Posted on 12/15/2015 9:51:08 AM PST by Red Steel
[Full title] Trump Edges Cruz in Iowa; His Supporters Think Japanese Internment Was Good; Clinton Still Well Ahead of Sanders In State
PPP’s newest Iowa poll finds Donald Trump and Ted Cruz at the top of the heap with 28% and 25% respectively. Marco Rubio at 14% and Ben Carson at 10% are also in double digits with Jeb Bush at 7% the only other candidate who clears even 3%. Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina, and Mike Huckabee all hit that level with John Kasich and Rand Paul each getting 2%, Lindsey Graham and Rick Santorum each getting 1%, and Jim Gilmore and George Pataki both having literally no support.
Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Bush have all seen varying increases in their support in the six weeks since we last polled Iowa. Cruz obviously has the most momentum, picking up 11 points from his 14% standing in early November. Trump has gained 6 points, Rubio 4 points, and Bush 2 points.
As we’ve been finding across the country for the last month Carson has seen the most serious downward arc in his support, dropping 11 points from his previous 21% standing. Huckabee’s dropped 3 points and Fiorina by 2 points as well.
There are a lot of divisions between where Cruz and Trump’s support is coming from. Among voters whose biggest concern is having a candidate who’s conservative on the issues Cruz leads with 33% to 26% for Trump and 15% for Carson. But with voters whose biggest concern is being able to beat a Democrat in the general election, Trump wins out with 31% to 20% each for Cruz and Rubio. Cruz leads Trump 31/30 with men, but Trump more than makes up for that with a 26/17 lead among women. Cruz has a strong advantage with ‘very conservative’ voters at 37% to 25% for Trump and 14% for Carson but Trump leads based on his strength with moderates, with whom gets 42% to 14% each for Rubio and Bush.
It’s ironic that Trump leads with moderates, because the views of his supporters wouldn’t be considered moderate by most standards:
-78% support Trump’s call to bans Muslims from entering the United States, to only 13% who oppose it. Overall 54% of Republicans support him on that to 28% who are opposed. Supporters of Cruz (62/20) and Carson (54/25) also favor a Muslim ban while backers of Rubio (28/48) and Bush (28/49) are opposed.
-65% of Trump voters think thousands of Arabs in New Jersey cheered the collapse of the World Trade Center, to only 11% who don’t think that happened. Overall 43% of Republicans think that event occurred to 29% who don’t. Supporters of Carson (44/10) and Cruz (45/26) agree with Trump’s that it happened while those of Rubio (24/47) and Bush (12/62) say it didn’t.
-59% of Trump voters support a national database of Muslims, to 18% who are opposed. Republicans as a whole are evenly divided on that issue, 40/40. Carson supporters (42/38) join with Trump’s in wanting a Muslim database but those of Cruz (38/42), Rubio (32/48), and Bush (19/62) are all against it.
-45% of Trump voters want to shut down the mosques in the United States, to only 23% who are opposed to doing that. Overall just 27% of Republicans support that to 45% who are opposed though. Supporters of all the other major GOP candidates are opposed to shutting down mosques- it’s 32/48 with Carson backers, 25/44 with those of Cruz, 9/66 with Rubio voters, and 9/69 with Bush’s.
-Finally as long as we were at it we decided we’d ask people if they thought Japanese internment had been a good idea. Among Trump voters 48% say they support the use of internment during World War II, to only 21% who say they oppose it. Overall just 29% of Republicans support that to 39% opposed, and supporters of all the other candidates are against it- 29/33 with Cruz voters, 23/54 with Rubio’s, 12/48 with Carson’s, and 13/56 with Bush’s.
Trump’s positions aren’t hurting him for now but if he ever does falter Cruz is very well positioned to benefit. Besides his overall second place position Cruz is the most broadly popular of the candidates in Iowa, with a 68/20 favorability rating. He’s also the most frequent second choice of Iowa voters at 19% to 12% each for Carson and Rubio, and 11% for Trump. When you combine first and second choices Cruz leads with 44% to 39% for Trump, 26% for Rubio, and 22% for Carson. Cruz is specifically by far and away the second choice of Trump voters at 36% to 14% for Carson with no one else hitting double digits. Quick notes on some other hopefuls:
-Bush has the highest negatives of any of the candidates with 47% seeing him unfavorably to only 35% who have a positive view. He continues to particularly have a credibility issue on the right- with ‘very conservative’ voters his favorability is 24/61 and just 2% of voters within that group favor him for the nomination.
-What we’re continuing to find with Rubio right now is that he’s sort of in a holding pattern. When we polled Iowa last month he was in 4th place with a 60/20 favorability rating. Now thanks to the collapse of Carson he’s in 3rd place with a nearly identical 59/22 favorability. He’s not getting much momentum but he’s at least not falling apart either.
