[heleny]

Riordan would have been hit w/ ads against him, but unlike Simon they would not have sticked.

In a hypothetical matchup of Davis vs. a noncandidate, the noncandidate always has the advantage of no negative ads or negative press against him because he was irrelevant.

Davis has spent $16 million against Simon, but Davis is only leading by a few points at most among the general population. Davis spent only $10 million against Riordan, and he lost by a wide margin to Simon in the primary. The negative ads would have easily hurt Riordan. Conservatives never liked him, and liberals will stick with Davis.

[frmrda]

The problem with your anaylsis is that CA has way more liberals than conservatives, which means you have to get a guy who will pull the RINO's and other "moderates" in large numbers. Simon is not that guy.

Yes, I think Simon will keep it close, which makes me even more angry because Riordan would have blown Davis out of the water. The fact that a conservative like Simon can keep it close in CA is proof of how weak Davis is.