Simon is in even better shape in the polls than I expected.His biggest problem, not surprisingly, is going to be convincing the Pubbies and conservatives - who have been played like a fiddle by Davis and his goons - that Simon can still definitely win this thing.
Okay, once again, here's hoping that I am forced to UPS you that sixpack on Election Night.
However, there is one thing that is hidden in that poll that is very disturbing to me, and in it lies a peril to Simon that I'm not sure he can escape. To wit:
-- The governor holds substantial leads -- 15 to 19 percentage points -- in two voter-rich areas, Los Angeles County and the Bay Area, a combined home to half of the state's registered voters. Davis holds a slight edge, 38-36 percent, over Simon in the Central Valley, but Simon has an 8 point lead in Southern California areas outside of Los Angeles.
If Simon is not winning in the Inland Empire, he has no chance of taking this contest.
I know, Davis is only two points up. But the fact is, to be contestable, Simon needs to be about five points up in the Valley, at least.
The ethnic lineup is lamentable. Why is Simon running so weak amongst Hispanics? The black vote I understand; those poor folks have been voting Rat so long that they've lost all political relevance. But the Hispanic vote? Come on. What is going on here is a direct result of a poor advertising campaign in the Hispanic press and Latino radio stations.
You can bet that Davis is doing ads. Big time.
Be Seeing You,
Chris