- FLORIDA: Biden 45 - Carson 42
- OHIO: Carson 46 - Biden 42
- PENNSYLVANIA: Carson 47 - Biden 42
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Donald Trump is ahead among Republicans in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, while former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton holds her leads but loses ground among Democrats in all three states, but Vice President Joseph Biden and Dr. Ben Carson are the best general election candidates in these key swing states, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today.
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Clinton and Trump continue to have the worst overall favorability ratings among all voters of any of the leading candidates, and the lowest scores for being honest and trustworthy, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. The Swing State Poll focuses on Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania because since 1960 no candidate has won the presidential race without taking at least two of these three states.
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Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Ohio Gov. John Kasich both are losing their native son support among Republicans, while the leading contenders for the Republican nomination in these swing states are non-government candidates Trump and Carson and to a lesser degree Carly Fiorina.
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| Looking past the nominations to the top general election vote-getters: |
- Biden gets 45 percent to Carson's 42 percent in Florida;
- Carson gets 46 percent to Biden's 42 percent in Ohio;
- Carson tops Biden 47 - 42 percent in Pennsylvania.
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"Those who were waiting for Donald Trump's campaign to collapse will need to wait longer - at least in the three key states of Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
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"Carly Fiorina and Ben Carson, the other two 'outsider' candidates in the GOP race, seem to be making progress. But Bush, Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas seem to be treading water," Brown added.
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"In the Democratic race, former Secretary Clinton enjoys greater leads than Trump over her declared opponent, Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, and potential opponent, Vice President Joseph Biden, but the vice president is gaining, while she is losing support.
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"When we get past the playoffs to the World Series, the general election face-off, Biden does better against leading Republicans than does Clinton or Sanders. Trump, despite his strong showing in mock Republican primaries, fares worst among the GOP candidates matched against the three Democratic aspirants - giving some credence to pundits who say the billionaire could be every Democrats' favorite GOP nominee."
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Florida
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Trump tops the Republican primary list in Florida with 28 percent, up from 21 percent in Quinnipiac University's August 20 Swing State Poll. Carson has 16 percent with 14 percent for Rubio, 12 percent for Bush, 7 percent for Fiorina and 6 percent for Cruz. No other candidate is over 2 percent and 10 percent are undecided.
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Among Republicans, 29 percent say they would "definitely not support" Trump.
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Clinton leads the Democratic field in Florida with 43 percent, with Sanders and Biden tied at 19 percent each and 13 percent undecided. Only 13 percent would not vote for Clinton.
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| In general election matchups: |
- Biden gets 45 percent to 42 percent for Carson and edges Bush 46 - 42 percent. He tops Fiorina 49 - 38 percent and gets 46 percent to 43 percent for Rubio. Biden beats Trump 52 - 38 percent.
- Clinton gets 43 percent to 44 percent for Bush and gets 45 percent to Carson's 43 percent. She gets 44 percent to 42 percent for Fiorina and 44 percent to Rubio's 45 percent. Clinton tops Trump 46 - 41 percent.
- Sanders slips behind Bush 45 - 41 percent and loses to Carson 46 - 40 percent. He gets 41 percent to 42 percent for Fiorina. He trails Rubio 46 - 41 percent and beats Trump 46 - 41 percent.
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Florida voters give Clinton a negative 44 - 51 percent favorability rating and say 59 - 35 percent that she is not honest and trustworthy.
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Trump gets a negative 35 - 57 percent favorability rating as Florida voters say 54 - 37 percent he is not honest and trustworthy.
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"The generally more energized Republican party members, who backed former Gov. Bush and Sen. Rubio when they ran for office in the Sunshine State, are deserting the establishment candidates for the outsiders - specifically Trump and Carson," Brown said.
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Ohio
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Ohio Republicans go 23 percent for Trump, compared to 21 percent in August. Carson gets 18 percent, with 13 percent for Kasich, 11 percent for Cruz, 10 percent for Fiorina, 7 percent for Rubio and 4 percent for Bush. No other candidate tops 3 percent and 6 percent are undecided. Among Republicans, 29 percent say they would "definitely not support" Trump.
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Clinton leads the Democratic field in Ohio with 40 percent. Biden has 21 percent with 19 percent for Sanders and 11 percent undecided. Only 14 percent would not vote for Clinton.