-Carson’s not just losing out on people saying he’s their first choice- he’s had a general decline in his image with GOP voters. Last month he had a +61 (74/13) favorability, that’s now dropped to +40 at 63/23. His combined first and second choice support has dropped from 40% down to 22%.
-John Kasich’s just really not making an impact. A plurality of GOP voters- 41%- don’t even have an opinion about him one way or the other. Among voters who do have one it’s quite negative with only 22% seeing him favorably to 37% with a negative view.
-Mike Huckabee on the other hand is very popular with the Republican base. 64% see him favorably to just 21% with a negative view, making him the most broadly liked hopeful other than Cruz. That goodwill just isn’t translating into support for the nomination for him though.
On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton continues to be the clear favorite in Iowa. She’s at 52% to 34% for Bernie Sanders and 7% for Martin O’Malley. Sanders leads 47/40 with younger voters, but that’s not enough to make up for Clinton holding a 64/20 advantage with seniors. She leads by pretty similar margins of 19 points with liberals at 56/37 and 22 points with moderates at 52/30. And she also has comparable leads with both women (21 points at 55/34) and men (15 points at 49/34). Clinton’s favorability rating is 73/19 while Sanders’ comes in at 65/23.
Full results here
Moreover, I think this will show that this was the top end of Cruz's support.
I have no evidence to support this, only intuition. But those who have followed my posts since June would know that, except for thinking the "1 per enters" would have dropped out by now, I've been pretty accurate.
I believe Iowa first picked Obama when it was supposed to be Hilary’s election though.
Thanks for another reality ignored:
Have you ever heard of the Black Dragon fraternity? It was a social group of Japanese ex-pats associated with the Japanese military.
What happened in the Philippines when the Japanese military invaded those islands greatly influenced what happened later in the USA. Members of Black Dragon, mainly shopkeepers and small businessmen, closed up their shops, changed into Japanese Army uniforms and took out their hidden rifles. Then they went about murdering their neighbors, conducting sabotage of infrastructure, and attacking the rear and flanks of the Philippine defenders. They facilitated the Japanese takeover of the Philippine Islands.
The US government, after the attack on Pearl Harbor, was left with a difficult decision. The seething resentment and anger of the general population within the 48 continental states was palpable. There existed Black Dragon fraternities within ethnic Japanese communities, but the government was more concerned with the reactions by the general population to any efforts made by Black Dragon members. The last thing the government wanted was a rampaging campaign of elimination against Asians.
Internment and theft of possessions was the least of it.
They weren’t imprisoned. They were told they couldn’t live in certain areas, and camps were for those who had no place else to go. They could leave the camps if they wanted, but they couldn’t go back to the prohibited zones (there’s a USSC case affirming that). Michelle Malkin wrote an interesting book on the issue of domestic Japanese and WWII. BTW, I have relatives who were in the camps.
Read my post again and then read Wiki again. Eleven million people had one or both parents born in Germany, the German equivalent of a Nisei. Fewer than 12,000 were interned compared to over 100,000 from a much smaller population.
In Asia the local immigrant Japanese were massively infiltrated by Japanese intelligence agents. This was so extreme that it was a universal experience among, for instance, prominent Philippine and American business and political leaders. Many had very efficient Japanese employees, drivers, and servants, nearly all of which turned out to be Japanese military or security officers.
I recall a bit out of a memoir by Enrique Zobel, one of the great tycoons of the country, whose family had a mansion on Manilas Bayfront. He recalls being touched that the Japanese servants would gather to stare out to sea, at the ships in the bay, thinking that they were pining for their homeland. It turns out they were monitoring shipping traffic and cargoes.
The barbed wire and the guards were just there to protect them, is that it?
Have you noticed, the more Hillary talks, the more her popularity and poll numbers go down? Obama is a community organizer and much better than Hillary at telling lies with a straight face.
Look, why not actually inform yourself?
This is correct.
Every single civilian memoir of the day (and I collect these memoirs of the Philippines in the war) mentions the ridiculous profusion of spies in the Philippines. The day the Japanese army walked in all these shopkeepers, photographers. businessmen, drivers, servants; the staff of Japanese firms and plantations, all turned out to be military or paramilitary operatives.
Every single one of the sources I have read, whether written by famous politicians or people who were children at the time, they all mention some or many variations of this.
I stand with Ronald Reagan on this. I don't stand with Donald Trump. And some (not all)--let's be honest and call a spade a spade here--of his racist supporters who give that 1942 big brother action by DEMOCRAPS FDR and Earl Warren a pass simply because they themselves probably just don't like Japanese or any Asians for that matter.
