Posted on 01/19/2016 12:59:41 PM PST by SeekAndFind
A Trump/Kasich two-man race for the nomination would, I think, trigger the End Times. And I’m an atheist. I’m not even supposed to believe in the End Times.
Are there any conservative voters left in this party?
Among Republican voters who say they’re definitely going to vote, Trump leads Kasich by … two points, 24/22. I know what the data nerds are going to say: “That’s an ARG poll and ARG has a C- rating for accuracy from FiveThirtyEight.” Fair enough. Discard it if you like but you can’t ignore the trend in New Hampshire. Go have a look at how Kasich’s numbers have developed lately in RCP’s poll average of the state. In November and December, he was polling steadily in single digits. Then, suddenly, none other than ARG pegged him at 13 percent in late December. Here’s how the polling has gone since then:
Trump, Rubio, Cruz, and Christie are all hovering at around the same level they were at in various polls before the ARG survey in December. The only one who’s moving is Kasich, who was at 7.0 percent in the RCP average on December 17th and has now nearly doubled his share to 13.3 percent. That’s good for second place in the state, as you can see, nearly two full points ahead of the Great Establishment Hope, Marco Rubio. In fact, this makes three polls in a row to have Kasich in second place, albeit tied in the previous two. Meanwhile, Rubio’s just 0.2 percent ahead of Cruz, who will surely catch a bounce in New Hampshire if he wins Iowa or finishes a strong second to Trump. (Chin up, Rubio fans. HuffPo’s poll tracker, which uses a different sample of surveys than RCP, still has him two points ahead of Kasich and Cruz.) The idea that Rubio’s going to surge late in NH as undecideds make up their minds isn’t far-fetched, especially if he beats expectations in Iowa. The idea that he’s going to do it while Kasich, a competitor in the “moderate” lane, is catching fire at the same time is … less plausible. If Trump and Cruz finish far ahead of the field in Iowa, it’s not out of the question that Rubio finishes fourth in New Hampshire behind the two of them and Kasich. He’ll solider on to Florida anyway, but if that happens I think he’s effectively done.
How’s Kasich doing it? Is it his standout debate performances, which have somehow managed to unite voters across the party spectrum in annoyance at him? Is it, as I half-joked above, the fact that there just aren’t many conservatives left in the party, creating room for both a fake conservative like Trump and a loud-and-proud moderate like Kasich in the same New Hampshire primary? I think the truth is more prosaic: Kasich is all-in on New Hampshire, is saturating the market with ads, and no one else is laying a glove on him. Trump and Cruz are killing each other, Cruz and Rubio are killing each other, Rubio and Christie are killing each other, and Bush … well, Bush isn’t really killing anyone but he’s trying to kill Trump and Rubio. And there’s John Kasich, without a scratch on him, racing into second and conceivably now within single digits of catching Trump for the lead. Rubio, Christie, and Bush have exactly three weeks to start blowing this guy up or he’s going to finish top three in the state and the race is quickly going to boil down to Ted Cruz, Donald Trump, and John Farking Kasich. Help us, Obi-Wan Cruz-nobi, you’re our only hope.
New Hampshire is a very liberal, establishment state. It is no wonder that the liberal establishment is doing so well there.
” establishment doe snot “
That’ll bring in the big bucks!
With this much Baloney, I would open a Deli.
OK , but will you stay at home and not vote in the election is Trump wins?
sorry just saw your reply.
You don’t know if you will stay at home if Trump wins.
Good grief!
And I am sick of all the electioneering!
Well now we know why Cruz went to NH for 5 days.
I won’t vote for Trump. He is a RINO. He is a RINO of the first order. There is no doubt.
Your choice, but I hope if , or he becomes the nominee you will be there at home having a tantrum because your guy did not get it and you helped to Clinton in power.
I’d love Cruz to get it and endorsements don’t affect me either way, but I sure as hell with not have a tantrum and stay at home if it is Trump.
I understand. I’m just not voting for any more RINOs.
Trump is a snake oil salesman. Trump is lying to everyone to get the vote. I’m not going to vote for that guy.
Fair enough I mam not here to convince anyone.
Cruz then Trump, but hell no to the others for me.
Not a good day..but Trump has brought this on himself. Now he is calling for higher ethanol subsidies. I may switch to Cruz but Cruz cannot win. Say hi to president hillary.
Not compared to the one you will have when you find out this is BS.
Give it a rest, it's Cruz or Trump, unless you prefer Hillary.
OutLIAR ARG is dubious. Rubio is 2nd in NH, about 14-15, Trump 28-30...
I bet you Donald Trump is thrilled.
If Kasich finishes second, then that means that Cruz, Bush, or Rubio can do no better than 3rd. With Christie in the mix, it is perfectly conceivable that Bush could finish 6th in New Hampshire. Coupled with a dismal showing in Iowa, there's nothing left but the tearful goodbyes.
Kasich is not a national threat.
Yes, because the Trump campaign is going to implode. It's already happened so many times -- Carly, Ben, Marco, probably others -- and we're all doomed, dooooooomed I tell you.
Did you know his father was a mailman? :-)
The whole campaign thing has turned into a slush fund for advisors and the media. We need reform. A short campaign season, restrictions on donations, and it should not be allowed to report exit polls or final tallies until all polls are closed coast to coast. All vote counting procedures subject to random unannounced checks by teams with agents from both parties.
“The Donald would have a complete melt down.”
Yes, because we all know that a man who has the self-discipline to build a billions of dollars empire twice does not have the self-discipline to avoid melt downs.
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