Skip to comments.Donald Trump will Win the Jewish Vote
Posted on 10/16/2020 4:54:42 AM PDT by Kaslin
Editor's Note: This piece was co-authored by Bruce Abramson.
For decades, political scientists, pundits, pollsters, and politicians have puzzled: Why is the Jewish Vote so reliably Democratic? The question has been around so long that few even bother to ask whether its an accurate characterization. Spoiler alert: Its not.
Jews still favoring Democrats are overwhelmingly those who have abandoned Jewish voting priorities and now are politically indistinguishable from their non-Jewish neighbors. Meanwhile, voters whose Jewish identity defines their lives and behavior overwhelmingly favor President Trump and Republicans.
Two polls released this week provide insight and support into this distinctionand why, as we recently explained in depthonly the latter group can reasonably be characterized as a Jewish Vote.
Ami Magazinea national weekly serving Orthodox Jewspolled 1,000 Orthodox respondents in 22 states about the forthcoming election. 83 percent favored President Trump. Only 13 percent favored the Democrats Joe Biden. Responses about party registration, gun safety, and Israel all suggest their preference for the GOP is rational and robust.
The Israel-based global news station i24 polled Israelis. Fully 88% of respondents reported interest in the American election. When asked which candidate would be better for Israel, 63.3 percent named Trump; only 18.8 percent chose Biden. When asked about the status of US-Israel ties were Biden elected, more than half expect a decline; less than 6 percent envision possible improvement.
Granted, neither of these polls represents an attempt to capture the Jewish Vote as it has long been portrayed. Orthodox Jews, though growing rapidly, still remain a minority. The i24 poll didnt attempt to capture American voters other than incidentally (American citizens represent < 5 percent of Israels population). Nearly every discussion of the Jewish Vote, on the other hand, defines its population to include all American voters of Jewish extraction.
Set aside for a moment the important critique that these traditional analyses (as well as these new polls) systematically ignore the substantial population of first- and second- generation Jewish immigrants from Israel, MENA and the FSU, who seem resistant to both Democrats and establishment American Jewish leadership. Estimates of those cohorts range from 20 to 30 percent or more of America Jews (there is some overlap with the Orthodox).
Even if the traditional count were substantially comprehensive, its threshold criteria are misleading overbroad and underbroad in statistical and political terms. To be statistically meaningful or politically relevant, a characteristic must impact voting behavior. For example, there are almost 35 million Americans of Irish descent, but its been decades since presidential campaigns engaged in sustained Irish voter outreach. Thats because its long been difficult to distinguish anything sufficiently unique identifiably Irish - about their political behavior. Most vote precisely as their education, profession, income, and zip code alone would predict. The exceptions tend to be active, practicing Catholics who elevate concerns relevant to their faith. Campaigns indeed continue with Catholic voter outreach.
The use of the term Jewish interchangeably to mean both ethnicity (like Irish) and faith (like Catholic) obfuscates it, but the same phenomenon is true for Americas Jews. Its no longer controversial to acknowledge that Americas Jewish mainstream doesnt vote on Israel.
Nor would anyone suggest that Americas non-Orthodox prioritize the freedom to practice any faith - Judaism included - that misaligns with enlightened elite opinion. Those who consider it at all tend to do so as progressives, putting scare quotes around religious freedom, denouncing it as a euphemism for bigotry or an attempt to establish theocracy.
Starkly divergent world views and policy priorities necessarily point in different political directions. The American Left seethes with enmity towards President Trump and is thoroughly wedded to the Democrats. The vast majority of Jews who follow suit proudly confirm that they do so as progressives with universal concerns; not parochially not as part of a Jewish Vote. Even when they profess concern over antisemitism, its glaringly limited to those alleged by progressives to be malefactors. Meanwhile, Orthodox and traditional Jews are a unique, genuinely independent, identifiably Jewish swing vote. Largely Blue state dwellers, they struggle mightily with how to salvage any political relevance with Democrats. They see President Trump as a benefactor to the Jewish state, a boon to Jewish education, a protector of Jewish observance, and a genuine fighter against antisemitism of any kind. Concerned with Jewish survival, they vote accordingly.
