all his corruption Davis hasn't had the specific sort of rebuke (or should I say "severe reprimand" - what is that - like your "permanent record"?) that the Torch got from the Senate.
Ask yourself this - do you think for one second that had the Johnny Chang thing not happened that Forrester would be anywhere within striking distance.
No, I'm not a doomsayer - I have the same feeling about this race as I did in Schundler/McGreevey - Right man, wrong place.
Of course I can. Similar recent voting demographics, similar lousy re-elect numbers for the incumbents. It's quite simple.
Ask yourself this - do you think for one second that had the Johnny Chang thing not happened that Forrester would be anywhere within striking distance.
If you're talking about the Ethics reprimand, of course Forrester would STILL be within striking distance. Before Torch was reprimanded, Forrester was within six points as I recall.
If you're talking about Chang in general, you're now creating a vacuum. You're saying "Pretend Torch isn't corrupt." Then yes, he would outperform the Pubbie. But then I wouldn't have been having all those arguments with everyone telling them why Torch could indeed lose. Just like if Gray Davis weren't so darned corrupt and disliked, I wouldn't be having these arguments here about how Simon can indeed defeat Grayout.