Posted on 01/19/2016 12:59:41 PM PST by SeekAndFind
A Trump/Kasich two-man race for the nomination would, I think, trigger the End Times. And I’m an atheist. I’m not even supposed to believe in the End Times.
Are there any conservative voters left in this party?
Among Republican voters who say they’re definitely going to vote, Trump leads Kasich by … two points, 24/22. I know what the data nerds are going to say: “That’s an ARG poll and ARG has a C- rating for accuracy from FiveThirtyEight.” Fair enough. Discard it if you like but you can’t ignore the trend in New Hampshire. Go have a look at how Kasich’s numbers have developed lately in RCP’s poll average of the state. In November and December, he was polling steadily in single digits. Then, suddenly, none other than ARG pegged him at 13 percent in late December. Here’s how the polling has gone since then:
Trump, Rubio, Cruz, and Christie are all hovering at around the same level they were at in various polls before the ARG survey in December. The only one who’s moving is Kasich, who was at 7.0 percent in the RCP average on December 17th and has now nearly doubled his share to 13.3 percent. That’s good for second place in the state, as you can see, nearly two full points ahead of the Great Establishment Hope, Marco Rubio. In fact, this makes three polls in a row to have Kasich in second place, albeit tied in the previous two. Meanwhile, Rubio’s just 0.2 percent ahead of Cruz, who will surely catch a bounce in New Hampshire if he wins Iowa or finishes a strong second to Trump. (Chin up, Rubio fans. HuffPo’s poll tracker, which uses a different sample of surveys than RCP, still has him two points ahead of Kasich and Cruz.) The idea that Rubio’s going to surge late in NH as undecideds make up their minds isn’t far-fetched, especially if he beats expectations in Iowa. The idea that he’s going to do it while Kasich, a competitor in the “moderate” lane, is catching fire at the same time is … less plausible. If Trump and Cruz finish far ahead of the field in Iowa, it’s not out of the question that Rubio finishes fourth in New Hampshire behind the two of them and Kasich. He’ll solider on to Florida anyway, but if that happens I think he’s effectively done.
How’s Kasich doing it? Is it his standout debate performances, which have somehow managed to unite voters across the party spectrum in annoyance at him? Is it, as I half-joked above, the fact that there just aren’t many conservatives left in the party, creating room for both a fake conservative like Trump and a loud-and-proud moderate like Kasich in the same New Hampshire primary? I think the truth is more prosaic: Kasich is all-in on New Hampshire, is saturating the market with ads, and no one else is laying a glove on him. Trump and Cruz are killing each other, Cruz and Rubio are killing each other, Rubio and Christie are killing each other, and Bush … well, Bush isn’t really killing anyone but he’s trying to kill Trump and Rubio. And there’s John Kasich, without a scratch on him, racing into second and conceivably now within single digits of catching Trump for the lead. Rubio, Christie, and Bush have exactly three weeks to start blowing this guy up or he’s going to finish top three in the state and the race is quickly going to boil down to Ted Cruz, Donald Trump, and John Farking Kasich. Help us, Obi-Wan Cruz-nobi, you’re our only hope.
Rubio voters looking for the “anti-Trump/anti-Cruz”.
Well even on here we have some dopes who seem to take great delight attacking either Cruz or Trump , thus letting the establishment in.
Maybe these two sets of dopes will wake the hell up and be happy we have two candidates who are not establishment and are leading.
Also NH , please. How many MA voters are voting in that too.
I pay no attention to the north east voters.
So you would be happy for the establishment to come in and win it?
If Trump wins... that is the establishment. He has done his deal with the GOPE. I hope Cruz wins... but so far its still a free country and I can take that position.
Huntsman got 17% there, and it was trumpeted as big news, but his poll numbers stayed 1% everywhere else, and he dropped out before the next state even voted.
“Maybe these two sets of dopes will wake the hell up and be happy we have two candidates who are not establishment and are leading.”
Actually there were three, Trump, Cruz and Carson.
It was great.
So long as the establishment doe snot win then I ma fine with Cruz or Trump, though it seems there are a couple on here who are secretly rooting for the establishment while trying to tell others they are conservatives..
Or. It could be one might have derangement syndrome.
WHY?
Isn’t that type that’s for Bernie and/or Rand? LOL
Ah yes I forgot the Carson voters on here attacking too.
It seems derangement has reached new levels with a couple on here and would rather see another establishment get the nomination than a non establishment,
Lets just say Trump did win, would you stay at home, but you would come out for an establishment figure?
Gushing Kasich is closing the gap with up swelling Rubio, surging Cruz, and billowing Christie! Word on the streets is that up rising Anyone But Trump is starting to roll due to the unparalleled ground game Anyone But Trump has deployed.
Trump is establishment. Why is that so difficult to understand?
Probably right.
OK he is then for you and let go along with that for argument sake , but would you vote for him or would you stay at home because Cruz did not get voted in?
How many MA and VT voters will be voting in in NH this year.
My guess quite a few thousand.
Meanwhile, Teddy Boy is losing to John Kasich anywhere, and in the first primary state, with only 10% support. How embarrassing!
I don’t know.
From the table in the article, it looks like he is picking up defectors from Rubio and Carson.
Trump is not my number two. He used to be the guy I wanted. You can go way back in my posts and see where I posted pictures etc when going to see him. He is not even number two now. Sorry.
For Bernie? I hope not.
Something’s gotta offset the mass deluge.
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