Did you have relatives in either camp? If so discuss it with
achilles2000, who had relatives in the internment camps.
“They weren’t imprisoned. They were told they couldn’t live in certain areas, and camps were for those who had no place else to go. They could leave the camps if they wanted, but they couldn’t go back to the prohibited zones (there’s a USSC case affirming that). Michelle Malkin wrote an interesting book on the issue of domestic Japanese and WWII. BTW, I have relatives who were in the camps.”
My grandfather was born in Italy.
During WWII, the government was going to establish internment camps fot Italians like they did for Japanese. Hard to suffer.However, my grandfather was an American to his core and was gladly ready to go. How can the good be separated from the bad?
After 9/11, a Mexican relative, dual citizen consistently was stopped and searched on every flight because he looks Middle Eastern. He said he was happy to suffer it for his country. How can the good be separated from the bad?
Americans need to stand tough. We have no way to separate out the good from the bad and America is under attack. Let us all be willing to suffer for our country.
They are free to try. But there will be a severe penalty to pay if they try confiscation or internment.
If the Japanese-Americans had guns and the guts to use them, things would have been different. The Jews in 1940 have the same lament.
Not me or mine.
No more running. I aim to misbehave.
One of my corporate mentors and friends was an Italian American. His Dad was a US Army vet in WWI.
They lived in San Francisco when Pearl Harbor was attacked, and they could see the ocean from west facing windows.
Those windows were fitted with black out curtains that had to be closed before sunset and until after sunrise. The family was supposedly restricted to being in their home or at least on the property for a year or so.
My friend later joined the Marine Corp and was an officer and served in Korea. He felt no remorse and said some Italians were monitored by those who were concerned that they might hurt America.
Wow..just wow. I see some are confusing German POWS with internment.
The declaration of war by congress give the president near dictatorial powers. And FDR used it.
As for German POWS, they were used as workers for largely ag businesses. And they were paid in SCRIPT. Many got here near the end of WW2 and were kept past 1945..some as long as late 1946. Then, many were sent to England, and then to France where they were really treated badly.
A quite a few German POWs wanted to stay..now wait for it...THEY HAD TO GO BACK!!!! And apply LEGALLY to come back and recieve citizenship. Now aint that a quaint idea? Where have I heard that now lately?
I personally knew one who did this. He fought in N Africa and managed to get back to the USA and became a citizen. ONE fine person to know, took pride in his work and assimilated with the community.
Yeah they were.
They were told they couldn't live in certain areas, and camps were for those who had no place else to go. They could leave the camps if they wanted, but they couldn't go back to the prohibited zones (there's a USSC case affirming that).
There's a bit more to it than that. No, they couldn't live in the exclusion zones designated by the Army, and coincidentally the entire West Coast. But a second order, issued by the Army in March 1942, said that they were forbidden from leaving the exclusion zones as well. So they had no where to go but the camps. Once in they were guarded by troops, refused permission to leave, and in some isolated incidents were shot when trying to go outside the barbed wire. But I'm sure they were such nice places that the internees didn't want to go anywhere else.
Absolutely agree with your second point. There is a list of points that justified internment. One was the physical protection of Japanese residents; there was bound to be retribution by American's whose young family members had been and continued to be slaughtered by Japan's armed forces.
However, IMO, the bad was material. It seems outrageous to me that there was no effort at the time to minimize any economic losses experienced by interned citizens. It would have been easy for the fed gov to have issued interest-bearing I.O.U.'s for the fair market value of houses, abandoned possessions, etc.
When I was in college, I was on the debate team for U of Chicago, and we debated Chris Coons and his partner from Amherst.
It was a preassigned topic, “You can’t have it both ways” describing the U.S. as being hypocritical about human rights because of the internment camps.
My partner and I had to defend the camps, or at least make distinctions that would show the operations of them were not hypocritical.
Two primary points were made.
One, people were released from our camps, the purpose of the camps really WAS to protect the greater population from some of those interred.
Two, we cannot replay history. We don’t know what would have happened if a single ethnic Japanese decided to place a bomb in the San Diego airport. For all anybody knows, the locals would start having massive lunch parties that would make Jim Crow look like a Sunday School picnic.
Further, we made the point that even if the judgment about the character of Japanese-Americans was wrong or exagerrated, the people in charge had to make a judgment based on their best judgment of the situation as they knew it. Iftheir judgment was mistaken due to bad informastion or false knowledge, it does not necessarily reflect on them.
My debate partner and I won the debate by one point, and we made sure that the Amherst team did NOT make the finals.
It looks right to me because it was Common Sense, which unfortunately is not so common anymore.
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