Posted on 04/09/2016 7:25:13 PM PDT by BlackFemaleArmyColonel
Florida may prove crucial to Donald Trump’s presidential hopes if the Republican nomination race goes to a contested convention.
Under the state’s GOP rules, all of the 99 delegates Trump received when he won Florida’s March 15 primary must vote for him through the first three nominating ballots at a contested convention.
That makes Florida unique.
Thirty-one states and territories require Republican delegates to support the winner of a given primary or caucus only for the first ballot, according to the Republican National Committee. Seven require delegates to back the primary or caucus winner for the first two ballots. The remaining 19 don’t bind their delegates at all or let them make their own choice once the candidate they were tied to either withdraws from the race or releases them to vote for someone else.
That means Florida, the most important swing state in the November election, also could play a key role buttressing Trump at the July convention in Cleveland if he doesn’t secure the necessary 1,237 delegates before then, which seems increasingly likely.
It also means Florida’s 99 delegates initially will play no significant role at what could be the most tumultuous party convention in decades.
(Excerpt) Read more at stumpinfortrump.com ...
PING
Cruzer rebuttal in 5...4...3...2...1
Your on fire Captain ...Go Trump
I am not trying to flame but this is the way I understand what the article is saying.
Florida may help Trump because the 99 delegates have to keep voting for him for the first three ballots.
Am I understanding that correctly?
That’s true...
“keep voting for him for the first three ballots.”
They can’t switch to another candidate till the 4th round
I see you got your answer...but there are other states which must vote the same for the first and second ballot.
Maybe someone can list them...I am in FL and know the 3 is correct.
If that's true I would really like your feedback on this question. My premise is that about 99% of delegates are going to Cleveland with a preference. I can't believe there are that many that are undecided.
As an example we picked National Delegates in Iowa and I want to tell you what happened with one potential delegate. We passed this really strange rule. Every candidate to be a National delegate had to say, only between Trump and Cruz, who they would vote for on a potential SECOND ballot. Iowa HAS to vote the way Iowa voted even if candidates drop out on first ballot. So there were both Cruz and Trump supporters, getting along fine, and saying who they would vote for, and this weirdo gets up and says something like Cruz on first ballot, Trump on second ballot and Kasich on third as he is only guy who can win.
We had to vote for 3 and the bottom 11 would be eliminated so we could use electronic voting method. We turn in paper ballots and everyone around me, Trump and Cruz people, were mad at that guy. How dare he tell us Kasich. Only Cruz and Trump are eligible.
He had lowest vote count, either 2 or 3 votes, with 480 people there.
It was at that point I realize in this race we have all pretty much locked in to our candidate and if there is a second ballot, probably not too much bargaining will go on. Thoughts?
The trend in second and subsequent ballots will be in Cruz's favor.
If FL is static for 3, and perhaps a few other states are static for 2 (or more), all that does is delay things a bit. Thus, if Trump does not get 1237 on Ballot#1, neither Cruz nor Trump may get it on #2, #3, #4... until #n, and with the aforementioned trend, Cruz gets the nom.
That is assuming Rule40b is essentially kept (8 states, or 5 states in the 2012 version).
Still, for this voter, November vote goes to Trump if he gets 1236+, or Cruz, if he gets 1236+.
That’s interesting. What I was worrying about (as a Trump supporter) was not so much bargaining after the fact, but finding out at the convention that delegates from states Trump won were ready to switch to Cruz as soon as they were free to do so (depending on their state rules for first, second, third ballot, etc.).
The reason I was worried was because of stories about Cruz having a better delegate “ground game”, which I assume means being better at identifying delegate candidates in each precinct that will be loyal to Cruz when they are free to do so.
Here in PA, 54 of 71 delegates are completely unbound. When we vote April 26, apparently we won’t know which delegates support which candidates, unless our candidate’s team reaches out to instruct a, which has not happened yet. The Trump team should also be recruiting delegate candidates that favor Trump, and I don’t know whether or not it is happening. There may be people at the polling places with Trump signs offering to tell yo which 3 delegates we should choose. (And conceivably, they could be GOPe plants trying to lead me astray :-)
I am not one of the people that considers this cheating or stealing, but I do wish the party systems were more straight forward, so that if I vote for my candidate, I could be sure my vote counts toward my candidate, rather than subject to being intercepted by a more clever campaign operative.