The political class knows all this to be true. While the Republican Jewish Coalition has exploded as an active grassroots (and increasingly Orthodox) membership and outreach organization, its erstwhile counterpart, the National Jewish Democratic Council, ceased outreach and grassroots years ago and became the alter ego of a political operative. Today there are a number of similar professional messaging operations to maintain the fiction of a distinct Jewish Democrat constituency but focused almost entirely on crisis management around the growing normalization of antisemitism and anti-Israelism in the Democratic Party rather than on representing a unique grassroots constituency.
Why so many Jews continue to embrace progressivism in the face of this manifest hostility remains an excellent question for sociologists. And Biden will win the Progressive Vote handily. As for the Jewish Vote? By any reasonable standard, Donald Trump will win it in a landslide.
Yeah, Cuomo “rounding up the Jews” in NYC just doesn’t sit well with many.
religious jews, but not the secular radicals.
The Jewish vote could help us out a little in Ohio, Florida and even PA.
But they are 2 percent of the population I think, with a large number in NY.
I have seen in the past people blaming the Jewish vote for losing a state or even an election, way back.
That’s absurd. People want someone to blame.
The smallest group is the easiest to blame.
And much more unfortunately, anti Semitism is still around.
Catholics are going to decide this election.
I am one.
I pray we do the right thing like we did in 2016, except with much higher numbers.
We get clocked on the Hispanic Catholic vote. I’m praying that changes this time around.
Thanks. But nothing really news here. The jews who are Jewish in their faith vote accordingly, meaning in accordance with moral values. Rhis election its R and Most definitely not D. The so-called jews who have abandoned their faith heritage in all
Meaningful manner have mostly substituted the worldly religion of leftism ( progressivism or whatnot). These ( effectively former) Jews will vote D since the Ds now espouse that kind of stuff. Noting it is sane in Catholic and Protestant communities - the more faithful mostly vote R and those that have essentially abandoned their faith heritages have similarly largely adopted the worldly extreme leftist religion instead. And they tend to vote for it, too. The far leftist Catechism contains a whole lot of outright anti- Christian, anti- Jewish, anti- moral bull crap since Judeo- Christisn moral teachings are a core part of what communism/nazism/islamicism oppose or rebel against
Trump winning the Jewish vote is a heavy lift, but I do believe Trump will do better than the 31% Democracy Institute found. Last night’s NBC townhall was instructive on this issue even the question from the Jewish woman was a total softball.
Win the Jewish vote? Let’s not go overboard. After blacks, Jewish folks as a whole vote the highest percentage of their demographic for Dems at 73%.That rarely changes. Unfortunately, the Orthodox who are conservative, are a minority in that demographic. Best you can hope for is some Dem Jewish folks stay home on election day which is unlikely.
Wow great. So Trump will get 80%+ of the vote in a demographic group that comprises about 0.2% of the U.S. population. With that kind of success he might get 0.1% closer to Biden in New York and New Jersey.
I guess we will see.
Orthodox Jews are a tiny, tiny segment of American Jewish voters. They are also concentrated in NYC and NYS, where leftists (and especially non-Orthodox Jews) will drown out their votes.
He’ll do very well with the orthodox but will lose the Jewish vote, they just don’t get it.
I think it is Ben Shapiro who makes the point that “Most Jews aren’t Jews.”
It’s a comment on the difference between religious identify and ethnic identity. For most ethnic Jews, their religion is socialism.
Just as Most Catholics aren't Catholics.
Certainly the Pope is in that group.
Trump doesn’t have to win the Jewish vote. If he gets 25-30% of it, he wins easily.
On the other hand, there are many people who count themselves as Jews but rarely go to synagogue. These tend to be "progressive liberals" who are only nominally of the Jewish faith. Some of them probably couldn't find Israel on a map.
I think this is why the Jews overall have a reputation of voting Democrat.
I haven’t seen this in my own family.
They are adamantly Democrats and nothing - and I mean NOTHING is going to change their minds.
We don’t discuss politics b/c they become so leftist so quickly, it is so deeply ingrained.
I would settle for 20% of the black vote.
If by ‘Jews’ you mean religious Jews, then probably yes.
If by ‘Jews’ you mean ethnic Jews who have little or nothing to do Judaism, then no. They are, for the most part, hardcore Leftists.
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