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Food Price Surge Is Unlikely to Revert
rabobank.com ^ | 3/1/21 | AGRI Commodities Market

Posted on 03/27/2021 5:00:10 AM PDT by Roman_War_Criminal

Agricultural commodity prices have surged almost 50% since mid-2020, causing concerns over food price inflation around the world and sometimes resulting in increased export taxes and quotas by producers at a time when importing countries want to import more. We can identify four major factors driving the surge across agri commodities that will remain active in 2021: 1) US dollar weakness: Rabobank forecasts the US dollar to remain soft through 2021 (US dollar index -7% lower since mid-2020), but no further weakness is expected. 2) Weather: La Niña could extend into the US spring planting season. 3) Global demand: Good global demand (either for animal feed or storage) to continue through 2021. 4) Speculation: Speculative appetite is likely to support prices through 2021.

Global Weather Weather woes were experienced in many key producing regions. The current Russian and US winter wheat crops saw a moisture deficit going into the winter and recent cold weather damage. Furthermore, drier-than-normal weather in southern Brazil and Argentina since mid-2020 continues to negatively affect the crops grown there: soybeans, corn, cotton, sugarcane, and coffee. This drier-than-normal weather in parts of South America and the US tends to correlate with La Niña. Some weather models forecast La Niña to continue for longer than originally expected, possibly affecting the northern hemisphere planting season.

Global Demand Import demand has been outstanding for many agri commodities, even though the total consumption for some of these commodities is negatively affected by Covid-19 (cotton, coffee, cocoa, and sugar).

(Excerpt) Read more at research.rabobank.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events; Russia
KEYWORDS: agribusiness; argentina; brazil; commodities; economy; endtimes; famine; food; foodassistance; foodstamps; foodstorage; fosterdependence; gardening; inflation; oodaloop; prepper; preppers; russia; shtf; starvation
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To: SisterK

We’re already buying knockoff brands because the big names are so expensive; less quality but less pain in the wallet. Yet they’ll still say there is no inflation; what a crock...

We’ve watched prices for homes, gasoline, and groceries go up - but there is no inflation /s


41 posted on 03/27/2021 9:38:52 AM PDT by kearnyirish2 (Affirmative action is economic warfare against white males (and therefore white families).)
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To: cuban leaf
building was finished just before the surge

Just finished this week Thursday with building in Talisay, Cebu, Philippines. Dropped over a Million pesos into the project. Building material prices increased a lot during the build.

I could turn it around and sell for a couple mil now, but with the inflation that would barely keep up with the money spent.

42 posted on 03/27/2021 9:40:35 AM PDT by ASA Vet (The first two boxes failed. Only one remains.)
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To: napscoordinator
The condo complex I'm in has ten plots for those wishing to garden. Each is only 10' x 30'. Just enough for me to raise 16 tomato plants every year. Last summer two of the ten weren't used.

This is a senior citizen condo complex, so it's understandable that many of the residents can't do the work needed.

I usually give neighbors tomatoes.

43 posted on 03/27/2021 9:48:23 AM PDT by ASA Vet (The first two boxes failed. Only one remains.)
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To: metmom
its unreasonable to think one can grow everything they need from their garden....it would take a huge amount of land plus much labor and knock on wood good luck to do it....

BUT most people in the US can have fresh lettuce March thur november, even if its just a couple of pots on their patio....

anything fresh is far more healthy than store bought..and better tasting...

the other thing you can grow even on your kitchen counter are herbs...dill,basil,chives,oregano..etc....you can then dry them or freeze them and enjoy them all year long....

spices/herb prices are thru the roof.

44 posted on 03/27/2021 9:52:57 AM PDT by cherry (we are the Remnant)
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To: Roman_War_Criminal
Don't forget this:

and this:

Yeah, the gold market is manipulated, but ir appears that sometimes they lose control. Hey, it's worth a shot. :-)

45 posted on 03/27/2021 9:57:47 AM PDT by Oatka
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To: Georgia Girl 2
husband right now is putting together a nearly6x12 hothouse....last one was killed off by heavy snow and ice...

I've got quite a few seeds started but its still cold here so most things will have a wait a week or two more....

I pulled out some tomatoes from my freezer from last year....made a wonderful from scratch tomato soup....

a garden is truly a blessing...

46 posted on 03/27/2021 9:58:17 AM PDT by cherry (we are the Remnant)
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To: metmom; Tilted Irish Kilt; All

“However, it will supplement what you can find at the grocery stores and if you do have a good crop, you can share or barter with others as well.”

Beau is adding two more raised beds for me this spring, bringing my total number of beds to 16. This spring will be my biggest food production exercise ever - and I’ve been at this for a very long time. ;)

When I was a ‘Mom’ I worked part time, but then managed our farm garden the rest of the time. I was able to supplement the food for three adults and three growing teen boys from that garden and orchard, and I only had a total of 1 acre of land! It can be done!

We are currently raising a beef steer, and Beau is heading out on two fishing trips this spring and he always brings back a good haul. (Walleye, Perch, Trout...)

Please remember to shop locally and support you local food growers, bakers, meat suppliers, orchards, small grocery stores, etc. We’re all in this together, which has become a cliche, but it truly IS ‘We The People’ vs. Mother Government more so now than ever:

https://www.localfarmmarkets.org/

And, as always, ALL are invited to our Weekly Garden Thread right here on Free Republic! We’d be happy to help you, whether you just want to grow a pot of herbs for your kitchen, or an acre of tomatoes. :)

https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3945686/posts


47 posted on 03/27/2021 10:00:39 AM PDT by Diana in Wisconsin (I don't have 'Hobbies.' I'm developing a robust post-Apocalyptic skill set. )
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To: cuban leaf

We just re-did the flooring in our Family Room. We needed 13 sheets of Birch plywood under-layment before the flooring went down.