Cruz is winning a lot of delegates that will vote Trump first ballot and Cruz second ballot. I posted a link a while ago that shows who each PA delegate has said who they will support. What was funny one guy said three different things to three different papers.
here is the link it is a week old though
http://triblive.com/news/allegheny/10229809-74/delegates-candidates-district
Here is one about Cruz courting delegates
http://triblive.com/news/adminpage/10238241-74/cruz-pennsylvania-donald
Last one gives the counts of each supporter but not the name of the delegate
https://www.facebook.com/stevedeace/posts/563799830466727
I guess I need to find out who the 9 candidates are for the 13th district, and figure out what they’re saying. I’ve voted in nine presidential primaries before (some were slam dunks for an incumbent) but I had no idea the delegates could vote against whoever won their district. I guess I just never paid that much attention. Shame on me.
As I said in a previous post, I’m not one of the people who thinks it’s cheating or stealing, or shenanigans if a candidate is more clever at gaming the system. If candidates wants to get the Republican nomination, and run as a Republican, they have to accept the GOP rules.
Having said that, I do wish voters knew how it really works (as I’m finding out), and revolted, either form a new party that was more accountable to voters, or ran without a party affiliation. Delegates should be bound to vote for the candidate that won the plurality in their district, or state if it’s a winner take all. If a candidate drops out, the delegates should be bound to the runner up. The business of multiple ballots and unbound delegates and insisting on a majority instead of a plurality just provides an opportunity for party elites to manipulate the system rather than bring accountable to the voters.
In the general election, the electoral college delegates are bound to the winner of the popular vote in the state, either winner take all (49 states and DC), or proportionally (two states).
GOP can do what they want, but I would bet that well over 90% of voters do not know how the primary process really works, and if they did, they would not like it.
The normal process is that primaries yield a clear winner as time goes on. Everything connected with delegates just becomes housekeeping.
We’re at crunch time for Trump. In 2012, when Romney looked like the winner but didn’t yet have enough committed delegates, he rolled up a number of primary wins of 65-70%. In 2008, McCain had it wrapped up in March. The fact that Trump supporters have a high proportion of absolute fanatics does not cover up the fact that he’s a weak candidate, at least in the primaries. He might have a style ideal for a general election though.
1237 is tougher for Trump not because he is a weak candidate - he’s obviously the strongest candidate by far.
It’s simply harder to get a majority with so many candidates in at the beginning and even near the end, a few candidates too stubborn to get out when they know they can’t win.
Why are they staying in? Because the GOP wanted one of their own who would do the K Street shuffle and influence peddling game. From the beginning Trump refused to take their money, so he is persona non grata. So the GOP went the anyone but Trump route, and props up losing candidates.
By this point, Trump should have earned “presumptive nominee” status and enjoyed some of the benefits of the party machine. By this point, other clear front runners were getting GOP paid for ads and endorsements, and runner ups were being subtly encouraged to concede, consolidate and rally around the “presumptive nominee” for the good of the party. Trump gets none of that, instead they fight him at every turn.
Trump is a very strong candidate indeed, and if he pulls off a win in spite of the GOPe’s best effort to stop him, it will be a testimony to his fortitude and a yuge victory of the grass roots voter over the corrupt party machine.
This is a list of where the PA delegates stand
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NfzyoWfwqjrYbc5Xqb9lyerxztNxLuZDzwPBarYZJFA/htmlview
Thank you!
Question: There are 18 districts and a total of 54 district delegates, so I assumed they would be divided evenly, so there would be 3 per district, as with many states, regardless of district population. Is that correct?
Also, the total number of candidates is 162, which would be exactly enough for 9 per district if spread evenly, so I was assuming that was how it worked. But apparently that is not correct.
According to the list, the number of candidates per district varies from as low as 3 to to as many as 15. Can that be right? It seems as though if the end result is 3 delegates per district, the candidates per district should also be evenly spread over the districts, i.e., 9 *18 =162.
If the list is correct, how can, say, the 14th district, which lists only 3 candidates, elect 3 from 3? It seems like that would give the voters no choice.
My district 13 lists only 7 which surprised me.
Sorry for all the questions.
Can I ask where that spreadsheet came from? I can’t tell from the url - it’s just a private google docs account. If it’s none of my business that’s fine.
I’m trying to learn about how the average Joe voter is supposed to find out about such things, and whether there are some cool resources I should know about.
Thanks
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.