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| In general election matchups: |
- Biden gets 42 percent to 46 percent for Carson and beats Bush 46 - 37 percent. He gets 44 percent to Fiorina's 42 percent. Biden beats Rubio 46 - 41 percent and thumps Trump 49 - 38 percent.
- Clinton gets 41 percent to 43 percent for Bush and loses to Carson 49 - 40 percent. She gets 41 percent to 43 percent for Fiorina and trails Rubio 41 - 45 percent. Clinton gets 43 percent to Trump's 42 percent.
- Sanders gets 40 percent to 42 percent for Bush and loses to Carson 48 - 36 percent. He trails Fiorina 43 - 39 percent and gets 40 percent to 43 percent for Rubio. Sanders gets 44 percent to Trump's 41 percent.
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Ohio voters give Clinton a negative 38 - 56 percent favorability rating and say 61 - 33 percent she is not honest and trustworthy.
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Trump gets a negative 34 - 58 percent favorability and voters say 54 - 38 percent he is not honest and trustworthy.
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"Gov. John Kasich's big card was his enormous popularity in Ohio, generally considered the most important swing state in the November election," Brown said. "But with Trump zooming well past him in the Buckeye State and Kasich's numbers in Florida and Pennsylvania in low single digits, the Ohio governor's campaign is going in the wrong direction."
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Pennsylvania
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Trump's 23 percent standing among Republicans in Pennsylvania compares to 24 percent August 20. Carson is close with 17 percent, with 12 percent for Rubio, 8 percent for Fiorina, 6 percent for Cruz, 5 percent for New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie and 4 percent each for Bush and Huckabee. No other candidate tops 3 percent and 12 percent are undecided.
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Among Republicans, 31 percent say they would "definitely not support" Trump.
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Clinton drops among Pennsylvania Democrats, from 45 percent August 20 to 36 percent today. Biden is closing in with 25 percent, with Sanders at 19 percent and 10 percent undecided. Among these Democrats, 18 percent would not vote for Clinton.
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| In general election matchups: |
- Biden trails Carson 47 - 42 percent and gets 45 percent to 42 percent for Bush. He gets 44 percent to Fiorina's 43 percent. Biden gets 45 percent to Rubio's 43 percent and beats Trump 50 - 40 percent.
- Clinton trails Bush 46 - 40 percent and loses to Carson 49 - 40 percent. She trails Fiorina 45 - 41 percent and gets 42 percent to 45 percent for Rubio. Clinton gets 44 percent to 42 percent for Trump.
- Sanders gets 42 percent to 44 percent for Bush and loses to Carson 47 - 37 percent. He slips behind Fiorina 44 - 40 percent and trails Rubio 45 - 39 percent. Sanders beats Trump 46 - 41 percent.
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Pennsylvania voters give Clinton a negative 41 - 54 percent favorability rating and say 61 - 34 percent she is not honest and trustworthy.
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Trump gets a negative 36 - 56 percent favorability and voters say 54 - 37 percent he is not honest and trustworthy.
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"Biden rumbles as Clinton stumbles. Undeclared but not underrated in his home state of Pennsylvania, Vice President Joe Biden makes a move on Secretary Hillary Clinton and U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "In tight races with Gov. Jeb Bush, Carly Fiorina and Sen. Marco Rubio, and crushing Trump, Biden makes a home state statement. And in a matchup with Hillary Clinton he's riding high marks on trust and honesty and closing fast."
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| From September 25 - October 5 Quinnipiac University surveyed: |
- 1,173 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The survey includes 461 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points and 411 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percentage points.
- 1,180 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The survey includes 433 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percentage points and 396 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percentage points.
- 1,049 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. The survey includes 427 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percentage points and 442 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percentage points.
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Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.
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The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.
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For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.
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| 1. (If Registered Republican) If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, John Kasich, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, and Donald Trump, for whom would you vote?
Quinnipiac has Trump up in FL 28-16 (up SEVEN from last ) over Carson, 14 Rubio, 12 for Bush, 6 Cruz. OH: Trump 23-18 over Carson (up 2), Kasich 13 (way down), Cruz in 4th with 11 (his best polling anywhere except TX) PA Trump 23-17 over Carson (down one), 12 Rubio, 6 Cruz Q is salvaging that Buden beats Trump and, according to Q Trump's unfavorables have gone 180 back to 35-50. Really pushing the draft Biden movement. |