$23 a sheet! Last year, they were $12. And we were LUCKY to find them!


48 posted on 03/27/2021 10:05:23 AM PDT by Diana in Wisconsin (I don't have 'Hobbies.' I'm developing a robust post-Apocalyptic skill set. )
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To: Basket_of_Deplorables; Roman_War_Criminal

“China has a massive food shortage this year.”

Worse than once in a hundred year flooding in China last year hit their best agricultural lands in Central China very hard - wiping out not only annual crops like rice, but killing perennial crops (orchards) as well.

Another epic agricultural disaster for China last year, was the African Swine Flu, which caused mass culling of their stock of pigs (their staple meat).

They also got hit with serious drought in the North (their wheat and oilseed producing region), and a less serious locust swarm in the South.

Altogether, it produced a national emergency condition for food supplies, extending into at least this year.


49 posted on 03/27/2021 10:20:22 AM PDT by BeauBo
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To: Georgia Girl 2

Yep. Got some starts going. This next week starts big time. The hydroponic system I built last year kept us in fresh lettuce, basil, cilantro and others through the winter. Put it in my garden tub with an LED grow light. Time to start transitioning to the garden.


50 posted on 03/27/2021 10:25:37 AM PDT by Mama Shawna
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To: cherry

Sage, thyme, and oregano are perennials up north.

Garlic is ridiculously easy to grow.

I like to grow cost effective foods, like scallions and snow peas.

They are expensive in the stores and take up very little garden space.


51 posted on 03/27/2021 10:37:06 AM PDT by metmom (...fixing our eyes on Jesus, the Author and Perfecter of our faith..)
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To: Roman_War_Criminal

Food isn’t the only thing to skyrocket. The cost of single-use canning lids has increased by a factor of 10, if you can find them at all!


52 posted on 03/27/2021 10:49:57 AM PDT by Ellendra (A single lie on our side does more damage than a thousand lies on their side.)
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To: metmom; All

Yes! Get your seeds now, if you haven’t already!

Look for techniques and/or tools that make it easier and test them. Some will work and some won’t, they tend to be situation-specific. But chances are, there is something that will help you.

Test different varieties to find the ones that do best in your garden. What grows best in a sheltered backyard in Oregon probably won’t do well in a windswept lot in Arizona, and vice-versa. Find the best match for you.

Learn to save seeds, so you don’t have to buy as many next year.

Learn to use and preserve what you grew, so it doesn’t go to waste.


I was sorting through seeds the other day and realized you can tell how stressed I was at the beginning of each year, just by looking at what I ordered. The years I ordered mostly obscure and/or high-value medicinal herbs, I was confident enough to risk that kind of investment. But last year and this one? Wheat, staple crops, long-keepers, and true potato seeds. Self-seeders like breadseed poppies. Perennials like sea kale. Greens for the chickens. Even fruit tree seeds from a dozen different species.

I’m seeing too many indicators. There are rough waters ahead.


53 posted on 03/27/2021 11:06:37 AM PDT by Ellendra (A single lie on our side does more damage than a thousand lies on their side.)
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To: Mama Shawna

You don’t have to go into great detail, but what does your hydroponic system consist of? I’ve been wanting to try this, too. Thanks! :)


54 posted on 03/27/2021 11:24:34 AM PDT by Diana in Wisconsin (I don't have 'Hobbies.' I'm developing a robust post-Apocalyptic skill set. )
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To: Ellendra

And getting jars and lids shipped is becoming a problem! Normally, I just order from Walmart, but all of a sudden, they’re not shipping some of the VERY standard supplies we all use - and you have to go to the store for pick-up.

If you CAN get supplies shipped, they’re charging upwards of $10 for a 12-case of jars with lids, bringing the cost to over $30 a case, or $2.50 per jar w/ring and lid.

Now that ‘The Black Death’ *Rolleyes* has passed, I’m getting back on the Thrift Store Circuit these days and the jars available second hand are in terrible shape. :(


55 posted on 03/27/2021 11:28:34 AM PDT by Diana in Wisconsin (I don't have 'Hobbies.' I'm developing a robust post-Apocalyptic skill set. )
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To: Roman_War_Criminal

56 posted on 03/27/2021 11:33:23 AM PDT by Diana in Wisconsin (I don't have 'Hobbies.' I'm developing a robust post-Apocalyptic skill set. )
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To: Ellendra

when we were in vegas for a vacation, , believe it or not I went over to the Walmart and scored some lids and rings. I’ve been checking all stores where ever I go.....


57 posted on 03/27/2021 11:45:48 AM PDT by cherry (we are the Remnant)
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To: Diana in Wisconsin

I’ve been adding a box of Tattler lids to every Amazon order. I also took a gamble and ordered some single-use lids that were off-brand or no-brand. I figure it’s at least worth testing to see if any of the obscure brands are the right quality.

Haven’t had a reason to use any yet, so it’ll be a while before they’re tested.


58 posted on 03/27/2021 11:47:18 AM PDT by Ellendra (A single lie on our side does more damage than a thousand lies on their side.)
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To: Ellendra

what I found is that if you want to plant late crops like lettuce, beets, carrots, etc, get your seeds NOW because the end of season supply of seeds was very very limited last year..


59 posted on 03/27/2021 11:47:26 AM PDT by cherry (we are the Remnant)
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To: cherry

Nice!!!

I’ve only seen lids in the stores here once in the last 12 months.


60 posted on 03/27/2021 11:48:32 AM PDT by Ellendra (A single lie on our side does more damage than a thousand lies on their side.)
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