Of course I can. Similar recent voting demographics, similar lousy re-elect numbers for the incumbents. It's quite simple.
Ask yourself this - do you think for one second that had the Johnny Chang thing not happened that Forrester would be anywhere within striking distance.
If you're talking about the Ethics reprimand, of course Forrester would STILL be within striking distance. Before Torch was reprimanded, Forrester was within six points as I recall.
If you're talking about Chang in general, you're now creating a vacuum. You're saying "Pretend Torch isn't corrupt." Then yes, he would outperform the Pubbie. But then I wouldn't have been having all those arguments with everyone telling them why Torch could indeed lose. Just like if Gray Davis weren't so darned corrupt and disliked, I wouldn't be having these arguments here about how Simon can indeed defeat Grayout.
Torch has ALWAYS been thought of as corrupt (kind of like John Gotti being a "zipper salesman"), but that has not stopped him from being elected numerous times.
But the Chang thing was the first real thing the idiot voters of NJ could actually put their hands on, and say, "Hey, you know what, this guy took watches and gifts for favors - he's corrupt".
That's alot different than the speculation and general opinion that he was corrupt, because before Chang, there was nothing the average non-attentive voter could understand. The Chang thing made even the idiots understand.